Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

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kamihamster
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Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby kamihamster » Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:49 pm

I've been playing around with some various stats and I think I made a model that's pretty good for RBs. Was wondering if any of you guys out there have done the same.

I broke up the modeling based off just talent, and then talent plus their situation (opportunity). The model, once you take into account their landing spot, has a decent fit of 0.6681.

Here's a screen cap of my model and you can see how it rates the 2018 class. I use some Yard Created data, and don't have all the data I would like for all the class, so if anyone would like to share it with me, I'd appreciate it. Otherwise, from RoJo down, I am just using average yards created data for those guys.
RB-scoring.JPG
RB-scoring.JPG (93.92 KiB) Viewed 512 times
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Jason3123
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:54 pm

How are you measuring talent?

Ruggenater
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby Ruggenater » Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:37 am

You chose to build a linear regression model? I'd suggest looking into something non-parametric, like k-means clustering or random forests (classification or regression). I haven't built anything myself for fantasy football purposes, but it's something I've thought about in a "one day, when I have some time" sort of way.

R squared is also a... meh measure of model accuracy. RMSE is generally better, or just a confusion matrix if you're going down the classification model route.
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker

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skip
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby skip » Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:50 am

Jason3123 wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:54 pm How are you measuring talent?
First thing that jumped out at me too... Sounds very subjective and based on some of the numbers, a bit suspect.
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby tresskid84 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:04 am

Image

Lol, I actually love this. Curious what you use to define talent
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

cazzie33
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby cazzie33 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:20 am

:? When did all the Eggheads take over the DLF :shock:

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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby nathanq42 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:43 am

Dynasty DeLorean does a nice price every year, the RB report. I like it
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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kamihamster
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby kamihamster » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:05 am

Ruggenater wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:37 am You chose to build a linear regression model? I'd suggest looking into something non-parametric, like k-means clustering or random forests (classification or regression). I haven't built anything myself for fantasy football purposes, but it's something I've thought about in a "one day, when I have some time" sort of way.

R squared is also a... meh measure of model accuracy. RMSE is generally better, or just a confusion matrix if you're going down the classification model route.
I'm not a stat guy. But I did run lots of different parameters on JMP and did a POV analysis. I then used the variables that had some correlation with success (fantasy points) and weighted it in my model more than the stuff that didn't have a high correlation. Here is some of the JMP stuff I ran.
jmp3.JPG
jmp3.JPG (78.5 KiB) Viewed 369 times
R-squared is just a easy way to see how my model fits, but I have other fits and a density ellipse that say my fit is significant.
jmp1.JPG
jmp1.JPG (176.5 KiB) Viewed 382 times
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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skip
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby skip » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:05 am

It's like trying to understand the teacher in Peanuts. Still not seeing a way to measure talent.
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby kamihamster » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:22 am

skip wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:05 am It's like trying to understand the teacher in Peanuts. Still not seeing a way to measure talent.
Graham Barfield's yards created data is one source of talent measurement. The other is draft stock and scout round. Both of those have talent baked in since teams and scouts take more talented players earlier. But overall I don't measure talent. I dont say this guy has good hands, this guy can sink his hips well, this guy has crisp routes. That's for the teams and scouts to decide. I just use their rankings/pick as data.

I guess I'll explain my method:
First I got a bunch of combine numbers, yards created info, scout ranks, and NFL draft data. I then calculated 2017 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and did a fit Y by X for each variable against the FPPG. I looked for any correlations between the stat and their production (FPPG). I also ran a partition of variation analysis (POV) to exclude stats that are too variable. Stats with no correlation or were too variable I threw out.

The next step was to make a bunch of individual equations for each stat that gave more points for good results and less for bad. I played around with the slope to have enough contrast between good and bad results. After each variable had their own equation I added an exponential to each equation then added all the equations together. I played around with the exponential for each variable for how much weight they contribute to the model. I tried to make the more correlated stat more weighted. Once I got all of the exponential numbers to my liking, I just normalized to the best possible player. I ran everyones numbers and got their score and looked at how well it fit to their actual production (FPPG).

I admit the n is pretty small since I'm using yards created data and Barfield has only been doing it for three years, and I haven't paid for the data so I can only get what's not behind their pay wall. (im a cheap SOB). But I find his data is a pretty good predictor of NFL production, so I have what I have.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby _yeti » Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:59 pm

I don't speak math
Remember where you are - this is Thunderdome.
*5 leagues (est. 2015, '17, '18, '18, '22, 6 total 'ships)

12 Team SF, PPR, TE Prem., DT prem., IDP Start 10, QB, 1SF, 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR, 1-3 TE, 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 1 IDPflex
QB: J. Fields, B. Mayfield, G. Smith, M. Mariota, S. Darnold
RB: T. Etienne, T. Pollard, S. Barkley, J.Jacobs A. Jones, , A. Gibson, D. Harris, Z. Moss, E. Elliott
WR: G. Wilson, T. Higgins, T. McLaurin C. Kirk, D. Hopkins, K. Toney. K. Osborn, M. Hardman
TE: T.J. Hockenson, K. Pitts, H. Henry
DL: M. Parsons, Q. Williams, D. Buckner, R. Gary
LB: F. Oluokun, R. Smith, A. Anzalone. L. David
DB: B. Baker, J. Metellus, R. Grant

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skip
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby skip » Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:25 pm

How are you accounting for non-usage to figure fppg? Like a David Johnson his rookie season?
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby kamihamster » Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:39 pm

skip wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:25 pm How are you accounting for non-usage to figure fppg? Like a David Johnson his rookie season?
Of the population I had, I only had Drake that I needed to adjust. I didn't include his production until they traded Ajayi and he was in the time share with Williams. The games he was in the timeshare/starting, was the n for his games played.

I debated excluding one of Kamara's games because he got concussed so early in the game, but I decided not to. He'd probably hurt the fit a bit because of that.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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sugbear65
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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby sugbear65 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:18 pm

I’ll give you this seems a little more scientific than my method of ranking, where “coolest nickname” carries the most weight.

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Re: Any Prediction Modelers Out there?

Postby cazzie33 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:18 pm

_yeti wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:59 pm I don't speak math
You gotta speak the language if you ever want to become a math surgeon :wall:


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