2018 Running Back Report

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Shcritters
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Shcritters » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:22 pm

DD - once again, thanks for doing this. I always find it a fascinating read and appreciate that you share this with the public. I am often surprised at where you have players ranked, but every year it makes me think and reevaluate tape/profiles to double check my rankings.

All in all I think I am a better dynasty owner because of your work, so thank you for helping people out and sharing this.
DFFL - Luck Dynasty
12 team PPR Contract/Salary league. $312 cap limit. Starting lineup is QB, RB, RB/WR, 2 WR, WR/TE, plus IDP's (2 LB, 2 CB/S, 2 DL).

QB: Rivers ($20 - 2018), Mayfield ($3 - 2022), Flacco ($1 - 2024)
RB: Gurley ($49 - 2020), MGordon ($49 - 2018), Mixon ($6 - 2023), Connor ($1 - 2024), Chubb ($5 - 2022), Guice ($5 - 2022), Foreman ($2 - 2024)
WR: Julio ($75 - 2019), Diggs ($2 - 2021), ARobinson ($4 - 2018), Cooper ($10 - 2021), JuJu SS ($2 - 2023), JGordon ($24 - 2019), Watkins ($12 - 2020), MWilliams ($7 - 2022), Kirk ($2 - 2024)
2013 and 2017 League Champion

Gopher Two
PPR WR & TE Premium (1.2 PPR for WR, 1.5 for TE), 9 total starters, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex
QB: Mahomes, Mayfield, Carr, Foles
RB: Cook, Crowell, Chubb, Connor, Powell, Richard
WR: Tyreek, MThomas, Davis, Enunwa, Sutton, Dorsett, Doctson, PRichardson, DParker, Treadwell, Hollins
TE: OJHoward, Dissly, Hurst, Shaheen, Vannett, Heuerman, DAllen, Gathers

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Vcize
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Vcize » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:57 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:

It's ok to love a players film but realize they probably won't be that great in the NFL. Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.
Well said. Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust and wondering what ever happened to that Curtis Martin guy that washed out of the league in 2 yrs.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Penny, Lynch, Conner, Foreman
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR, q/r/r/w/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Dak, Mahomes
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, GTate, M Williams, Decker, Enunwa
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

Team 3 (12 Team PPR TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wentz, Luck
RB: Hunt, Ajayi, Kerryon, Foreman, White
WR: OBJ, Cooks, ARob, Richardson, Benjamin, Moncrief, Pettis, Hurns, Lockett
TE: Burton, Rico

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:38 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.
When has this ever worked out? Assuming competent film study, of course. Not a rhetorical question. I personally can't think of any long-term successful NFL RBs that had poor college tape. I'd like to know if there have been, so I can go back and study it.
Vcize wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:57 pm
Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point, but the thing about Michael is that he wasn't particularly impressive in college, either. I consider him an example of the point I made above. According to testing numbers, Michael should have been a golden god in the NFL. But if we had all paid more objective attention to his college tape, and not projected his NFL success based mostly on those jaw-dropping testing numbers, he wouldn't be the infamous, cringe-inducing legend in dynasty he is today.
Vcize wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:49 am
MEuRaH wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:16 am
Mixon not living up to expectations? He had one year of not being given enough carries. He finally gets a chance, and I think he'll make the most of it.
Say what now? Mixon's 178 carries weren't the problem. His 3.5ypc with them were. On a team where Gio Bernard looked pretty dang good when Mixon got hurt and he got a crack at the lead back role down the stretch, no less.
FYI y'all, Mixon graded just fine, according to PFF. He didn't leave yards on the field with his carries, and held his own when asked to pass-protect. This in contrast to, say, Foreman, who graded below replacement-level, but isn't prompting the hand-wringing by his owners that he probably warrants, just because his ypc was decent.

Two other times in recent memory that an RB had a poor ypc mark in his rookie campaign but was graded well by PFF were D. Freeman and L. Bell. I still lol recollecting Numberfire.com harping on and on about Free's "historically bad" rookie year according to their 'net expected points' metric. I'm sure they would've hated Bell, too. Analytics divorced from competent and diligent tape study are ever a path to damnation.
"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure."
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby ericanadian » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:44 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:38 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.
When has this ever worked out? Assuming competent film study, of course. Not a rhetorical question. I personally can't think of any long-term successful NFL RBs that had poor college tape. I'd like to know if there have been, so I can go back and study it.
Vcize wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:57 pm
Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point, but the thing about Michael is that he wasn't particularly impressive in college, either. I consider him an example of the point I made above. According to testing numbers, Michael should have been a golden god in the NFL. But if we had all paid more objective attention to his college tape, and not projected his NFL success based mostly on those jaw-dropping testing numbers, he wouldn't be the infamous, cringe-inducing legend in dynasty he is today.
Vcize wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:49 am
MEuRaH wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:16 am
Mixon not living up to expectations? He had one year of not being given enough carries. He finally gets a chance, and I think he'll make the most of it.
Say what now? Mixon's 178 carries weren't the problem. His 3.5ypc with them were. On a team where Gio Bernard looked pretty dang good when Mixon got hurt and he got a crack at the lead back role down the stretch, no less.
FYI y'all, Mixon graded just fine, according to PFF. He didn't leave yards on the field with his carries, and held his own when asked to pass-protect. This in contrast to, say, Foreman, who graded below replacement-level, but isn't prompting the hand-wringing by his owners that he probably warrants, just because his ypc was decent.

Two other times in recent memory that an RB had a poor ypc mark in his rookie campaign but was graded well by PFF were D. Freeman and L. Bell. I still lol recollecting Numberfire.com harping on and on about Free's "historically bad" rookie year according to their 'net expected points' metric. I'm sure they would've hated Bell, too. Analytics divorced from competent and diligent tape study are ever a path to damnation.
Freeman got moved into an outside zone system and there was almost nobody expecting him to beat out Coleman. In fact, he didn't beat out Coleman, but took over when Coleman went down. Bell lost like twenty pounds. Bell was visibly faster after his rookie year. Freeman's strength in Koetter's man-heavy blocking scheme was his pass-blocking, but he became an elite rusher when the Falcons brought in Shanahan to run an outside zone scheme.
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Carr
RB - Gordon, Martin, Montgomery, Foreman, Booker, Darkwa
WR - Julio, Landry, C. Davis, Watkins, C. Williams, Pettis, Beasley
TE - Kelce, Henry, Clay
LB - Kuechly, Lee, McMillan
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - D. James, Vaccaro
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:56 pm

there was almost nobody expecting [D. Freeman] to beat out Coleman
Er, I did. Post history here proves it, too. Tevin had glaring flaws on tape at Indiana, but people were too enamored with the 2k yards against bad Big Ten defenses and too concerned with Freeman's mediocre rookie ypc without understanding of his tape or its context (i.e. Atlanta's awful run-blocking in '14).

Plus Freeman had been consistently outperforming Coleman in OTAs, minicamp, and the first week of training-camp until the hamstring injury that caused him to miss every exhibition game and start the season behind Coleman. Of course, that didn't last.
Bell lost like twenty pounds. Bell was visibly faster after his rookie year.
Bell isn't 210lbs now. We don't know how much he lost, but it wasn't twenty. Probably more like 5-10lbs.

Bell's quickness improved after his rookie year, but his rookie year tape nonetheless showed all the signs of a quality 3-down player, bellcow, and mismatch pass-catcher that was in the process of ascending.
Freeman's strength in Koetter's man-heavy blocking scheme was his pass-blocking
In 2014? Freeman struggled with pass-protection. Google it, if you need to. I remember it being widely reported. He was immediately a good pass-catcher as a rookie; maybe that's what you're remembering. Specifically in pass-protection, Freeman was graded second worst on the 2014 depth-chart. His overall good grade for '14 was mostly thanks to him not leaving yards on the field with his 68 carries and being a good receiver. Freeman's rookie year tape showed a player that was likely to blossom if his O-line improved. Which, fatefully, it then did.
but he became an elite rusher when the Falcons brought in Shanahan to run an outside zone scheme
Shany improves most of his backs, historically. He helped Tevin Coleman overachieve, too.

But the biggest difference Shany made to Freeman and Coleman in '15 was not so much the change in scheme as the instant overhaul of the O-line to make it a respectably performing unit for the first time in years.


As I stated previously, Mixon's situation and status heading into his second season shows many parallels to these two players when they were heading into their second seasons.

I'm not even a Mixon supporter, really. I own no shares, because I don't want to roster a PoS that sucker-punched a lady hard enough to require reconstructive surgery, immediately fled the scene without so much as a backward glance, and didn't apologize to his victim for a year. But objectively, Mixon's dynasty-fantasy profile is looking good right now.
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby jomaed » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:21 pm

Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?
14 Team SF - Balanced Scoring

QB - Wilson / Mariota / Webb
RB - McCoy / Miller / Foreman / Blount / Murray / Ekeler / D Henderson
WR - OBJ / Baldwin / Sutton / Sanders / Lee / Crowder / Stills / Cobb / Stewart / Samuel / Chalk
TE - Howard / Walker
D/ST - LAC / SEA

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:34 pm

titans44 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:21 pm
Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?
Interesting question. If we go back 10-15 years or so we get 15 on a list in some form or fashion and 14 not on a list. So I guess roughly half will land on some form of a list. A little less than 1/3 will get on the "stud" list.

Barkley
Penny

Michel
Fournette
CMC
Zeke
Gurley - no athletic testing
Gordon

Predictions started above

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin

David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brown
Beanie Wells
McFadden
JStew
Felix Jones
Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
AP
Lynch

Reggie Bush
Moroney
DeAngelo Williams
Addai

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby jomaed » Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:08 am

Awesome response to my question. Very interesting results. Thanks!
14 Team SF - Balanced Scoring

QB - Wilson / Mariota / Webb
RB - McCoy / Miller / Foreman / Blount / Murray / Ekeler / D Henderson
WR - OBJ / Baldwin / Sutton / Sanders / Lee / Crowder / Stills / Cobb / Stewart / Samuel / Chalk
TE - Howard / Walker
D/ST - LAC / SEA

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby ArrylT » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:27 pm

bump per tennisbuck request.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:26 am

This is a little vague.
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:28 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:34 pm
titans44 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:21 pm
Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?
Interesting question. If we go back 10-15 years or so we get 15 on a list in some form or fashion and 14 not on a list. So I guess roughly half will land on some form of a list. A little less than 1/3 will get on the "stud" list.

Barkley
Penny

Michel
Fournette
CMC
Zeke
Gurley - no athletic testing
Gordon

Predictions started above

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin

David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brown
Beanie Wells
McFadden
JStew
Felix Jones
Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
AP
Lynch

Reggie Bush
Moroney
DeAngelo Williams
Addai
You misspelled Carson. In all seriousness, though, thanks again for all the work.
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby jman3134 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:53 am

The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.

That said, I am willing to bet Kerryon falls into that outlier tier within the next two years.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield
Rb: Saquon Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler, Chase Edmonds, De'Lance Turner
Wr: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, AJ Green,
Allen Robinson, Cameron Meredith, John Ross, Laquon Treadwell, John Brown, Allen Hurns, Taywan Taylor, Keelan Cole, Jake Kumerow, Jordan Matthews
Te: Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, OJ Howard, George Kittle, Dan Arnold
K: Kai'imi Fairbarn
D: New York Jets
Taxi: Brandon Zylstra, Detrez Newsome, Chris Warren, Mike Boone, Richie James
2019: Picks 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 10

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby dynastyninja » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:13 am

jman3134 wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:53 am
The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.
To be clear, it's not, yet. We haven't had near enough time to see if the model is actually able to accurately predict three 1000-yard seasons consistently. The only unconventional hit we have is DJ. The jury is still out on Henry, Foreman, and now Penny.
Bye Every Week (14 team PPR, 1QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE)
QB: Rodgers, Luck, Winston
RB: Bell, Lacy, Anderson, Ingram, Spiller, Miller
WR: Brown, Julio, DT, Dez, Evans, Jordy, Perriman, Randle, Tampa Mike
TE: Graham, Gronk

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby jman3134 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:23 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:13 am
jman3134 wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:53 am
The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.
To be clear, it's not, yet. We haven't had near enough time to see if the model is actually able to accurately predict three 1000-yard seasons consistently. The only unconventional hit we have is DJ. The jury is still out on Henry, Foreman, and now Penny.
He parsed out a lot of dog top picks, which is what you want. Jones-Drew wasn't a given as a second round pick. It was unconventional to write off some of the top drafted rb picks historically. Reggie Bush, for instance, would have been wildly counter consensus at the time he was drafted.

I never suggested the model is statistically viable yet as a predictive tool given the sample size, but so far so good.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield
Rb: Saquon Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler, Chase Edmonds, De'Lance Turner
Wr: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, AJ Green,
Allen Robinson, Cameron Meredith, John Ross, Laquon Treadwell, John Brown, Allen Hurns, Taywan Taylor, Keelan Cole, Jake Kumerow, Jordan Matthews
Te: Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, OJ Howard, George Kittle, Dan Arnold
K: Kai'imi Fairbarn
D: New York Jets
Taxi: Brandon Zylstra, Detrez Newsome, Chris Warren, Mike Boone, Richie James
2019: Picks 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 10

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Bot101 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:44 am

Well unfortunately we probably won't get to see if Foreman would have hit due to the seriousness and likely long term effects of his injury.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker Mayfield

WR: Odell Beckham Jr, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Taywan Taylor, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson

RB: Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Jamaal Williams, Derrius Guice (IR), Tarik Cohen, Chase Edmonds, Bilal Powell

TE: Tyler Eifert, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas

D: Eagles, Chargers


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