Who is going too late?

[CharlieKelly]

While I agree Gesicki is underrated, I think there is a misnomer in thinking that Engram developed faster or was "ready to contribute" last year. He was forced to contribute last year because everyone else on the team got hurt. He certainly wasn't ready and the oft overlooked thing with him is that his efficiency numbers for a TE were dreadfully awful. Eric Ebron is about the only TE that had a worse rookie season from an efficiency standpoint in recent history.

Just curious, which efficiency numbers are you referring to? IIRC, Shepard had similar criticism, so maybe it's something to do with Eli? Also, I'd kinda expect less than great efficiency with him getting more volunteer then just about any rookie TE in memory.

Plus in Miami, it seems very possible Gesicki is the last guy standing at some point when Amendola and Parker are his main competition.

To add onto this, Engram was getting roughly the same amount of targets per game even before OBJ got hurt. The narrative that he was only involved because he was the only guy healthy pretty clearly isn't true.

[FantasyFreak]

Think they were probably referring to the fact Kelly was a borderline dynasty rookie draft first rounder. ADP of 15 pre draft

Yikes. I apologize on that. I had him where he stands now. That must have been pre-combine, right?

[knut45]

Think they were probably referring to the fact Kelly was a borderline dynasty rookie draft first rounder. ADP of 15 pre draft

Yikes. I apologize on that. I had him where he stands now. That must have been pre-combine, right?

No that was for April going of Mizelles work. Think people had him grouped in with Kerryon Johnson

[FantasyFreak]

Think they were probably referring to the fact Kelly was a borderline dynasty rookie draft first rounder. ADP of 15 pre draft

Yikes. I apologize on that. I had him where he stands now. That must have been pre-combine, right?

No that was for April going of Mizelles work. Think people had him grouped in with Kerryon Johnson

Wow. That's insane with that YPC and athleticism score.

[maxhyde]

Hayden Hurst

Agreed

[playa_hata]

Dante Pettis.

I have no idea why there's a narrative that he's just a role player. When I watch his tape I see a legit WR. The way he sucks the ball in reminds me a lot of Hopkins, who had similar measurables. He was drafted in the early 2nd round by probably the 2nd best spot for a WR to go behind Green Bay, to a team with a hot young QB that needs a long-term WR1, yet he's available in the late 2nd round.

x2

[austing]

Anthony Miller. Could turn out to be the best wr from this class and has the best opportunity imo. If he went anywhere else he'd be in the first round. A tier above Washington, Gallup and Pettis and for me it isn't close. He may be above Kirk as well if preseason shows us the that bears will be able to move the ball.

[ninotoreS]

really wish everyone would quit talking about #17 on the Bears... I love ADP steals...

Michael Gallup is going TOO high. Late 1st, early 2nd. He was an early day-2 pick... people are too seduced by that depth chart.

81st pick is more of a late-ish Day 2 pick.

I think some teams dropped him down their board after scouts saw him failing to earn consistent separation at the Senior Bowl practices (although he had some good plays there, despite that).

I have him as the WR6 of this class. 15th overall on my board, currently.

[Vcize]

if preseason shows us the that bears will be able to move the ball.

Is it even possible to show that? Didn't the Bears look like the greatest show on grass last preseason? Obviously it didn't translate over to the regular season then..

[theone]

Courtland Sutton. Surprised I have not seen him on the list yet. Has everything you look for in a receiver. Solid college production with marginal QB. Strong size and athletic profile. He is the one WR in this class who has a good chance to be that dominant "X" receiver. Was right with Moore/Ridley for top receiver pre-draft and was 3rd WR drafted. I routinely see him fall behind WRs who profile more like complimentary/role players (Gallup, Kirk, Pettis, etc.) now. Seems situation is having too big of an effect here. DT/Sanders likely cap cuts next year. Great value dropping into 2nd round for some drafts.

[_stl_rams_fan_]

Kalen Ballage should be going in the first round of every draft

[lukkynumber13]

Kalen Ballage should be going in the first round of every draft

Mrs Ballage, is - is that you? Ma'm, congratulations on your son's success! I'm sorry to inform you that your son won't be long for the NFL, so hopefully he will have pre-paid the property tax on any mansions he may have bought you.

[ninotoreS]

Kalen Ballage should be going in the first round of every draft

I have Ballage higher on my board than I think most do, but he still needs to learn how to play running-back. His tape is infuriating -- he does this pointless little stutter at the LoS on most of his carries, his footwork sucks, and he doesn't run with the power he should have with that frame of his. No instincts, indecisive, poor vision.

Very intriguing as a pass-catcher, though.

[Vcize]

While I agree Gesicki is underrated, I think there is a misnomer in thinking that Engram developed faster or was "ready to contribute" last year. He was forced to contribute last year because everyone else on the team got hurt. He certainly wasn't ready and the oft overlooked thing with him is that his efficiency numbers for a TE were dreadfully awful. Eric Ebron is about the only TE that had a worse rookie season from an efficiency standpoint in recent history.

Just curious, which efficiency numbers are you referring to? IIRC, Shepard had similar criticism, so maybe it's something to do with Eli? Also, I'd kinda expect less than great efficiency with him getting more volunteer then just about any rookie TE in memory.

Plus in Miami, it seems very possible Gesicki is the last guy standing at some point when Amendola and Parker are his main competition.

Catch rate and yards per target, which are the ones PFF really focuses on as having relevance to the efficiency of a receiver.

Engram
Catch Rate: 55.7%
YPT: 6.2

Gronk (rookie year)
Catch Rate: 71.2%
YPT: 9.25

Kelce (first year playing after sitting out rookie year with injury)
Catch Rate: 77.1%
YPT: 9.9

Ebron (rookie year)
Catch Rate: 53.2%
YPT: 5.3

As you can see, from an efficiency measure Engram was a lot more Eric Ebron than he was any of the guys that actually developed into top TEs.

You're not wrong that getting such high volume likely negatively impacted his efficiency relative to other TE prospects but the disparity is beyond large here. And even assuming that if we give him the benefit of the doubt, the narrative that he was really good as a rookie is still not really true. He was really highly targeted as a rookie is all we can say. In terms of ability we can't really say he's any better than NJoku or any of the guys ranked around him because he didn't actually perform any better than them.

In terms of guys in his tier, Hunter Henry is the real standout as having efficiency numbers similar to the other TEs that actually broke out and became top TEs, not Engram.

And just as an indicator of how poor that efficiency is, consider that in Gronk's second year when he put up probably the greatest TE season of all time with 90-1327-17, he had only 9 more targets than Engram had this year. Again I know there is a disparity in quality of target here, but holy cow it's hard to believe the difference in production there on the same number of targets.

Again, Engram could still develop into a top TE, but in terms of his actual quality of play he hasn't really shown any more signs of that than several other guys that are quite a bit cheaper to acquire.

[FantasyFreak]

Kalen Ballage should be going in the first round of every draft

By what logic? 4th round pick who wasn't a great producer at the college level. Curious as to why you feel this way?