Julio Jones Thread: Traded to Tennessee

[pvillebiker]

Has any top asset ever lost as much value in as short amount of time as Julio has? I see him going for two mid 1sts...

Wow, didn't realize Julio is going cheaply now.

Coincidentally, a few days ago I offered Lamar Miller, K Cole, M Hollins, 2019 1st (mid-to-late) and 2018 2.10 for Julio thinking I was on the light side. In a superflex league (picks more valuable) to a rebuilding team.

[jordanzs]

Has any top asset ever lost as much value in as short amount of time as Julio has? I see him going for two mid 1sts...

Wow, didn't realize Julio is going cheaply now.

Coincidentally, a few days ago I offered Lamar Miller, K Cole, M Hollins, 2019 1st (mid-to-late) and 2018 2.10 for Julio thinking I was on the light side. In a superflex league (picks more valuable) to a rebuilding team.

That's on the light side

[Gtdano_14]

Has any top asset ever lost as much value in as short amount of time as Julio has? I see him going for two mid 1sts...

Wow, didn't realize Julio is going cheaply now.

Coincidentally, a few days ago I offered Lamar Miller, K Cole, M Hollins, 2019 1st (mid-to-late) and 2018 2.10 for Julio thinking I was on the light side. In a superflex league (picks more valuable) to a rebuilding team.

That's on the light side

yeah great offer. here have Julio while i get your scraps and then have to go cut three more players to make room for said scraps... I'd value your entire offer worth a mid-late 1st in my 16 team league.

[turcorox911]

Interesting. The Falcons will obviously need him.

[Pew Dogs]

Someone on the NFL Network talked about Jones doing this last night (I THINK it was Eisen), saying that Jones was going into some new business ventures and that was why he was cleaning out his social media footprints. They said it had nothing to do with unhappiness about his relationship with the Falcons.

(Still, I traded him for Melvin Gordon about a month ago.)

[turcorox911]

Someone on the NFL Network talked about Jones doing this last night (I THINK it was Eisen), saying that Jones was going into some new business ventures and that was why he was cleaning out his social media footprints. They said it had nothing to do with unhappiness about his relationship with the Falcons.

(Still, I traded him for Melvin Gordon about a month ago.)

If it's PPR, then that's not a bad deal for you to make at all. Gordon gets volume.

[nation31]

I was bored at work, and was reading news that Julio is holding out for a new contract, while having 3 years remaining, and currently the 6th highest paid WR. I also put out inquiries about trying to obtain him, but owners still value him as an elite option, at the age of 29. So I decided to look at some numbers. No I am not trying to knock him, I do think that he possesses elite skills, but found the numbers interesting. Everyone knows about his numbers and game to game variability, but decided to take a closer look at the numbers. I just do not see how his prices are still this high and he is holding out for a new contract.

2016: 83-1409-6; 280 fantasy points (PPR), 14 games; WR#7
2017: 88-1444-3; 261 fantasy points (PPR), 16 games; WR#7

2016-2017 (2 year totals): 171-2853-9

Great statistics, right?


2016: 1 game- 12-300-1
2017: 1 game- 12-253-2

2016-2017 (2 game total): 24-553-3

That is 14% of his catches, 19% of his yards, 33% of his TD and 20% of his total points for TWO seasons. So I took those two 50 point games out of his seasons, averaged his PPG without those outliers and calculated what his actual total fantasy points would be for those seasons without those outbursts, replacing those two games with his average. Julio would have been WR #16 in 2016, and WR#15 in 2017.

2016- 4 games with less than 10 fantasy points; 1 game with exactly 10 fantasy points
2017- 3 games with less than 10 fantasy points; 1 game with 10 fantasy points, 1 game with 11 fantasy points, 1 game with 12 fantasy points

Seems like the same story that was previously told for Doug Martin at one point in time. I am not trying to say Julio isn't good or a great fantasy asset, I am simply just curious why his value is still so high when his numbers really don't tell the story of an elite fantasy WR.

[Phaded]

He holds the NFL receiving record for most yards per game throughtout his career and is the second receiver in history to post four straight 1400+ yard seasons (the first being Marvin Harrison).

Why wouldn't he be considered elite?

[dynastyninja]

His price is already starting to adjust. He's a 2nd rounder in startups now instead of mid- to early-first. He still provides a lot of production and is a special receiver, so I don't think 2nd round startup is crazy for a contender.

[trc]

So I took those two 50 point games out of his seasons, averaged his PPG without those outliers and calculated what his actual total fantasy points would be for those seasons without those outbursts, replacing those two games with his average. Julio would have been WR #16 in 2016, and WR#15 in 2017.

If you want this to be valid, you would need to do the same for every WR out there.
Take out the abnormal games - otherwise it is just cherry picking to support your claim.

[nation31]

So I took those two 50 point games out of his seasons, averaged his PPG without those outliers and calculated what his actual total fantasy points would be for those seasons without those outbursts, replacing those two games with his average. Julio would have been WR #16 in 2016, and WR#15 in 2017.

If you want this to be valid, you would need to do the same for every WR out there.
Take out the abnormal games - otherwise it is just cherry picking to support your claim.

Funny you ask:

Using the same metrics, taking out "outlier" huge game for the other elite WR and finding their true average, lets look at the results:




Antonio Brown: 2016- still would have finished WR1 overall, in 2017-would have finished WR2 overall

Hopkins: 2017- still would have finished WR2 overall; (did not assess 2016)

M. Thomas: 2016 and 2017- would have finished WR9 both years, while with the inclusion of "outlier" games, finished WR8 overall

OBJ: 2017 (did not assess); 2016 would have finished WR #6 overall, while with the inclusion, finished WR#4 overall

Evans: 2017- would have finished WR #22, while with the inclusion finished #20 overall; 2016 would have finished WR#6 overall, while with the inclusion would have finished WR#4 overall

So it appears to me that most of these players only dropped one or two spots, keeping them in the respective WR1 tier (Evans being exception last season); while Julio dropped about 10 spots in finishes. My point remains: how can he still be considered elite?

[Pullo Vision]

He holds the NFL receiving record for most yards per game throughtout his career and is the second receiver in history to post four straight 1400+ yard seasons (the first being Marvin Harrison).

Why wouldn't he be considered elite?

GMFB this morning emphasized his decoy role/value. That's more of a football thing than fantasy thing. I don't think you can question his elite NFL value.

What role his repeated and nagging injuries play into so much of his production getting jammed into one game each year is an open question, to me. It'd also be more interesting to determine per game position rank by removing the outlier production on both the high and low side.

I'm buying Julio when he ends up with the Patriots and they find a way to get him ready to produce each gameday, the way they did for Dion Lewis.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Short answer is that most already don't consider Julio elite anymore. His price is probably around the 1.01-1.02 instead of 1.01 + two 1sts like Hopkins or Beckham. Are you arguing that he should be worth even less? Where would you value him in rookie picks?

[psu007]

My fear with buying Julio is when will the cliff come and how severe will it be? Size/Speed WR's like that worry me as they get older. A guy like Brown, I'm willing to take my chances he can last longer.

[Jason3123]

Great players are outliers. Keep betting on Julio and enjoy being rewarded nicely.