Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

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dynastyninja
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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby dynastyninja » Sat May 05, 2018 5:53 pm

I think Guice is clearly more talented than Penny. Situation could propel Penny above Guice, but I doubt that'll end up being the case.

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Bot101
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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Bot101 » Sat May 05, 2018 6:45 pm

I think Guice is more talented too. I just dont like the fact that Gruden is already writing off Guice as being a workhorse. Seattle on the other hand seem eager to use Penny in the passing game.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger

WR: Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, James Washington, Antonio Callaway, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Equanimeous St. Brown, Rashard Higgins, Deon Cain (IR)

RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Chase Edmonds, Elijah McGuire, Josh Adams,

TE: Trey Burton, Gerald Everett, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin, Demetrius Harris

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dynastyninja
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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby dynastyninja » Sat May 05, 2018 7:13 pm

Bot101 wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 6:45 pm
I think Guice is more talented too. I just dont like the fact that Gruden is already writing off Guice as being a workhorse. Seattle on the other hand seem eager to use Penny in the passing game.
Year 1 I could definitely see it happening where Guice handles 1st/2nd and Thompson handles 3rd. I have faith that long-term Guice will be able to take over all three downs, but I also am not blind to the fact that Thompson is a really good receiving back and Guice won't be able to easily take that from him (depending on health).

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Cowboysfan33
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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Sat May 05, 2018 7:22 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 11:55 am
captain howdy wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 11:41 am
Tsunami wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 11:37 am
Took him at 1.3. I like Michel's talent but he's going to be stuck in a quagmire for 5 years. I like Chubb's metrics but before the combine he wasn't considered a top back and I don't see him beating out Hyde as easily as some do. Penny seems like a solid pick for the short-term.
You don't think Chubb was considered a top back before the combine.

That's cool. I didn't know that thought was out there.

It's adding to alot of the fun to the draft season this, lots of differences in drafts from 3-12..
Penny and Chubb are basically a coin toss for me. They are both heads and shoulders above any other of the tails backs in this class. :roll:
Just remember “don’t take any wooden NICKELS” when deciding between Penny and Chubb.

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun May 06, 2018 3:38 am

Bot101 wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 6:45 pm
I think Guice is more talented too. I just dont like the fact that Gruden is already writing off Guice as being a workhorse. Seattle on the other hand seem eager to use Penny in the passing game.
While he'll probly lose catches to Thompson, will he-
1) dominate carries, pushing Perine and Kelley to handcuff/inactive/cut status
2) be more effective with his touches, given the respective states of the olines and defenses.

If he can't do 1, then it's Penny, to me. If Guice does 1 and gets 2, it's easily Guice,to me.
14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, R/W/T
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
R Wilson, Eli, Lauletta, Bridgewater
Zeke, Freeman, Ajayi, Yeldon, Breida, J Adams, E McGuire, C Warren, Montgomery,
Hopkins, A Cooper, Marvin Jones, Z Jones, R Anderson, Conley, A Wilson, D Cain
Kittle, Jimmy G, Gesicki, Dissly

IDP core- DT Kenny Clark; DE Ngakoue; LBs David, Hitchens, Bynes, D Buchanan
2019- 1.6, 1.7, 1.12, 1.15, 3.12, 4.12
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Jason3123
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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Jason3123 » Wed May 09, 2018 8:10 am

If you're fading Guice because you just don't like his haircut or hate video games that's acceptable. But fading Guice because of a comment by Jay Gruden in May, or because a 180 pound fragile scat back, is beyond insane. Don't be insane.

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Tsunami » Wed May 09, 2018 9:49 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:10 am
If you're fading Guice because you just don't like his haircut or hate video games that's acceptable. But fading Guice because of a comment by Jay Gruden in May, or because a 180 pound fragile scat back, is beyond insane. Don't be insane.
It's not insane to think that Thompson is one of the most effective backs in the league, at least in passing situations. And thus barring injury Guice is unlikely to become a 3 down back. And so his upside is limited for the foreseeable future, similar to Sony Michel. Guice is unlikely to even be the best RB on his own team in PPR leagues.

In comparison, it's not unreasonable to think that Penny or Chubb might get significantly more opportunities, though they also might not start. Whether you decide to choose talent over situation is another discussion, but I've noticed you like to turn everything into a false dichotomy where anyone who disagrees with you is insane, and this is certainly not true in this case.

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Bot101 » Wed May 09, 2018 10:04 am

Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger

WR: Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, James Washington, Antonio Callaway, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Equanimeous St. Brown, Rashard Higgins, Deon Cain (IR)

RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Chase Edmonds, Elijah McGuire, Josh Adams,

TE: Trey Burton, Gerald Everett, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin, Demetrius Harris

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Valhalla » Wed May 09, 2018 10:26 am

Bot101 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:04 am
Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.
So you're thinking the Penny stock is on the rise?

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Bot101 » Wed May 09, 2018 10:36 am

Valhalla wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:26 am
Bot101 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:04 am
Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.
So you're thinking the Penny stock is on the rise?
Valhalla - Master of Penny puns. Indeed that is my thought.

I did some digging on the Seahawks Oline last night. And also the moves they made in FA and the draft. Penny on the rise.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger

WR: Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, James Washington, Antonio Callaway, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Equanimeous St. Brown, Rashard Higgins, Deon Cain (IR)

RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Chase Edmonds, Elijah McGuire, Josh Adams,

TE: Trey Burton, Gerald Everett, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin, Demetrius Harris

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby TB3falcons » Wed May 09, 2018 10:49 am

Bot101 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:36 am
Valhalla wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:26 am
Bot101 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:04 am
Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.
So you're thinking the Penny stock is on the rise?
Valhalla - Master of Penny puns. Indeed that is my thought.

I did some digging on the Seahawks Oline last night. And also the moves they made in FA and the draft. Penny on the rise.
I agree here, drew some flak for trading Guice (my pick at 1.02) & 2.14 for 1.03 and 2.01. Took Penny with the 1.03 and was debating about taking him at 1.02 anyways.
16 Team PPR/RetY/Balanced IDP League (QB,RB,2WR,TE,4FLX,PK,PN,DT,2DE,3LB,2CB,2S,1DFLX)
QB- Ryan, Mahomes
RB- Gordon, Ingram, Gore, Martin, Smallwood, Rod Smith, Howell
WR- Hopkins, KAllen, Lockett, Cobb, MJones, Golladay, Conley, DMoore, Humphreys, Gordon :boohoo:
TE- Burton, Njoku, Clay, Thomas
PK- Butker
PN- Cooke
DT- Ogunjobi, Nkemdiche, Jackson
DE- JPP, DLaw, Jones, Quinn, CHarris, Turay
LB- Alexander, Mosley, D. Davis, Schobert, Walker, Hightower, Ragland, Cabinda
CB- Bouye, DJackson, Callahan
S- JJ3, Swearinger, Bates, Williams
Picks: 1,7

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Generic Username » Wed May 09, 2018 11:03 am

Valhalla wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:26 am
Bot101 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:04 am
Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.
So you're thinking the Penny stock is on the rise?
Blue chip by season's end?

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Jason » Wed May 09, 2018 11:11 am

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby maxhyde » Wed May 09, 2018 11:32 am

Jason wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 11:11 am
In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.
I agree with this.
Now if you think it is 50 carries and 15-50 more passes that might be something else entirely. Or if you (like the NFL) perceives the immaturity issues Guice has demonstrated are more concerning than the amount more talent he has. I mean 32 teams had to make that decision as should every fantasy owner and there is no small number that decided those issues weren't something they wanted in their locker room despite the "more talent"
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees
RB: David Johnson, Bernard, MLynch, Penny, Morris, TJLogan, SWilson, McNichols, Joe Williams
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Willson, Swaim, Jarwin, Maxx Williams
18 picks: 1.03- Penny, 2.14 - Josh Allen (traded), 3.03 Deion Cain

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Re: Wow, Penny to the Seahawks

Postby Jason3123 » Wed May 09, 2018 11:50 am

Tsunami wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 9:49 am
Jason3123 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:10 am
If you're fading Guice because you just don't like his haircut or hate video games that's acceptable. But fading Guice because of a comment by Jay Gruden in May, or because a 180 pound fragile scat back, is beyond insane. Don't be insane.
It's not insane to think that Thompson is one of the most effective backs in the league, at least in passing situations. And thus barring injury Guice is unlikely to become a 3 down back. And so his upside is limited for the foreseeable future, similar to Sony Michel. Guice is unlikely to even be the best RB on his own team in PPR leagues.

In comparison, it's not unreasonable to think that Penny or Chubb might get significantly more opportunities, though they also might not start. Whether you decide to choose talent over situation is another discussion, but I've noticed you like to turn everything into a false dichotomy where anyone who disagrees with you is insane, and this is certainly not true in this case.
Chris Thompson is a nice little player who has been injured since college. His contract expires after 2019. Last season he averaged 13.1 YPR (outlier). Before that he averaged 6.9 and 7.1 the 2 years prior. Guice is a superior talent and even if he doesn't have the 3rd down role, Perine still managed 22 catches last season. Guice can easily get 30+ catches with Chris Thompson playing. And again, betting on Thompson to play 32 games the next 2 years is a suckers bet. And one more thing, Guice is a lock for 200+ carries barring injury. Thompson gets 60-70 carries max. Guice gets into the 220-250 range plus 25-30 catches and you're talking about an every week starter in fantasy football, for a rookie, which is awesome. He will kick Thompson to the curb eventually because Thompson is a 27 year old tiny scat back with a rough injury history. And Guice is a primo highly drafted RB. Stop fading Guice in DYNASTY for Chris Thompson. If you want to bump him down for redraft for 2018, fine, you should do that with all rookies though. Guice is a rock solid #2/#3 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.


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