2018 Running Back Report

[Servo]

I think people see Penny going 27th overall and now need justification as to why it happened. We've been told Guice + Chubb + Michel for the last ~5/6 months, so I'm not going to fault anyone who are now reassessing Penny as a top rookie pick.

If Penny went in the 2nd Round like all of these other guys, would anyone consider him between 1.02-1.04? Probably not, and the people who would, probably would be considered "reaching".

Supposedly Seattle tried to trade up to get Penny, and Cleveland really liked him. I get we don't want to get blinded by what's taken place but it's tough.

[Johnny Canuck]

Third, the most disappointing thing about Ronald Jones' predraft process to me was that we didn't get a full athletic profile, in part because I knew then he would be an *incomplete* in your report. Don't give away the recipe, but if you had to color in athletic measures (ranges even) given his combine size and his collegiate production, what would it take for him to be in the top tier or fake bellcow tier?

First, great work DD. This is quite something, very impressive.

now re the bolded section, not going to lie, I was also somewhat curious about this? obviously we don't know your process so we have no idea if this is difficult or not to produce, but say Rojo put up a combine similar to that of Jeremy Langford, would that place him in any specific tier?

Jeremy Langford per Player Profiler
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jeremy-langford/

NFL combine
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jer ... id=2552379

*picked Langford because he ran a 4.42 40 at the combine, Rojo was timed running a 4.41 coming out of high school, and they have semi similar height/wt. Obvs it's a very loose athletic comparison, but couldn't think of anyone else. Maybe Jamaal Charles, if you knock his athletic numbers down a bit.

[MEuRaH]

This is an incredible write-up. The amount of work you put into it is probably more than the amount of work I've put into anything in fantasy football ever.

Too bad it's going to be DESTROYED this year. I agree with some but most I don't.

OPINIONS:
-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.
-- Chubb is a thumper. Good in standard, but not valuable in PPR (think Frank Gore).
-- Michel will indeed catch a ton of passes. The Patriots will finally settle on 1 RB to do most of the work, week-in and week-out.
-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.
-- Royce Freeman is going to fair very well in Denver if they switch to zone, otherwise a bust.
-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.
-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand? Recipe for disaster. This is what killed Bryce Brown: tons of talent, but can't do the little things like keeping the ball safe. Talented kid though. If he fixes the minor issues, he'll be great. I just don't have confidence that he will.

BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class.

===============================================

That said, I love how everyone puts it all out there. You could be 100% entirely wrong, but I'm confident that you'll come back next year and do another write-up just like this. It's awesome to read and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I love reading the little stuff because it makes me think and reconsider my opinions. When it challenges my thoughts, that's how you know it's well-written.

Great stuff!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've adopted the methodology of adjusting those 40 times .05 slower to account for the "home field advantage." So he likely would have had to exceed expectations. Then to compound the problem he didn't do his agility drills, bench, etc.

It's hard to decipher just what it means for a player to not be healthy at the combine/pro day. On one hand you could say it's a warning that this player won't be able to stay healthy in the NFL. On the other, all of the major outliers have missed the combine due to injury or illness and it's kind of a shame we don't have a complete accurate data set on them in order to figure out what their success means in the grand scheme of things.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.

-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.

-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand?

1) I feel like not watching college football has it's advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is I don't get sucked into the hype. The disadvantage is I have somewhat limited games to watch, it's whatever is up on youtube. Ultimately he just doesn't seem all that talented to me. I couldn't tell you one thing he does at an above-average level except for that he seems to be trying really hard.

2) Penny would have to be extraordinarily bad in order for that to happen.

3) You may very well be correct, I just went back and watched a game or two to verify and he does carry it an awful lot in his right hand. He did carry it in his left some also, here's just one example http://youtu.be/WqiCIQxOABY?t=3m14s . Why he didn't do that for every run to the left I have no idea. I probably noticed the occasional left-hander here and there and didn't think too much of it.
Tevin Coleman is a guy who only carried it in his right. The comp to him must have been some sort of subliminal message to myself.

[dynastyninja]

This is an incredible write-up. The amount of work you put into it is probably more than the amount of work I've put into anything in fantasy football ever.

Too bad it's going to be DESTROYED this year. I agree with some but most I don't.

OPINIONS:
-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.
-- Chubb is a thumper. Good in standard, but not valuable in PPR (think Frank Gore).
-- Michel will indeed catch a ton of passes. The Patriots will finally settle on 1 RB to do most of the work, week-in and week-out.
-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.
-- Royce Freeman is going to fair very well in Denver.
-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.
-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand? Recipe for disaster. This is what killed Bryce Brown: tons of talent, but can't do the little things like keeping the ball safe. Talented kid though. If he fixes the minor issues, he'll be great. I just don't have confidence that he will.

BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class.

===============================================

That said, I love how everyone puts it all out there. You could be 100% entirely wrong, but I'm confident that you'll come back next year and do another write-up just like this. It's awesome to read and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I love reading the little stuff because it makes me think and reconsider my opinions. When it challenges my thoughts, that's how you know it's well-written.

Great stuff!

Big Ballage fan here, so I agree that I think he's a huge steal. Nothing about Kerryon Johnson is elite, though. I really don't see it at all.

[Vcize]

1) I feel like not watching college football has it's advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is I don't get sucked into the hype. The disadvantage is I have somewhat limited games to watch, it's whatever is up on youtube. Ultimately he just doesn't seem all that talented to me. I couldn't tell you one thing he does at an above-average level except for that he seems to be trying really hard.

I think Kerryon's biggest asset is his short area burst, which looks quite good on tape to me. That meshes well with his patient, Le'Veon-esque running style.

Of course he lacks everything else that makes Le'Veon good as he has poor lateral agility, really poor top end speed (as you mentioned, it almost looks like he slows down once he gets behind the defense because guys catch him so fast), a less compact body type, and is not noteworthy as a receiver. But if he succeeds, patience+burst will be what gets him there I think.

[IBall2]

If Penny went in the 2nd Round like all of these other guys, would anyone consider him between 1.02-1.04? Probably not, and the people who would, probably would be considered "reaching".

For what it's worth, I made this comment pre-NFL draft so I didn't really care if he was the second RB picked or the 8th RB picked like Guice.

I've had Penny in the middle 1st round picks for a while, I have him in a tier of Michel/Chubb/Penny/Jones. I'm definitely going to look back at the tape again, now that the combine is over and see if I can learn anything more. I currently own 1.04 in 1 league and 1.06 in another. I wouldn't shy away from picking him at 1.04 if the landing spot seems ideal.

Pulled it from this thread viewtopic.php?f=5&t=153294&start=15

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I’m sensing a friendly wager, Penny vs Kerryon. First to 1,000 yard season maybe?

[cantguardjake]

<deleted>

[Cameron Giles]

I think as amateur scouts we need to be open to professional analysis as well, and how the draft went, however. If you had Guice and Penny close in your pre-drafft rankings, you need to consider taking Penny ahead of him. It's not like Penny was taken just ahead of Guice, positionally speaking. There were at least 4 backs taken after Penny before Guice went off the board. Remember a few years when Ajayi was a top 5ish rookie pick in the FF community pre-draft? Somtimes players are overvalued because we aren't in the loop of the professional game. If it wasn't even close in your rankings, and Guice was way ahead, stick with that. Ultimately it's your Fantasy Team, and it's better to be wrong about a guy that you wanted, than to be wrong with a guy someone else said was better, and you passed on a guy you wanted for him.

I used to agree with the mentality to trust professional scouting, but lately I've also realized that professional scouts are wrong...a lot. I definitely couldn't do a better job, but I think more people should be open to questioning scouts and conventional wisdom.

[TB3falcons]

This is an incredible write-up. The amount of work you put into it is probably more than the amount of work I've put into anything in fantasy football ever.

Too bad it's going to be DESTROYED this year. I agree with some but most I don't.

OPINIONS:
-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.
-- Chubb is a thumper. Good in standard, but not valuable in PPR (think Frank Gore).
-- Michel will indeed catch a ton of passes. The Patriots will finally settle on 1 RB to do most of the work, week-in and week-out.
-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.
-- Royce Freeman is going to fair very well in Denver.
-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.
-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand? Recipe for disaster. This is what killed Bryce Brown: tons of talent, but can't do the little things like keeping the ball safe. Talented kid though. If he fixes the minor issues, he'll be great. I just don't have confidence that he will.

BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class.

===============================================

That said, I love how everyone puts it all out there. You could be 100% entirely wrong, but I'm confident that you'll come back next year and do another write-up just like this. It's awesome to read and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I love reading the little stuff because it makes me think and reconsider my opinions. When it challenges my thoughts, that's how you know it's well-written.

Great stuff!

RoJo fumbled once every 207 touches. Michel fumbled once every 56 touches. Who’s more likely to be benched???

[BigBawseRoss]

This is an incredible write-up. The amount of work you put into it is probably more than the amount of work I've put into anything in fantasy football ever.

Too bad it's going to be DESTROYED this year. I agree with some but most I don't.

OPINIONS:
-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.
-- Chubb is a thumper. Good in standard, but not valuable in PPR (think Frank Gore).
-- Michel will indeed catch a ton of passes. The Patriots will finally settle on 1 RB to do most of the work, week-in and week-out.
-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.
-- Royce Freeman is going to fair very well in Denver.
-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.
-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand? Recipe for disaster. This is what killed Bryce Brown: tons of talent, but can't do the little things like keeping the ball safe. Talented kid though. If he fixes the minor issues, he'll be great. I just don't have confidence that he will.

BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class.

===============================================

That said, I love how everyone puts it all out there. You could be 100% entirely wrong, but I'm confident that you'll come back next year and do another write-up just like this. It's awesome to read and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I love reading the little stuff because it makes me think and reconsider my opinions. When it challenges my thoughts, that's how you know it's well-written.

Great stuff!

would love for ANYONE EVER to expand on this

[btv802]

-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.

would love for ANYONE EVER to expand on this

Nah it's easier to just vaguely throw it out. People thought Clinton Portis was a little nuts as well but he also had six seasons of 1200-1500 yard production.

[xlur8ed]

-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.

would love for ANYONE EVER to expand on this

Nah it's easier to just vaguely throw it out. People thought Clinton Portis was a little nuts as well but he also had six seasons of 1200-1500 yard production.

Few facts and few things we THINK we know about Guice:

1) He did in fact, say teams questioned his sexuality and mother
2) NFL did an investigation and found no basis or guilty parties for his claims
3) NFL would never ever lie or skew something that could tarnish the image of the juggernaut that is the NFL
4) Teams assumed he made it up, and question his charactor and honesty...well...as well as his ability to be a 'whistleblower' for the stuff that happens behind the scenes in the NFL
5) Guice had a fairly immature interview day(s) before the draft (I have yet to find this 'smoking gun')
6) Guice is 20 years old. How mature were you at 20? Is it inconceivable to assume fame, impending riches, and talent could have an impact on a 20 year old?

I won't make excuses for Guice, I don't know enough facts to judge the kid....nor do I believe anyone does. Any NFL team that isn't straight and narrow (that's most) likely doesn't want someone with a whistleblower mentality on their roster. Furthermore, maybe the kid is a box of rocks relating to his intelligence, and NFL teams worry he won't be able to grasp an NFL playbook (ala: CPatterson).

We know so little, yet allow ourselves to be impacted by this industry 'noise' to the point we completely forget about his talent as a running back. The film that shows him in his element is less considered, whereas the opinions and guesses of the media reign supreme?