2018 Running Back Report

[Shcritters]

DD - once again, thanks for doing this. I always find it a fascinating read and appreciate that you share this with the public. I am often surprised at where you have players ranked, but every year it makes me think and reevaluate tape/profiles to double check my rankings.

All in all I think I am a better dynasty owner because of your work, so thank you for helping people out and sharing this.

[Vcize]

It's ok to love a players film but realize they probably won't be that great in the NFL. Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.

Well said. Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust and wondering what ever happened to that Curtis Martin guy that washed out of the league in 2 yrs.

[ninotoreS]

Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.

When has this ever worked out? Assuming competent film study, of course. Not a rhetorical question. I personally can't think of any long-term successful NFL RBs that had poor college tape. I'd like to know if there have been, so I can go back and study it.

Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point, but the thing about Michael is that he wasn't particularly impressive in college, either. I consider him an example of the point I made above. According to testing numbers, Michael should have been a golden god in the NFL. But if we had all paid more objective attention to his college tape, and not projected his NFL success based mostly on those jaw-dropping testing numbers, he wouldn't be the infamous, cringe-inducing legend in dynasty he is today.

Mixon not living up to expectations? He had one year of not being given enough carries. He finally gets a chance, and I think he'll make the most of it.

Say what now? Mixon's 178 carries weren't the problem. His 3.5ypc with them were. On a team where Gio Bernard looked pretty dang good when Mixon got hurt and he got a crack at the lead back role down the stretch, no less.

FYI y'all, Mixon graded just fine, according to PFF. He didn't leave yards on the field with his carries, and held his own when asked to pass-protect. This in contrast to, say, Foreman, who graded below replacement-level, but isn't prompting the hand-wringing by his owners that he probably warrants, just because his ypc was decent.

Two other times in recent memory that an RB had a poor ypc mark in his rookie campaign but was graded well by PFF were D. Freeman and L. Bell. I still lol recollecting Numberfire.com harping on and on about Free's "historically bad" rookie year according to their 'net expected points' metric. I'm sure they would've hated Bell, too. Analytics divorced from competent and diligent tape study are ever a path to damnation.

[ericanadian]

Conversely it's ok to dislike a players film but acknowledge that they very well make for a good NFL RB.

When has this ever worked out? Assuming competent film study, of course. Not a rhetorical question. I personally can't think of any long-term successful NFL RBs that had poor college tape. I'd like to know if there have been, so I can go back and study it.

Otherwise we would all be prepping Christine Michael's Canton bust

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point, but the thing about Michael is that he wasn't particularly impressive in college, either. I consider him an example of the point I made above. According to testing numbers, Michael should have been a golden god in the NFL. But if we had all paid more objective attention to his college tape, and not projected his NFL success based mostly on those jaw-dropping testing numbers, he wouldn't be the infamous, cringe-inducing legend in dynasty he is today.

Mixon not living up to expectations? He had one year of not being given enough carries. He finally gets a chance, and I think he'll make the most of it.

Say what now? Mixon's 178 carries weren't the problem. His 3.5ypc with them were. On a team where Gio Bernard looked pretty dang good when Mixon got hurt and he got a crack at the lead back role down the stretch, no less.

FYI y'all, Mixon graded just fine, according to PFF. He didn't leave yards on the field with his carries, and held his own when asked to pass-protect. This in contrast to, say, Foreman, who graded below replacement-level, but isn't prompting the hand-wringing by his owners that he probably warrants, just because his ypc was decent.

Two other times in recent memory that an RB had a poor ypc mark in his rookie campaign but was graded well by PFF were D. Freeman and L. Bell. I still lol recollecting Numberfire.com harping on and on about Free's "historically bad" rookie year according to their 'net expected points' metric. I'm sure they would've hated Bell, too. Analytics divorced from competent and diligent tape study are ever a path to damnation.

Freeman got moved into an outside zone system and there was almost nobody expecting him to beat out Coleman. In fact, he didn't beat out Coleman, but took over when Coleman went down. Bell lost like twenty pounds. Bell was visibly faster after his rookie year. Freeman's strength in Koetter's man-heavy blocking scheme was his pass-blocking, but he became an elite rusher when the Falcons brought in Shanahan to run an outside zone scheme.

[ninotoreS]

there was almost nobody expecting [D. Freeman] to beat out Coleman

Er, I did. Post history here proves it, too. Tevin had glaring flaws on tape at Indiana, but people were too enamored with the 2k yards against bad Big Ten defenses and too concerned with Freeman's mediocre rookie ypc without understanding of his tape or its context (i.e. Atlanta's awful run-blocking in '14).

Plus Freeman had been consistently outperforming Coleman in OTAs, minicamp, and the first week of training-camp until the hamstring injury that caused him to miss every exhibition game and start the season behind Coleman. Of course, that didn't last.

Bell lost like twenty pounds. Bell was visibly faster after his rookie year.

Bell isn't 210lbs now. We don't know how much he lost, but it wasn't twenty. Probably more like 5-10lbs.

Bell's quickness improved after his rookie year, but his rookie year tape nonetheless showed all the signs of a quality 3-down player, bellcow, and mismatch pass-catcher that was in the process of ascending.

Freeman's strength in Koetter's man-heavy blocking scheme was his pass-blocking

In 2014? Freeman struggled with pass-protection. Google it, if you need to. I remember it being widely reported. He was immediately a good pass-catcher as a rookie; maybe that's what you're remembering. Specifically in pass-protection, Freeman was graded second worst on the 2014 depth-chart. His overall good grade for '14 was mostly thanks to him not leaving yards on the field with his 68 carries and being a good receiver. Freeman's rookie year tape showed a player that was likely to blossom if his O-line improved. Which, fatefully, it then did.

but he became an elite rusher when the Falcons brought in Shanahan to run an outside zone scheme

Shany improves most of his backs, historically. He helped Tevin Coleman overachieve, too.

But the biggest difference Shany made to Freeman and Coleman in '15 was not so much the change in scheme as the instant overhaul of the O-line to make it a respectably performing unit for the first time in years.


As I stated previously, Mixon's situation and status heading into his second season shows many parallels to these two players when they were heading into their second seasons.

I'm not even a Mixon supporter, really. I own no shares, because I don't want to roster a PoS that sucker-punched a lady hard enough to require reconstructive surgery, immediately fled the scene without so much as a backward glance, and didn't apologize to his victim for a year. But objectively, Mixon's dynasty-fantasy profile is looking good right now.

[jomaed]

Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?

Interesting question. If we go back 10-15 years or so we get 15 on a list in some form or fashion and 14 not on a list. So I guess roughly half will land on some form of a list. A little less than 1/3 will get on the "stud" list.

Barkley
Penny
Michel
Fournette
CMC
Zeke
Gurley - no athletic testing
Gordon

Predictions started above

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brown
Beanie Wells
McFadden
JStew
Felix Jones
Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
AP
Lynch
Reggie Bush
Moroney
DeAngelo Williams
Addai

[jomaed]

Awesome response to my question. Very interesting results. Thanks!

[ArrylT]

bump per tennisbuck request.

[FantasyFreak]

This is a little vague.

[FantasyFreak]

Is it rare for a 1st round draft pick to miss all of your lists? I am not a huge fan of Michel, but he seems to fit the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in RBs now. Do you think he slipped through a crack, or is this pretty common with you formula?

Interesting question. If we go back 10-15 years or so we get 15 on a list in some form or fashion and 14 not on a list. So I guess roughly half will land on some form of a list. A little less than 1/3 will get on the "stud" list.

Barkley
Penny
Michel
Fournette
CMC
Zeke
Gurley - no athletic testing
Gordon

Predictions started above

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Donald Brown
Beanie Wells
McFadden
JStew
Felix Jones
Mendenhall
Chris Johnson
AP
Lynch
Reggie Bush
Moroney
DeAngelo Williams
Addai

You misspelled Carson. In all seriousness, though, thanks again for all the work.

[jman3134]

The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.

That said, I am willing to bet Kerryon falls into that outlier tier within the next two years.

[dynastyninja]

The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.

To be clear, it's not, yet. We haven't had near enough time to see if the model is actually able to accurately predict three 1000-yard seasons consistently. The only unconventional hit we have is DJ. The jury is still out on Henry, Foreman, and now Penny.

[jman3134]

The hit rate on this report is pretty remarkable.

To be clear, it's not, yet. We haven't had near enough time to see if the model is actually able to accurately predict three 1000-yard seasons consistently. The only unconventional hit we have is DJ. The jury is still out on Henry, Foreman, and now Penny.

He parsed out a lot of dog top picks, which is what you want. Jones-Drew wasn't a given as a second round pick. It was unconventional to write off some of the top drafted rb picks historically. Reggie Bush, for instance, would have been wildly counter consensus at the time he was drafted.

I never suggested the model is statistically viable yet as a predictive tool given the sample size, but so far so good.

[Bot101]

Well unfortunately we probably won't get to see if Foreman would have hit due to the seriousness and likely long term effects of his injury.