2018 Running Back Report

[honcho55]

So I take it the guys like Kelly, ballage, etc, didn’t make the list because it’s purely numbers based? So even had you watched tape they would only make one of the “outlier” tiers?

Sorry I guess I didn’t make that clear. All the lists are numbers based except the list at the bottom with Foster, Gore and McCoy. Those are the rbs that had 3+ 1,000 yard rushing seasons that did not qualify for any list, most importantly the Tier 1 list. I’ll see if I can edit the post tomorrow to clarify that. The film study is more to give context to the players, it does not actually affect the lists in any significant way. Hopefully that makes sense.

This is what I thought yeah, just checking. I think I speak for at least some of the crowd when I say: I love the idea of a purely numbers based criteria. Can take and leave what we want and combine it with our own eyeball tests and whatever else is out there.

[Madadamus]

Glad to know I drafted a Turd Sandwich in our league! Haha. Good stuff DD.

[zelldawg26]

Thank you for your insight. The only unfortunate thing is that all 3 or 4 of those backs won't surpass the first 6 picks, whereas last year Foreman was able to be picked up as late as the 2nd round. Other than that downside, your report seems pretty spot on.

[ravn88]

Really nice work..

I do like Rojo, and I would take him before Chubb.

Have you ever made a Wide Receiver report ?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

While I don’t always agree with you DD, this is a great piece of work. Thank you!

Thanks man, appreciate the generosity.

Glad to know I drafted a Turd Sandwich in our league! Haha. Good stuff DD.

I don't like him, which means he'll be Rookie of the Year.

Nice writeup. I have some thoughts/Q's

1) I agree with most of the Guice stuff but most is negative. Do you think you're getting caught up in group think having him in the top tier or were the positives just too obvious to mention? (size/speed/effort)

Probably just nitpicking more than anything else. The model puts him in the top tier not me.

Thank you for your insight. The only unfortunate thing is that all 3 or 4 of those backs won't surpass the first 6 picks

Yeah pretty unfortunate. Penny was trending in that direction until he went in the 1st

Have you ever made a Wide Receiver report ?

I did try years ago, it's not nearly as straight forward. WR is a much more nuanced position than RB. I have been meaning to try again though now that I have access to more data.

[Toltec]

If you can get this out the week after the draft next year, I will gladly pay. If it takes a few weeks, I will grudgingly pay. Either way I would pony up some cash.

[ericanadian]

Many of the major outliers (Morris, Freeman, Howard, Foster) had the bulk of their success in an offensive scheme with a lot of outside zone. I have no idea how Frank Gore has been as good as he has been.

Anyways, even better work than usual.

[DynoScout]

First, thank you DD for the time/effort/patience that you invest in this report and this thread year over year. I appreciate ya.
Second, I donated $5 and I encourage anyone with PayPal to chip in as well - even if just to keep it free in the future for those who cannot afford to donate.
Third, the most disappointing thing about Ronald Jones' predraft process to me was that we didn't get a full athletic profile, in part because I knew then he would be an *incomplete* in your report. Don't give away the recipe, but if you had to color in athletic measures (ranges even) given his combine size and his collegiate production, what would it take for him to be in the top tier or fake bellcow tier?

[ninotoreS]

Good breakdown [on Penny] I found that highlights his strengths and weaknesses rather fairly imo if anyone is interested. He is a Seahawks fan though so keep that in mind. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvGUlpyDHxI

More impartial alternative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWkE0a2LAKk

[Phaded]

Have not read it yet since its lengthy but I am sure this is high quality - thanks for the effort as always, DD.

[ninotoreS]

Some comments on the Sony Michel segment.

a 1-speed player

Yep. Some people seem to be overlooking this about him.

So long as he's behind a dominant O-line -- which he had at Georgia, and should again have in New England in '18 -- it's less of an issue. But if he's required to be more creative at the first-level, his lack of 'gears' become a concern.

lacks elite burst and long-speed

Burst is all over his tape. It's most of his game. 'Long-speed' can be a nebulous concept, but Michel doesn't get caught from behind often. Some DBs can do it. I suppose that's enough to keep his speed from being termed 'elite', but I feel this is misleading because Michel's speed in the open field should nonetheless translate to chunk-gain ability in the NFL, if perhaps not 90-yard touchdowns.

Was generally given a lot of room to run.

Yes, another important caveat about Michel's performance at Georgia. Michel wasn't asked to gain tough yards, and his YPC reflects this. Michel faced far fewer 8-man boxes than Chubb.

Good acceleration to his top speed and does make some impressive looking stop/start moves or cuts.

Shouldn't 'burst' overlap with this? Well, getting from 0 to 60 very quickly is a major part of Michel's game. I would go so far as to correct you that it's 'elite' acceleration.

Saw him hit the rev limiter and run out of gas once he reached top speed which was hilarious to watch. Almost Ameer Abdullah –like in that regard.

Your two side-by-side metaphors there contradict each other; they mean different things. In Michel's case, 'rev-limiter' is a mis-characterization. 'Running out of gas' gets it right. Michel's stamina is the issue; it was questionable at Georgia.

Presumably this can be corrected with NFL conditioning. Unless he's got sickle-cell or something, I don't see why not.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Good breakdown [on Penny] I found that highlights his strengths and weaknesses rather fairly imo if anyone is interested. He is a Seahawks fan though so keep that in mind. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvGUlpyDHxI

More impartial alternative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWkE0a2LAKk

I felt like that breakdown focused way too much on things out of Penny's control, like the holes he got to run through and the yards after contact stat. It's more a video on the Penny narrative rather than Penny himself.

[murphysxm]

I am the owner of a Turd Sandwich, sweet.

Nice work as always DD

[NJKV]

Good stuff DD as usual. If you did this report (I know very hypothetical), after Chubb's Freshman and pre-injury Sophomore year I wonder where he would stand. I am curious to how much lack of burst you observed is due to his knee injury. I think there is a big difference from him his Junior year to his Senior year with his burst and decisiveness. Honestly, I think his Freshman year he was the best Georgia back and yes Gurley was on that team.

Disclaimer: I get it is hard to know what his measurables were his Freshman/Sophomore year. I am just curious if you watched any of those cut-ups and how they compared to his Senior year.

Great stuff man!

[David]

Just sent you a contribution. Starting following closely last year and it is the best info I have seen on RBs anywhere. I do have a question. As a high % Foreman owner, do you think the achilles injury has moved him out of the stud category?