Who is going too late?

[ericanadian]

While I agree Gesicki is underrated, I think there is a misnomer in thinking that Engram developed faster or was "ready to contribute" last year. He was forced to contribute last year because everyone else on the team got hurt. He certainly wasn't ready and the oft overlooked thing with him is that his efficiency numbers for a TE were dreadfully awful. Eric Ebron is about the only TE that had a worse rookie season from an efficiency standpoint in recent history.

Just curious, which efficiency numbers are you referring to? IIRC, Shepard had similar criticism, so maybe it's something to do with Eli? Also, I'd kinda expect less than great efficiency with him getting more volunteer then just about any rookie TE in memory.

Plus in Miami, it seems very possible Gesicki is the last guy standing at some point when Amendola and Parker are his main competition.

Catch rate and yards per target, which are the ones PFF really focuses on as having relevance to the efficiency of a receiver.

Engram
Catch Rate: 55.7%
YPT: 6.2

Gronk (rookie year)
Catch Rate: 71.2%
YPT: 9.25

Kelce (first year playing after sitting out rookie year with injury)
Catch Rate: 77.1%
YPT: 9.9

Ebron (rookie year)
Catch Rate: 53.2%
YPT: 5.3

As you can see, from an efficiency measure Engram was a lot more Eric Ebron than he was any of the guys that actually developed into top TEs.

You're not wrong that getting such high volume likely negatively impacted his efficiency relative to other TE prospects but the disparity is beyond large here. And even assuming that if we give him the benefit of the doubt, the narrative that he was really good as a rookie is still not really true. He was really highly targeted as a rookie is all we can say. In terms of ability we can't really say he's any better than NJoku or any of the guys ranked around him because he didn't actually perform any better than them.

In terms of guys in his tier, Hunter Henry is the real standout as having efficiency numbers similar to the other TEs that actually broke out and became top TEs, not Engram.

And just as an indicator of how poor that efficiency is, consider that in Gronk's second year when he put up probably the greatest TE season of all time with 90-1327-17, he had only 9 more targets than Engram had this year. Again I know there is a disparity in quality of target here, but holy cow it's hard to believe the difference in production there on the same number of targets.

Again, Engram could still develop into a top TE, but in terms of his actual quality of play he hasn't really shown any more signs of that than several other guys that are quite a bit cheaper to acquire.

Greg Olson
Catch rate: 59.1%
YPT: 5.92

Jason Witten
Catch Rate: 64.8%
YPT: 6.42

That said, both of those guys were way more well rounded. Guys like Jimmy Graham & Jordan Reed (Receiving 1st TEs) put up comparable numbers to your initial comps. For a comparable receiving 1st TE...

Coby Fleener
Catch Rate: 54.2%
YPT: 5.85

[ninotoreS]

Catch-rate and yards per target are greatly affected by the QB, so it's not fair to put that all on the TE. For example, in Olsen's case there the metrics don't mean much because he had Orton, Grossman, and Brian Griese throwing to him. Grossman only completed 54% of his pass-attempts that year.

[Vcize]

Catch-rate and yards per target are greatly affected by the QB, so it's not fair to put that all on the TE. For example, in Olsen's case there the metrics don't mean much because he had Orton, Grossman, and Brian Griese throwing to him. Grossman only completed 54% of his pass-attempts that year.

Uh, Jason Witten was playing with Quincy Carter, Kelce was with the bad version of Alex Smith, and Reed with the bad version of RG3. All of those guys are notably worse than Eli.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Idk, he had better efficiency on way more targets with a worse QB and much less on offense to pull top coverage off him compared to Ebron. I think with some context it becomes a pretty bad comparison.

I don't own Engram and I'm not trying to buy him at this point (I'm going after Njoku because as you pointed out, he's cheaper), but he's still a guy that's shown top ability and is in line for a lot of targets. That's tough to find at TE.

[Trimble87]

I got Pettis at 2.08 (24 overall) and Chark at 3.01 (33 overall) which I thought was incredibly good value for them.

I personally love Richie James and got him at 4.01 (49 overall) which I think is a bleep steal.

[ArrylT]

Hayden Hurst

Just went 11th overall in one of my rookie drafts.

Pick 1.11:
Rogues selected Hurst, Hayden BAL TE
Waiting on The Cake Eaters for the next pick.

[lic217]

Value picks for me:
Anthony Miller-best wr for me (great value at end of first
Kenyon Johnson-second best rb (great value for a mid first
Jordan Lasley-he looked expolsive in the couple games i watched (can get very late, like him in the third)
Chark-great potential (like him a lot in the third)
Gesecki-an incredible te prospect (like him in early second)

So you'd have taken Kerryon 1.02 if you had that pick? Guessing you didnt have to take him that early to get him on your roster?

No, I got him at 1.06. If I had the 1.02 I would trade down. Then take him

[ninotoreS]

Catch-rate and yards per target are greatly affected by the QB, so it's not fair to put that all on the TE. For example, in Olsen's case there the metrics don't mean much because he had Orton, Grossman, and Brian Griese throwing to him. Grossman only completed 54% of his pass-attempts that year.

Uh, Jason Witten was playing with Quincy Carter, Kelce was with the bad version of Alex Smith, and Reed with the bad version of RG3. All of those guys are notably worse than Eli.

Only Carter was worse than Eli in '17. Alex Smith in '14 had a much better completion percentage and yards-per-attempt (65%, 7.0 ypa), RG3 in '13 had a slightly worse percentage and a much better yards-per-attempt (60%, 7.0 ypa). Obviously, the accuracy and ypa of the QB have a direct impact on receiver catch-rate and yards-per-target.

And yes, '03 Quincy Carter sucked hard, and that's a valid excuse for Canton bound Jason Witten's rookie efficiency being completely outclassed by Gronk's, Kelce's, etc. This is my very point.

So you're wrong about the QB comparisons, but that's tangential.

Reiteration of point: catch-rate and YPT for any receiver is an 'equation' affected by some variables out of the receiver's control (such as the given QB), and thus comparing these metrics in a vacuum isn't a fair method of judging the respective talent/ability/skill of given players.

And by the by, I agree with you that Engram's rookie year performance is grossly overrated in fantasy circles (hideous PFF tape grade of 42 for '17). That doesn't alter my point. You wanna throw shade at Engram, I'm with you, but you need a better argument than comparing circumstantial metrics.

For example:

Engram's drop-rate was fourth-worst amongst all pass-catching TEs in the league (out of 43 qualifiers), dropping 15% of his catchable targets, and he had the third-worst TE blocking grade in the league (out of 74 qualifiers). This demonstrates that Evan Engram was one of the least efficient tight-ends in the NFL last year.

Better argument.

[lukkynumber13]

Mark Walton is an interesting case. Crappy landing spot but not terrible draft capital spent on him. Was anyone expecting him to be drafted higher than early day-3?

If you really believe in his talent, he's basically free.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Regarding Engram, how can you account for efficiency w/o taking into account that for a good part of the season he was the best receiving target NYG had (as a rookie TE, no less)?

His efficiency numbers will likely shoot way up with the presence of OBJ, Barkley & Shepard healthy for the entire year ... my original post several pages ago was not meant to suggest that Engram or Gesicki are the next great TEs but rather to state that since they are earmarked primarily for receiving duties & less so for blocking that their paths to meaningful contributions as rookies is much easier than well-rounded TEs.

[FantasyFreak]

J'Mon Moore in the 4th every draft almost.

[knut45]

Value picks for me:
Anthony Miller-best wr for me (great value at end of first
Kenyon Johnson-second best rb (great value for a mid first
Jordan Lasley-he looked expolsive in the couple games i watched (can get very late, like him in the third)
Chark-great potential (like him a lot in the third)
Gesecki-an incredible te prospect (like him in early second)

So you'd have taken Kerryon 1.02 if you had that pick? Guessing you didnt have to take him that early to get him on your roster?

No, I got him at 1.06. If I had the 1.02 I would trade down. Then take him

Quite the contrarian take, lots of competition for touches on a team that doesnt seem that hasnt seemed that interested in running the ball in the past. will be interested to see how it plays out.

[themburns]

Mark Andrews. When I look at a combination of draft pedigree and production, it seems outlandish that he'd be going in the late 3rd or early 4th. Hurst is ahead of him for the time being, but is probably capped out in his physical development. It's likely that one of the two will bust. Buying the cheaper of the two tickets then, feels only rational.

[Vcize]

Catch-rate and yards per target are greatly affected by the QB, so it's not fair to put that all on the TE. For example, in Olsen's case there the metrics don't mean much because he had Orton, Grossman, and Brian Griese throwing to him. Grossman only completed 54% of his pass-attempts that year.

Uh, Jason Witten was playing with Quincy Carter, Kelce was with the bad version of Alex Smith, and Reed with the bad version of RG3. All of those guys are notably worse than Eli.

Only Carter was worse than Eli in '17. Alex Smith in '14 had a much better completion percentage and yards-per-attempt (65%, 7.0 ypa), RG3 in '13 had a slightly worse percentage and a much better yards-per-attempt (60%, 7.0 ypa). Obviously, the accuracy and ypa of the QB have a direct impact on receiver catch-rate and yards-per-target.

And yes, '03 Quincy Carter sucked hard, and that's a valid excuse for Canton bound Jason Witten's rookie efficiency being completely outclassed by Gronk's, Kelce's, etc. This is my very point.

So you're wrong about the QB comparisons, but that's tangential.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. I am saying in general Eli is a better QB than those guys. We have 15 years of data on Eli to know that while he's not a world beater, he's pretty good. If Eli had a statistically worse season this year and Alex Smith had a better one when Travis Kelce started getting significant targets, part of that is a self fulfilling prophecy. Better quality receivers leads to better efficiency numbers for the QB, too. It works in both directions.

For instance since Kelce started getting meaningful playing time with Alex Smith, Smith's YPA has risen every year and been above his career average every year. Meanwhile with Engram getting the majority of the targets in NY, Eli just posted his career worst YPA other than his rookie year.

So we don't say Alex Smith is a 7.2ypa guy and Eli Manning is a 6.1ypa guy, so obviously Kelce has more to work with. Eli Manning is a higher YPA guy (slightly, but it would be much higher if Smith didn't have those years throwing to Kelce factored in) who's efficiency dropped when his low efficiency TE was getting a lot of work, while Smith's efficiency rose when his high efficiency TE was getting a lot of targets.

For instance Tom Brady put up relatively poor efficiency stats (60% completion, 6.9ypa) that year where he had all those crummy rookie WRs to throw to. We don't say hey, Kembrell Thompkins only had such a low catch rate and YPT because he was catching balls from that lousy 60%/6.9ypa QB, man if only he'd been catching balls from Andy Dalton that year who was obviously much more accurate because his measures were higher in those categories that year, Thompkins would have been much better!

If I told you that Marvin Jones was much more efficient than Kembrell Thompkins in 2013, you wouldn't say that was just because Andy Dalton was a better QB than Tom Brady, even though that's basically what your argument is saying.

Or perhaps another way to look at it. Sterling Shepard has pretty good efficiency numbers this year with Eli (70% catch rate, 8.7ypt) even though he was similarly leaned on often when he played. Engram stands out not just relative to other TEs, but relative to his peers on this year's team, playing with the same QB, as particularly inefficient.

[Vcize]

Regarding Engram, how can you account for efficiency w/o taking into account that for a good part of the season he was the best receiving target NYG had (as a rookie TE, no less)?

His efficiency numbers will likely shoot way up with the presence of OBJ, Barkley & Shepard healthy for the entire year ... my original post several pages ago was not meant to suggest that Engram or Gesicki are the next great TEs but rather to state that since they are earmarked primarily for receiving duties & less so for blocking that their paths to meaningful contributions as rookies is much easier than well-rounded TEs.

I believe I covered that in my original post regarding Engram. It's not that he can't improve and breakout when there is more help around him, it's that his value indicates that he already has.

I'm not even sure I would move Engram down that much in the rankings (though I would have had HH easily ahead of him before the injury), but the perceived value gap of him and the guys around him is as if he's a much better player than them already, when in reality he was just a higher volume player. For instance you could probably get a nice chunk of change to "downgrade" from Engram to Njoku, because most feel Engram is already much "better". But he wasn't actually any better.

As an aside, it's not like Gronk and Kelce had a plethora of other players to keep the attention off them in their high efficiency first seasons. Kelce was actually KC's leading receiver in his first year playing when he posted those awesome efficiency numbers.