2018 Running Back Report

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2018 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 11, 2018 8:08 pm

I really would like to keep this report free for those who may not have the means to pay because I really do enjoy the discussion here and I love helping people. That said, I don't know how feasible that will be going forward. It really does take a significant chunk of my time, money and effort to create this report. I'll see how things go with this format again this year and then reassess whether or not to make it a paid report next year. A paid system might have it's advantages as I would likely be able to do both a pre and post NFL Draft report for those of you who start your rookie drafts super early.

That said, If you feel like you've gotten something worthwhile from this report and want to donate, feel free to do so. It really does help a lot and I appreciate everyone whose donated in the past. I will try to make the link visible this time :lol:

ImageCLICK HERE to DONATE


____________________________________________________________


2018 Running Back Report

Hello and welcome. If you're unfamiliar, I started this project 3 years ago because I was tired of not knowing which RB's would be studs and which would bust. Blowing a 1st round rookie pick on a bust is a huge waste of resources and it seemed as if much of it was purely up to chance. I’ve been continually refining my method to identify successful RB’s (this model defines success in terms of 1k yard rushing seasons) and I’m happy with the outcome. I run the numbers of every draft class through my super duper secret calculations that account for a myriad of variables and *beep boop blorp* out comes a nice neat list of quality RB prospects. I think it’s pretty cool that all this is strictly based on numbers and nothing else.

Any RB can have any outcome in the NFL, all I'm trying to do is show you the odds or likelihood of a particular outcome. There will be Rb's not on any of these lists that have done very well for themselves (Devonta Freeman for example). Also, just because a player won’t be rushing for 1k yards doesn’t mean they can’t have fantasy success. Kamara and CMC are some examples of that from just this past year. Some things simply can't be predicted from numbers alone. There are others who are on these lists that have amounted to very little. I did my best to explain what these lists mean, but ultimately it's up to you to decide what to do with the information I'm providing. I did my best to clarify which are the facts and which is my opinion.

This is the best running back class in a decade (since 2008), so it’s no wonder 8 running backs were drafted within the first 71 picks. Statistically speaking this class is even better than the 2017 class. However, it would be a stretch to assume this year’s class will have the same immediate impact as last years’ rookies. Also a word of warning. As you can see in the lists, we’ve been experiencing a bit of an RB renaissance. DO NOT expect these types of RB classes to keep reoccurring year after year after year. If you don’t get a couple of these guys you could be out of luck if the draft classes dry up in upcoming years.

I labeled them by Tiers to keep everything structured but you don’t have to rigidly follow them for value purposes. They give a rough guide but you can judge for yourself. Tier 1 I feel comfortable as the best because they’ve shown far and away the best long-term success. It’s really up for you to decide which type of RB you want to hitch your wagon to, how much risk you want to take. All the tiers are numerical based except the outliers listed at the very bottom of the report. The film study is mostly to give context to each player.

One more thing. Don't take the player comparisons super seriously. Sure, for the most part I tried to be accurate. However I also allowed myself to have a little fun as well.


Alright, enough of that. Let’s get started;

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Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs

2018 - Saquon Barkley
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2018 - Derrius Guice

2017 - Leonard Fournette
2017 - D'Onta Foreman
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2016 - Derrick Henry
2015 - David Johnson
2013 - Le’Veon Bell
2011 - DeMarco Murray
2010 - Ryan Mathews
2008 - Darren McFadden
2008 - Chris Johnson
2008 - Matt Forte
2008 - Jamaal Charles
2008 - Ray Rice
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2007 - Marshawn Lynch
2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 - Steven Jackson
2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson


I’m not going to crunch all the numbers again this year (that seemed to cause problems last year for a few people) but all players on this list (at least the ones who were given ample time and opportunity so far) have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Most have 3+.

Todd Gurley had a great season last year. Unfortunately, I just have no solid athletic testing I can use for him so he is not included even though I believe he would have been included had he been healthy for the combine. Whew that was a long run-on sentence. There’s another running back this year I think may suffer the same fate as Gurley that I’ll get into later.

Derrick Henry will finally get his opportunity this year to start getting those 1k yard seasons with Murray out of the way. Henry is probably my least favorite RB I’ve scouted over the past few years that fits this list. I don’t know how valuable he’ll be in the passing game but I do think he profiles as a guy that will crush out a few 1k yard rushing seasons. The hate on him from certain fantasy entities has been pretty silly as Henry has been stuck behind Murray, an excellent RB in his own right. I think this is the year the real judgement should begin.

Last year’s selections for this list looked promising. Fournette got his 1st 1k yard season under his belt and that was with being nicked up most of the year and even being out a few games. Foreman looked pretty good to me (some think otherwise, which is fine), however he suffered a really unfortunate injury after scoring a touchdown. We knew we’d likely have to wait at least a year for Foreman to break out with Miller in front of him, might have to tack another year onto that now.

This year we get to introduce 3 new players to this list in Saquon, Penny and Guice. I think all three are very fine players. They each have their own strengths and weaknesses which I’ll outline below. I nearly fell off my chair when Penny was drafted in the 1st round as he was a player I was planning on targeting mid-late 1st round in all my drafts. Welp, so much for that!


Saquon Barkley

Games Watched
Akron - X
Pittsburgh - X
Georgia State - X
Iowa - X
Indiana - X
Michigan - X
Ohio State - X
Michigan State - X
Rutgers - X

Notes
Gets up to speed quickly, good acceleration and burst. Good top speed. Excellent fluid agility and balance. Great player in space. Vision does seem to break down when running inside. In fairness he was hit in the backfield a lot on inside runs (very similar situation to David Johnson at Northern Iowa). Tries to make something out of nothing one too many times but to his credit it often works. Will have to learn when to give up on a run as David Johnson did his rookie year. Not the type of RB to always fall forward and finish runs. A surprising lack of power given his size and athleticism. He seems to leave his feet a little too much. Good routes, hands and catch technique. Pass Pro is more good than bad but can be hit and miss. Overall just a sensational player, maybe a once in a lifetime blend of size and athleticism. His short-comings as an inside runner can easily be coached up on the next level.

Best Comparison
Ladainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders

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Rashaad Penny

Games Watched
Stanford – X
Air Force – X
Nothern Illinois – X
Boise State – X
Fresno State – X
New Mexico – X
Senior Bowl - X

Notes
Good patience to read blocks and cut-back lanes. Takes the time to set up defenders. Downhill runner who can get skinny through creases. Natural hands catcher. Pass blocking needs a lot of work. Good burst once he sees daylight, great long speed. Has speed to get to the edge and turn the corner. Not explosive agility but it’s good enough to make people miss. Has an uncanny ability to not lose any speed while making cuts. Good at typically falling forward for extra yardage. Can run with good power when he wants. Typically carries ball in right hand but can carry with both. He does need to switch the ball to his outside hand with more regularity. I feel like he became a more confident runner as the season went on. Would like to see him play with slightly lower pad level. I think most of his weaknesses (pass pro, pad level, carrying ball in outside hand) are easily fixable at the next level. Even though both Penny and Guice are capable pass catchers I can see how Seattle may use Penny down-field a bit more while Guice looks like a guy that will catch mostly screens and dump offs.

Good breakdown I found that highlights his strengths and weaknesses rather fairly imo if anyone is interested. He is a Seahawks fan though so keep that in mind. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvGUlpyDHxI

Best Comparison
Low - Ryan Mathews
High - Ezekiel Elliot


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Derrius Guice

Games Watched
Brigham Young - X
Chattanooga - X
Mississippi State - X
Syracuse - X
Florida - X
Auburn - X
Mississippi - X
Alabama - X
Arkansas - X
Tennessee - X
Texas A&M - X
Notre Dame - X

Notes
Not a very patient runner. If he is immature, it shows up in his running style. Has a fast reckless playstyle that’s pleasing to the eye but maybe not the most efficient. Susceptible to big hits when he’s constantly pin balling off defenders. Can get low to gain leverage. Gives effort as a pass blocker although needs work, can square up and block defenders IF he gets in front of them. Good lower body strength. Can plant and change direction but loses some speed at times whereas Penny does not. Did not have much room to run. Capable pass-catcher, catches with hands. Great initial burst, good long speed. Good balance to stay on his feet through contact.

Best Comparison
Marshawn Lynch


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Tier 2 – Fake Bellcows

2018 - Nick Chubb
2017 - Joe Mixon
2012 - Lamar Miller
2008 - Jonathan Stewart


The players on this list are often good football players but just never really seem to live up to expectations. Seems to be a near certainty they will rush for 1-2 thousand yard seasons but none have 3 or more.

Last year’s addition was Joe Mixon who underwhelmed with a 3.5 YPC. Some will say it was the player, some will say it was the situation. It’s likely a bit of both.

This year we have Nick Chubb added to the list. I can see why many are enamored with him, overall he may be one of the best total RB packages we’ve seen in a long time. He does have his issues though that I believe keep him out of the elite prospect tier which I’ll outline below. I wish we would have gotten a chance to see him if that injury never happened.



Nick Chubb

Games Watched
Appalachian State – X
Notre Dame – X
Samford – X
Mississippi State – X
Tennessee – X
Vanderbuilt – X
Missouri – X
Florida – X
South Carolina – X
Auburn – X
Kentucky – X
Georgia Tech – X
Auburn – X
Oklahoma – X
Alabama – X

Notes
Big fluid athlete but lacks that special initial burst (subpar 10 and 20-yard splits at combine help confirm this notion for me). Mid-range speed is very good and can take advantages of creases. Loose hips and good patience, although almost a little too patient at times bordering on hesitation. Would like to see him hit the hole with more speed/force sometimes. Sometimes a hair too slow to recognize cutback lanes or doesn’t fully trust himself to make it. Decent jump cut to change direction and evade defenders. Tried too many times to bounce it outside instead of taking the few yards that were there. Wish he would make guys miss more when at speed in the open field. Can make great plays if given room. Overall one of the best athletes as the position the last few years, just wish his initial burst and decisiveness was a little better. Would like to see just a bit more functional agility and refined open field moves. Average pass blocking. Not used in the passing game as a receiver much. Seemed to gain confidence as the season progressed. Can navigate through traffic well. Good power once he gets going. All in all I like him as a player, I just don’t know if his initial burst is good enough or if his play in space is good enough for him to be a long-term stud RB. I think his passing game upside is limited as long as Duke Johnson is there. It’s up to the individual to decide whether or not he’ll continue to progress from his injury or if this is his final form.

Best Comparison
High - Todd Gurley
Low - Carlos Hyde


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Tier 3 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws

Year__Pick____Name
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele

____Undrafted
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis

I separated the list into drafted and undrafted players because as you can see the drafted players have a much better hit rate and also a much higher ceiling overall. Drafted players on this list are likely to get at least 1k rushing season under the belt but none have more than 2. I would recommend riding a player like this for a 1k yard season then selling high (hello there Kareem Hunt owners). If you want to roll the dice on two such seasons, be my guest.

The undrafted players generally don’t amount to much, but guys like Rawls and Crowell have carried pretty significant value at times even though they never hit the 1,000 yard mark. They make for good cheap investments in your rookie drafts and if they don’t work out no sweat. BGE actually did pretty well for himself with 2 1k yard seasons.

The new addition to the list this year is Royce Freeman. He profiles very similarly to Kareem Hunt in that he projects as a solid yet unspectacular 3-down RB. That said, it would not be a good bet to suggest he’ll have the same impact at the NFL level as Hunt in year 1, or even at all.



Royce Freeman

Games Watched
Arizona State – X
Washington State – X
Stanford – X
Washington – X
Arizona – X

Notes
Decent burst, speed and agility. Patient, hard-nosed runner, albeit not exactly dynamic in any way. Runs with a little less power than you would think at times given his size and athleticism. Good pass blocker and reliable receiver. Sometimes looks uncomfortable in space. Not really spectacular at any one thing but is a really solid all around RB. Relatively nimble for his size and possesses a 3-down skillset. I can see him beating out Booker for the starting role as soon as this year. There isn’t a RB in this category that hasn’t hit with his type of draft pedigree, so he’s a pretty safe investment if you’re not sure what to do in the late-1st of your rookie drafts.

Best Comparison
Bizarro Devontae Booker


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Tier 4 – Flash In The Pan

2014 - Carlos Hyde
2013 - Eddie Lacy
2012 - Trent Richardson
2012 - Doug Martin
2006 - DeAngelo Williams

These are running backs that start off red hot but then cool quickly. Great potential for at least 1 1k yard season but maximum of 2. No additions this year.


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Tier 5 – Pass Catchers

Year__Pick____Name
2015 - 3.13 - Duke Johnson
2014 - 2.22 - Bishop Sankey
2013 - 2.05 - Giovani Bernard
2011 - 2.24 - Shane Vereen
2008 - UDFA - Danny Woodhead
2005 - 4.29 - Darren Sproles

Test Cases
Year__Pick____Name
2018 - 4.34 - Chase Edmonds
2017 - 5.39 - Aaron Jones


This tier is composed of players that likely won’t be 3-down RB’s (none have had a 1,000 yard rushing season) but may be valuable pass catchers (most have had multiple years of 40 or even 50+ receptions) and carry good value in PPR leagues. They have good longevity, as you can see the list is composed of players stretching from over a decade ago that are still active in the league. Both Aaron Jones and Chase Edmonds don’t quite fit the criteria but it was a grey area and close enough so I added them as test cases. At the very least it identified Aaron Jones as a solid player and made him a valuable target in the 3rd or 4th rounds of rookie drafts last year. Sankey is the only real bust from this list.


Chase Edmonds

Games Watched
2016
Navy – X
Lafayette – X
Yale – X

2017
Army – X

Notes
Sturdy, shifty player. Can make people miss with his agility. Good field awareness. Good balance and toughness, doesn’t go down without a fight. Appears capable in the passing game, decent pass blocker. Similar to Sony Michel overall, and it makes the Sony pick in round 1 seem like quite a reach. He doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy that could take over a backfield (in contrast I felt like Aaron Jones could be a guy to take over a backfield), but he does appear to be a high-end backup/passing down back that can work in between the tackles if called upon.

Best Comparison
Slower Danny Woodhead


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Tier 6 – The Alfred Morris Tier

Year__Pick____Name
2017 - UDFA - Corey Clement
2012 - 6.03 - Alfred Morris


I forgot to add this last year in the OP. Alfred Morris really intrigued me since he was a really unlikely guy to get 3 1k rushing yard seasons, and so these are the RB’s that are like him! This is what clued me into Corey Clement as a really good value pick in the 4th round or later last year. The fact that Morris was drafted and Clement was not makes me think there may be a significant difference between the two, so I wouldn’t go assuming Clement will rush for 3 1k yard season let alone even one. But we’ll see. No new additions this year.


____________________________________________________________



Alright, now on to the part where everyone starts to hate me. Let’s break down some of the players that didn’t make any of the lists.


Ronald Jones

Games Watched
Western Michigan – X
Stanford – X
Texas – X
Notre Dame – X
Colorado – X
UCLA – X
Ohio State – X

Notes
Good burst and acceleration. Does a good job running through contact, but doesn’t really have push-the-pile power.

The “goes down on first contact” narrative seems unfounded. There were several games where his O-line was overwhelmed. There were many times he ran straight into a waiting tackler, I assume he just didn’t see them, and got stoned. A few of the times he slipped and fell. It’s not that he can’t run through contact, there were other circumstances at play.

Good pass blocker. At times didn’t display patience or vision to make a better play. One cut and go north/south runner. Not used much in the passing game but appears to have decent hands. Good agility, he can stop and accelerate in another direction quickly.

Overall I think the criticisms against Rojo stand on very shaky ground. Ronald Jones is a really intriguing player to me because I think his tape is pretty impressive and he profiles as a guy you can keep on the field all 3-downs. I think Rojo could certainly be a LeSean McCoy type of outlier in the sense that both were not at 100% for their athletic testing. Jones hurt himself at the combine (well, tweaked something at the combine he supposedly injured in training for the combine), and reportedly was not 100% healthy at his pro-day either. I would lump Jones in with Gurley in the sense that even though they don’t technically qualify for the Tier 1 list, they may have if we were able to test their athleticism under normal circumstances. If you want to draft Rojo ahead of Chubb or Freeman I won’t fight you.

Best Comparison
High - Jamaal Charles
Low - Tevin Coleman

___________________________


Sony Michel

Games Watched
Appalachian State – X
Notre Dame – X
Tennessee – X
Vanderbuilt – X
Florida – X
Auburn – X
Oklahoma – X
Alabama – X

Notes
Shifty player but a 1-speed player that lacks elite burst and long-speed. Was generally given a lot of room to run. Not really used much in the passing game but appeared to be a good pass blocker. Good acceleration to his top speed and does make some impressive looking stop/start moves or cuts. He can shed some tackles and run with some power although that’s not quite his game. Good balance through contact. Saw him hit the rev limiter and run out of gas once he reached top speed which was hilarious to watch. Almost Ameer Abdullah –like in that regard. Doesn’t strike me as a 15-20 carry per game guy. Maybe 15-20 touches is within reach though and more than enough for fantasy purposes with his receiving ability and playmaking ability in space. People want to comp him to Alvin Kamara… we’ll see about that. I’d be very wary of assuming the best possible outcome for these outlier-type rb’s. Not every Michel is going to become Kamara just like every Royce Freeman won’t become Kareem Hunt. I think Michel was a reach in the 1st round considering his game is very similar to a guy like Chase Edmonds (late-4th round pick). He should be a perfect fit for the Patriots though. They are good at getting their RB’s out in space (Michel thrives there) and they are content with not having a bellcow RB carry the load.

Best Comparison
???


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Kerryon Johnson

Games Watched
Missouri – X
Mississippi State – X
Alabama – X
Central Florida – X

Notes
Slow-footed, un-creative. Ran a lot of wildcat in which he had an extra blocker in front of him. At times falls forward to the ground before he needs to, before contact. Actually gets slower the longer he runs, as if the laws of physics work the opposite way for him. Appears to have decent hands. Runs with little power. Ran hard versus Alabama so now I understand why he was apparently rated so highly. Actually looked like a competent RB in that game. Doesn’t seem to trust himself to have the speed to get around the edge. Opts to cut back inside several times when he should have stayed outside. Overall I don’t believe he has the talent or athleticism to be a very good RB in the NFL. Combine that with the Lions already having goal-line and 3rd down backs on their roster I think Kerryon is an awfully risky rookie draft pick. Even if he’s decent he could be stuck in the no-fantasy points role where he doesn’t get 3rd down and doesn’t get goal-line. I think the Lions made a severe mistake not only passing on better RB talent (Guice for example!!!) but actually trading up for what I think is possibly the worst of the 8 RB’s to be drafted in the top 3 rounds.

Best Comparison
Turd Sandwich :P


____________________________________________________________



Some house cleaning...

Outliers
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore

Alfred Morris? (I did make him his own category but maybe he fits here as well. Who knows, I’m tired of writing)

Players with 3+ 1,000 yard rushing seasons that did not qualify for the Tier 1 Stud list. As previously stated, certain players are bound to slip through the cracks. I will point out that all three players didn't work out at the combine (I don't think that is merely a coincidence), so pro-day times had to be used which are inherently more unreliable. Admittedly, Foster and Gore likely still would have been outliers no matter when or where they tested. However, I firmly believe that if LeSean McCoy was healthy and participated at the combine that he would have qualified for the Tier 1 list.


____________________________________________________________


Apologies to CMC. I was ragging on his terrible bench press in the last report. I heard a Guice to Portis comparison (both Washington RB’s, not sure that they are terribly similar, but anyway) and decided to look up Portis. Well what do you know, he weighed about the same as CMC and only put up 11 bench reps (CMC did 10). So while CMC still did awful in that area, it’s not THAT far removed from a successful player. This isn’t to say I’m changing my stance on CMC, it’s merely to put his bench press number into a better (and more favorable to CMC) historical context.


____________________________________________________________



Here are the rookie rankings this year according to the model;

1) Saquon Barkley
2) Rashaad Penny
3) Derrius Guice
4) Nick Chubb
5) Royce Freeman

I feel like that is a pretty safe group of guys, and if you’re going strictly on the odds then I would probably select in that order. A rough estimation of the “real” value of those players would be the top 3 are early-mid 1st and the next two mid-late 1st. I have Penny and Guice virtually tied with each other. Weighing the positives and negatives between the two led me to a dark place. I think you just have to go with your gut. Both players are capable of great fantasy seasons. I think the safer choice is Penny in that the entire organization is behind him as a 3-down back. He should get the volume and volume leads to fantasy points regardless of O-line. Melvin Gordon is a great example of a volume fueled fantasy stud driven by draft capital invested. I think that is worst-case for Penny as I believe Penny is a better player than Gordon. Guice is no slouch either though. He’s played against better competition, is younger, and is more dynamic than Penny. I don’t think you can lose either way.

I personally would have a hard time drafting Chubb or Freeman over Rojo. I feel like I saw enough from Rojo on film that I might take the chance on him over the other two whom I feel are limited-ceiling players. As previously stated, I think the criticisms of Jones are way overblown and possibly even completely unfounded (anyone remember the absurd DJ can’t run inside narrative?). But as I said earlier, I certainly see the appeal with Chubb. If you were to build a RB in a lab, he’s the one you would come up with from this class (aside from Barkley of course).

Sony Michel seems like a decent player but I just don’t know how likely it is that he becomes an every-down starter for an NFL team, or if he did become one how long it would last. He just doesn’t strike me as that kind of guy. Similarly to Rojo, if you want to take Sony over Chubb or Freeman I’m not going to fault you for it. I think where it becomes a big reach is taking a guy like Sony over any of the top 3 (Saquon, Penny, Guice).

Also don’t forget about Chase Edmonds. He seems like a quality player that could stick on an NFL roster for quite a while. While I don’t know if he’d ever threaten to take over a backfield the same way Aaron Jones did, I do think he could be a viable fantasy asset if he ever got out from under David Johnsons shadow. At the very least you have yourself a capable handcuff who is a plus in the passing game.

Ok well I think that about wraps it up. All in all a very good rookie class this year. I don’t really “hate” any of the top RB’s aside from Kerryon Johnson. Remember, classes like these do not happen every year, just look at the lists I’ve provided. By most accounts next year’s RB class is pretty thin, so prepare yourselves for the dark times ahead. Winter is coming.

Again, if you feel like you got a lot out of this report and want to donate, feel free to do so. Link below.

ImageCLICK HERE to DONATE
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sat May 12, 2018 2:49 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri May 11, 2018 8:15 pm

Nice write up. I personally have Chubb ahead of Guice, and think he falls somewhere in between the high an low of Hyde and Gurley. I feel he is a superior talent to Hyde, and actually A/B watched his tape vs Hyde's college tape quite a bit.

I agree with almost every single thing you wrote about Guice other than initial burst, which I find lacking a bit. Very detailed report. Thanks for the effort.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Fri May 11, 2018 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby ascherb » Fri May 11, 2018 8:15 pm

You’re a god.
14-team Dynasty - .5PPR (QB/2RB/3WR/Flex/TE/K/D)

QB - Luck/Stafford/Bradford
RB - Gurley/DJohnson/Hyde/Ingram/DMartin/Smallwood
WR - OBJ/Julio/Hopkins/KAllen/ARob/Cooks/DGB/Coates/Gordon
TE - Gronk/Ebron

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Bot101 » Fri May 11, 2018 8:17 pm

Excellent as always! Your donation links are broken though.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Matthew Stafford, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield

WR: Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Josh Gordon, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Corey Coleman, Taywan Taylor, Cameron Meredith, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Equanimeous St. Brown

RB: Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Tarik Cohen, Kalen Ballage, Chase Edmonds

TE: Delanie Walker, Hunter Henry, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith

D: Eagles, Chargers

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri May 11, 2018 8:21 pm

Awesome, thanks so much DD!
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Kenny G, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Herndon
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Simon, Goodson
DB: CHURCH/TAVON/POYER, Farley, John J, Geathers, Maye, McLeod, Quandre, D Everett

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Fri May 11, 2018 8:23 pm

Well done yet again

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1)| DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| D. Carr, R. Tannehill, C. Keenum, B. Osweiler, E.J. Manuel, M. Rudolph (taxi), M. White (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Mixon, K. Drake, D. Foreman, J. Williams
|WR| M. Goodwin, M. Lee, M. Bryant, D.J. Moore, C. Godwin. C. Beasley
|TE| T. Kelce, M. Gesicki, R. Seals-Jones, R. Gathers, I. Thomas (taxi)
|K| R. Gould, H. Butker
|DT| G. McCoy, S. Richardson, D. Poe, T. Bryan (taxi)
|DE| E. Ansah, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, J. Sweat, A. Key (taxi)
|LB| J. Clowney, K. Alonso, A. Barr, L. Vander Esch, N. Bowman, K. Beckwith, W. Mercilus, B. Gedeon, N. Perry, M. Jefferson
|CB| T. White, M. Peters, D. Trufant, J. Norman, B. Jones, J. Jackson
|S| M. Burnett, E. Thomas, H. Clinton-Dix, M. Fitzpatrick, S. Cravens, E. Murray
|PICKS| 2019 #1 (x2), #4, #5, #6

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri May 11, 2018 8:27 pm

DD, do you like Jordan Wilkins, Ballage, Walton, or John Kelly very much?
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Kenny G, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Herndon
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Simon, Goodson
DB: CHURCH/TAVON/POYER, Farley, John J, Geathers, Maye, McLeod, Quandre, D Everett

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 11, 2018 8:33 pm

Bot101 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:17 pm
Your donation links are broken though.
All show and no go :vsad:

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:27 pm
DD, do you like Jordan Wilkins, Ballage, Walton, or John Kelly very much?
Did not get around to watching them. That's one of those things where if it was paid I could add the "lesser" rb's like that in. I believe in watching as many games on each player as possible, so it takes quite a while for each player.

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby thebeast » Fri May 11, 2018 8:59 pm

While I don’t always agree with you DD, this is a great piece of work. Thank you!
2017 Champion - DLF Hall of Fame League - 16 Team | 1 PPR | 1QB-2WR/2RB/1TE/2FL

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby darkadun » Fri May 11, 2018 9:06 pm

This is great!
QB: Kirk Cousins, Phillip Rivers, Lamar Jackson
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Royce Freeman, Duke Johnson, Jamaal Williams, Ameer Abdullah, Jaylen Samuels, James Connor, Buck Allen, Austin Ekeler
WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Demaryius Thomas, Devin Funchess, Courtland Sutton, Kenny Golladay, Donte Moncrief, J’Mon Moore
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Evan Ingram, Cameron Brate

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Bot101 » Fri May 11, 2018 9:14 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:33 pm
Bot101 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:17 pm
Your donation links are broken though.
All show and no go :vsad:

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:27 pm
DD, do you like Jordan Wilkins, Ballage, Walton, or John Kelly very much?
Did not get around to watching them. That's one of those things where if it was paid I could add the "lesser" rb's like that in. I believe in watching as many games on each player as possible, so it takes quite a while for each player.
They are impressive to look at :lol:
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Matthew Stafford, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield

WR: Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Josh Gordon, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Corey Coleman, Taywan Taylor, Cameron Meredith, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Equanimeous St. Brown

RB: Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Tarik Cohen, Kalen Ballage, Chase Edmonds

TE: Delanie Walker, Hunter Henry, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith

D: Eagles, Chargers

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby honcho55 » Fri May 11, 2018 9:34 pm

Damnit. Traded out of the 1st (had 7,8,12,13 going into offseason) and now all this fresh hype and I’m looking at moving back up!

So I take it the guys like Kelly, ballage, etc, didn’t make the list because it’s purely numbers based? So even had you watched tape they would only make one of the “outlier” tiers?
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -4 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. Roster 15, 2 IR, 3 taxi. keep 10 every year (max 2QB, 3RB, 4WR, 2TE)

QB: Wilson, Goff
RB: E. Elliot, D. Henry
WR. O. Beckham, L. Fitzgerald, M. Jones, W. Fuller
TE. H. Henry, G, Kittle

2018 picks: 2.01,2.10,3.08, 4.03, 4.04
2019 picks: 1st, three 2nds, two 3rds, two 4ths
2020 picks: three 1sts, two 3rds, 4th 5th

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Krypto_King » Fri May 11, 2018 10:07 pm

Nice writeup. I have some thoughts/Q's

1) I agree with most of the Guice stuff but most is negative. Do you think you're getting caught up in group think having him in the top tier or were the positives just too obvious to mention? (size/speed/effort) - just as a blind taste test "Good lower body strength. Capable pass-catcher. good long speed. Good balance to stay on his feet through contact." - couldn't this be Royce Freeman?
2) Your tier 5 is like a graveyard of RBs that just needed 1 team to take a chance and give them workhorse touches 1 time yet never happened
3) You need to get some popcorn and re-watch Jamaal Charles college tape. He was truly on another level

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri May 11, 2018 10:17 pm

BTW, in regards to not having a comparison player for Michel - I think Lamar Miller, in MIAMI not Houston (where he tried to bulk up and lost explosion) is almost a perfect comp.
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Kenny G, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Herndon
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Simon, Goodson
DB: CHURCH/TAVON/POYER, Farley, John J, Geathers, Maye, McLeod, Quandre, D Everett

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Re: 2018 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 11, 2018 10:31 pm

honcho55 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 9:34 pm

So I take it the guys like Kelly, ballage, etc, didn’t make the list because it’s purely numbers based? So even had you watched tape they would only make one of the “outlier” tiers?
Sorry I guess I didn’t make that clear. All the lists are numbers based except the list at the bottom with Foster, Gore and McCoy. Those are the rbs that had 3+ 1,000 yard rushing seasons that did not qualify for any list, most importantly the Tier 1 list. I’ll see if I can edit the post tomorrow to clarify that. The film study is more to give context to the players, it does not actually affect the lists in any significant way. Hopefully that makes sense.

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:17 pm
BTW, in regards to not having a comparison player for Michel - I think Lamar Miller, in MIAMI not Houston (where he tried to bulk up and lost explosion) is almost a perfect comp.
Miller was way more athletic but from a visual standpoint of seeing them run on the field I kind of agree with that.


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