2018 Running Back Report

[ericanadian]

Sent my contribution. I still like Foreman even if I think he kicks it outside a little too often.

[pokerface40]

DD, do you like Jordan Wilkins, Ballage, Walton, or John Kelly very much?

Did not get around to watching them. That's one of those things where if it was paid I could add the "lesser" rb's like that in. I believe in watching as many games on each player as possible, so it takes quite a while for each player.

But aren't the tiers formed strictly on numerical data and the tape you watch is just for context? Seems like you could plug these guys into your secret formula and at least know which tier they fall in.

Regardless nice job DD, I'm glad I own four tier 3 backs in our league haha.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Every rookie is “plugged into the formula”. If they’re not listed that means they simply don’t qualify. By add in I meant give a scouting report on them like I did with the other ones who don’t qualify such as Sony, Kerryon, etc.

[Kramer]

Thanks, DD. It was great to read as always. Very happy that I was able to get 3 of the top 4 RBs on your list in one of my rookie drafts last weekend (Barkley, Guice, Chubb). One more rookie draft to go.

[jonf86]

Thanks DD! Contributed $5......well worth it. Sorry if I missed it, but do you think it's worthwhile to consider age in your analysis? Let's just look at Penny v Guice for since they're so close in your rankings. Should we give Guice a slight bump because he's almost 1 1/2 years younger and compiled his stats while often times being one of the younger players on the field?

[lukkynumber13]

Is level of competition taken into account? I'm thinking specifically about Penny, at SDSU.

[Bot101]

Is level of competition taken into account? I'm thinking specifically about Penny, at SDSU.

I was wondering this as well. I have a tough decision June 1st after my 1.01 pick. Penny or Guice. I think the volume will be heavily in Penny's favor, but I like Guice talent better.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Is level of competition taken into account? I'm thinking specifically about Penny, at SDSU.

In terms of the RB Report, no. I think people put way too much emphasis on that. As with the age thing below, sure it should be taken into consideration. But it shouldn't be something that completely steers you away from a player.

Thanks DD! Contributed $5......well worth it. Sorry if I missed it, but do you think it's worthwhile to consider age in your analysis? Let's just look at Penny v Guice for since they're so close in your rankings. Should we give Guice a slight bump because he's almost 1 1/2 years younger and compiled his stats while often times being one of the younger players on the field?

Thanks, appreciate it very much. Yes, age probably should be a factor in your decision. How much is really up to you.

I have a tough decision June 1st after my 1.01 pick. Penny or Guice. I think the volume will be heavily in Penny's favor, but I like Guice talent better.

Go with who you think will be the better player. The volume stuff will work its way out.

[DJB]

Excellent work as usual DD! !!!

[Krypto_King]

Good stuff DD as usual. If you did this report (I know very hypothetical), after Chubb's Freshman and pre-injury Sophomore year I wonder where he would stand. I am curious to how much lack of burst you observed is due to his knee injury. I think there is a big difference from him his Junior year to his Senior year with his burst and decisiveness. Honestly, I think his Freshman year he was the best Georgia back and yes Gurley was on that team.

Disclaimer: I get it is hard to know what his measurables were his Freshman/Sophomore year. I am just curious if you watched any of those cut-ups and how they compared to his Senior year.

Great stuff man!

Luckily we have some pre-injury numbers from his Senior year of HS. 217lbs, 4.47 40, 40.8" vert (measured differently than combine)
https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... ening-2013

[knut45]

Great work as always

[BigBawseRoss]

also wondering how you feel about Foreman post injury. i have many shares and am hoping for the best but seems like its a "time will tell" situation that cant be guessed upon

[ninotoreS]

Note on Chase Edmonds -- Religious preference to go to the outside. When taking it inside, appeared to only do so reluctantly. Going to the outside so often worked great in the FCS where the defenses usually weren't fast enough for effective edge contain. One of the two comparisons used here for him is Woodhead, but I think that disparages Woodhead, who was never afraid to run between the tackles. There's a lot to like with Edmonds -- lateral agility, first-step burst, contact-balance, great pass-catcher -- but if he's allergic to the interior he'll never be a truly great scatback, because the best ones still run well enough between the tackles to force the linebackers and strong-safeties to respect the possibility of an effective carry up the gut. James White or Shane Vereen might be the best comp for Edmonds.

I disagree with the notion Michel is similar to Edmonds. I think that's borderline ridiculous. While Michel may indeed be used as a rocked up scheme-back for the Pats, and I too have doubts about Michel and question his 1st round selection (much of his NFL prospect evaluation seems to be projection of his potential, rather than empirically rooted in his current tape reality), Michel certainly isn't frightened of square-on contact and interior carries. Michel can probably stay involved at the goal-line and other short-yardage situations. Different story with Edmonds. That's a potentially massive difference for FF.

edit: This particular carry epitomizes Edmonds' north-south allergy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE79U8esI40&t=260s. Note this is from 2016, when Edmonds was fully healthy and in his peak collegiate form, and this was the only FBS level defense he faced that year (he was even worse against Army in 2017).

I felt like that breakdown focused way too much on things out of Penny's control, like the holes he got to run through and the yards after contact stat. It's more a video on the Penny narrative rather than Penny himself.

I think Sam Gold is gold, but suit yourself.

Note on Rashaad Penny -- Like Michel, Penny is a 1-speed runner, and this hindered his ability to create for himself whenever the LoS caved in too quickly. When Penny had to deal with early penetration behind the LoS, he was very average in his ability to escape it. Penny wasn't exceptional breaking tackles -- even arm-tackles -- if he wasn't already moving at speed.

This is noteworthy because with Seattle this year, he's probably gonna see a lot of early penetration.

I know why Seattle adores him, though; Penny sees the so-called 'dark creases' better than most of the RBs in this class. Seattle's run-game philosophy has been based around it since Lynch. C-Mike's (repeated) fall from grace in Seattle is partly because he could never see them well enough for the staff's liking. Unfortunately, Seattle's O-line these days is much less effective at creating creases, 'dark' or otherwise.

[hockeyBjj]

HALLELUJAH IT IS HERE!!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Note on Chase Edmonds

edit: This particular carry epitomizes Edmonds' north-south allergy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE79U8esI40&t=260s. Note this is from 2016, when Edmonds was fully healthy and in his peak collegiate form, and this was the only FBS level defense he faced that year (he was even worse against Army in 2017).

I could post a clip of Saquon Barkley doing nearly the exact same thing (4 minute mark for mobile users). The point being, a RB doing something once or even multiple times in college does not inherently define their NFL outlook. I saw enough to where I think he can capably run inside if he needs to in the NFL, you apparently didn't. We can agree to disagree, I'm not going to die on the Chase Edmonds hill.