WR Scarcity

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
theone
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby theone » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:25 am

Certainly some possible scheme related effects but it has a lot to do with the state of QB play. We can discount last season to a certain extent given 3 QBs (Rodgers, Luck, Palmer), who were in the top 9 of passing yards in 2016, missed most of last year and it was a down year for other QBs in general which filters down to the WRs. Just two seasons ago we had some enormous years from WRs. However, we are also at a stage where players who have been fixtures as starting QBs in the league for a long time are at or near the end of their careers instead of in their primes.

honcho55
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby honcho55 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:35 am

xlur8ed wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:24 am It's an interesting thought, and one that really required me to dig to find out how different (if at all) today's game is versus say...2000 & 2010 to get a feel. I'm using 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 Touchdowns to paint a clear picture of a solid WR1 (all TE/RB were removed from these stats).

2000:
Top target monster was Rod Smith with 173 for 100/1602/8 line
There were 24 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 17 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 5 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (All of which had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of them had 80 receptions, and all had 120+ targets)

2010:
Top target monster was HOT ROD Roddy White with 179 for 115/1389/10 line
There were 19 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 16 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (8 of 10 had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of 10 had 80 receptions, and 8 of 10 had 120+ targets.

2017:
Top target monster was DeAndre Hopkins with 174 for 96/1378/13 line
There were 14 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 2 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (Only 1 had a 1000 yard season, 1 of them had 80 receptions (same guy), and only 1 of them had 120+ targets (again, same guy, Hopkins).



So the comparison by year:
120 Targets: 2017 = 14 players, 2010 = 19 players, 2000 = 24 players
80 Receptions: 2017 = 10 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 13 players
1000 Yards Receiving: 2017 = 13 players, 2010 = 16 players, 2000 = 17 players
10 Touchdowns: 2017 = 2 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 5 players
Great post!

if I get some time, or if anyone else wants to take it on, I'd like to see a similar work up of RB and TE numbers. Used to be just Gonzo, or just Gates at TE. And just Faulk and Chuck Garner at RB catching balls. I could be wrong I'm not looking at numbers. Bottom line, my assumption is the ball is getting spread out more and more, and not just among WRs.
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st

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lukkynumber13
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:49 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:50 am Money is a huge factor as well ... when a guy like Watkins makes $16 mil & OBJ is looking for $20 mil ... if I were a GM, I'd ask can I replace that production with two $8-10 million guys.
You must be the GM of the Jaguars and Dolphins!
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
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TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
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TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

mullmania
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby mullmania » Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:30 pm

Super great post with the stats and targets! Epic

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby mullmania » Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:33 pm

This is a great place to do some stat checking by years

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstat ... eID=107644

What was interesting to me is that in 2017 there were about 39 WRs with over 150 PPR points. Guys like P Rich, Watkins make up the bottom of the tier as likely WR 3 flex types that people rostered and maybe started sometimes.

Going back to 2001 I was expecting that maybe there weren't as many 'well performing' WR 3 flex types filling out the bottom of the tier, I was expecting it to be more top heavy, but it looked about the same

38 WRS with over 150 PPR points.

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ArrylT
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:38 pm

Footballguys has historical stats by Std & PPR scoring going as far back as 1996, for every position (including IDP). I think you need to be an Insider though to have access (being insider is free, they also have a premium subscription).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myf ... &profile=p

That would link to WRs in 2007 PPR - Randy Moss #1 at 385 Jerry Porter at #44 was the last WR with 150+ points.
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