WR Scarcity

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Valhalla
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WR Scarcity

Postby Valhalla » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:37 am

No typo in that title. I know there are a ton of WRs and they just keep flooding the league, giving many NFL teams a depth of talented WRs. Arguably the 3rd best wr on many NFL teams is making not only our roster but our starting lineups at times. Guys like Kupp, Amendola, Matthews/Mitchell, Pryor, Marshall, Doctson, John and Jaron Brown, Coleman, Martavis Bryant, Dez?, Golladay (if he hasn’t beat out Tate), Cole/Westbrook, Taywan Taylor, Hardy, Ginn, Godwin, Conley, and Mike Williams😄 (had to throw him in) are all typically rostered, and that’s with two arguably better options on their own NFL team. There’s more coming in every draft. Talent is flooding in faster than it’s retiring.

That said...with all the crazy depth of the position, what is seemingly dying out (but not gone) is the bonafide #1 wr, or the guy capable of 10+ type of target numbers per game.

I just wanted to open up a discussion about this, grab some of your thoughts. WRs are plentiful...but the truly elite (statistical) ones are reducing in numbers. There’s a lot of debate out there about the need to get your rbs because the elite scorers are so scarce...but could that be happening to the WRs? With the (supposed) flood of RB talent into the league and the spreading out of the ball amongst numerous talented WRs, could we be seeing a severe shortage of elite WR numbers in a couple years?

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:34 am

I think you are right ... there is definitely a change in philosophy going on. There's a handful of guys (AB, OBJ, Hopkins, maybe Julio) that can fill any role (outside, slot, vertical threat, red zone, etc), but the majority of WRs seem to be committee WRs that become dependent on game flow & match ups.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1)| DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| D. Carr, R. Tannehill, B. Osweiler, M. Rudolph (taxi), M. White (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Mixon, K. Drake, J. Samuels, J. Williams
|WR| M. Goodwin, C. Godwin, C. Beasley, D. Parker, M. Bryant, D.J. Moore, M. Gallup, A. Carr, Da. Moore, B. Butler, M. Lee (IR)
|TE| T. Kelce, M. Gesicki, R. Seals-Jones, I. Thomas, R. Gathers
|K| R. Gould, H. Butker
|DT| G. McCoy, S. Richardson, D. Poe
|DE| E. Ansah, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi), T. Bryan (taxi)
|LB| J. Clowney, R. Foster, A. Barr, L. Vander Esch, N. Perry, K. Emanuel, W. Mercilus, B. Gedeon, M. Jefferson, N. Bowman, K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR)
|CB| M. Peters, B. Jones, T. White, D. Trufant, J. Norman, J. Jackson (taxi)
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, B. Church, E. Murray, M. Burnett, E. Thomas (IR), S. Cravens (IR)
|PICKS| 2019 #1 (x2), #2, #5, #6

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:49 am

The true #1 WRs I see in the league right now are AB, OBJ, Hopkins, Evans, Julio, AJ, Michael Thomas, ARob, and Allen (maybe Alshon and Dez to a lesser extent).

We'll see how the next few years go. I'm betting the NFL will be cyclical, with defenses adjusting to passing offenses, offenses going back to running more, defenses adjusting to running offenses, and offenses passing more.
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:55 am

I think a lot of it is tied to the QBs coming into the league.

Spread offenses that are designed to create short but easy completions.

And yes, the fact that the small but shifty dudes can better maneuver in tight spaces (especially with some of the WR-favoring rules in today's game).
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Beathard
MIXON, AP, Collins, Ajayi, Chase E, R Smith, Blue
EVANS/HILL/DIGGS/KA/HILTON, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Tre'Quan, Pascal
GRONK, Vance, Shaheen
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DL: CHANDLER/FLOWERS/SHORT, Golden, Addison, Okafor, Sheard, Larry O, Malik J
LB: KENDRICKS/WARNER/ZACH C, Schobert, Williamson, R Evans, Walker, KJW, Bynes, Kyzir, Young
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/SIMMONS, John J, Kazee, TJ Mac, Diggs

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/DJ/MIXON, Guice, A Jones, Chase E, Darkwa
NUK/AJG/HILL/KA, Landry, Sammy, Hogan, J-Wash, J'Mon, JMatt, David Moore, J Wright
ENGRAM, Doyle, Vance, Higbee, Everett, Maxx, Herndon, Heuerman, Hollister
-
DL: BUCKNER/BARNETT/GRIFFEN/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Ogbah, Wolfe, Spence, Weatherly, Simon, Wilkerson, Horton
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/WARNER/HITCHENS, Danny T, KJW, Ebukam, Walker, Vince W, M Lee
DB: GEATHERS/POYER/JOHN J, Diggs, Kazee, Maye, Tavon, Hairston, Fuller

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby clarion contrarion » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:10 am

the 2 best corners in this draft are midgets if that trend continues it is ony a matter if time before the teeter totter edges back the other way to the aj green megatrons of the world - constant ebb & flow just be like water !
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Dookmariot » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:21 am

Could just be part of the general philosophy change you see in the NFL - less funneling the offense through a stud player, more deploying useful players given a certain situation. Kinda like "Belichick hates your fantasy team," only spread widely through the league. After all, he's the guy with all the rings...
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby xlur8ed » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:24 am

It's an interesting thought, and one that really required me to dig to find out how different (if at all) today's game is versus say...2000 & 2010 to get a feel. I'm using 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 Touchdowns to paint a clear picture of a solid WR1 (all TE/RB were removed from these stats).

2000:
Top target monster was Rod Smith with 173 for 100/1602/8 line
There were 24 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 17 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 5 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (All of which had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of them had 80 receptions, and all had 120+ targets)

2010:
Top target monster was HOT ROD Roddy White with 179 for 115/1389/10 line
There were 19 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 16 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (8 of 10 had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of 10 had 80 receptions, and 8 of 10 had 120+ targets.

2017:
Top target monster was DeAndre Hopkins with 174 for 96/1378/13 line
There were 14 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 2 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (Only 1 had a 1000 yard season, 1 of them had 80 receptions (same guy), and only 1 of them had 120+ targets (again, same guy, Hopkins).



So the comparison by year:
120 Targets: 2017 = 14 players, 2010 = 19 players, 2000 = 24 players
80 Receptions: 2017 = 10 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 13 players
1000 Yards Receiving: 2017 = 13 players, 2010 = 16 players, 2000 = 17 players
10 Touchdowns: 2017 = 2 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 5 players
Team 1: 10 Team - 0.5PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE
QB: Stafford, Rivers
RB: Bell, Collins, Ingram, McKinnon, Guice, Breida
WR: OBJ, ABrown, AJG, Hilton, Hogan, Godwin, MWilliams
TE: Gronk, Walker
2019 Pick: ~1.01

Team 2: 12 Team - 1.0PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
QB: Cousins, Ryan, Keenum
RB: Bell, DJ, Barkley, Gore, Abdullah, Buck Allen, Gillislee, EMcGuire
WR: JNelson, KBenjamin, JMatt, Amendola, GAllison, Decker, Inman, Kearse
TE: Reed, VDavis

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:34 am

It is something that I feel is accurate, it is very deep but top end talent is rare.

I think part of that lack of top end receivers is why a lot of people are currently advocating running backs over wide receivers, but I dare say there are more top tier running backs than there are wide receivers at this point.

We have also had a relative slump in immediate production from highly drafted WRs since the 2014 draft has come and gone which I think is a factor.

Is it because of the way that NFL offenses are evolving or because of a lack of high end talent?

I am not sure.
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Blueboy » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:38 am

Some teams are moving away from the protypical WR1 (the Julio/AJG's of the league) towards more of a 1a/1b WR scheme. Think Thielin/Diggs. Curious to see how much of that's going to sweep the league, or if teams will remain split. The 1a/1b has seen a lot of success recently.
With My China Gurley: 12 team SF, 2TE, Tiered PPR.
1QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 3Flex
QB: Luck, Tannehill, Darnold
RB: Gurley, Zeke, David Johnson, McCoy,
WR: Baldwin, Tate, Edelman, Shepard, Ross, Ginn, Sanu
TE: Ertz, Cook, Wilson, Andrews, Allen
2019 3rd

The Guy Is Drunk: 36 team SF, 3-copy. Tiered PPR.
1QB 1RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan
RB: D. Johnson, D. Freeman, Abdullah, Darkwa, F. Gore,
WR: Hopkins, TY Hilton, D. Thomas Shepard, Ridley, M. Williams, Kelvin Harmon (Devy)
TE: Gronk
2019 3rd

Ilango Never Dies: 12 team SF, PPR
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Goff, Mariota, Flacco, L. Jackson, Rudolph, Kizer, Lauletta
RB: Howard, Chubb, Lewis, Foreman, J. Williams, Ballage
WR: Tyreek Hill, ARob, M. Williams, Doctson, Coleman
TE: O.J. Howard, RSJ, Everett
2019 2nd 2nd 3rd

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby tresskid84 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:52 am

xlur8ed wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:24 am
It's an interesting thought, and one that really required me to dig to find out how different (if at all) today's game is versus say...2000 & 2010 to get a feel. I'm using 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 Touchdowns to paint a clear picture of a solid WR1 (all TE/RB were removed from these stats).

2000:
Top target monster was Rod Smith with 173 for 100/1602/8 line
There were 24 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 17 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 5 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (All of which had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of them had 80 receptions, and all had 120+ targets)

2010:
Top target monster was HOT ROD Roddy White with 179 for 115/1389/10 line
There were 19 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 16 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (8 of 10 had 1000 yard seasons, 2 of 10 had 80 receptions, and 8 of 10 had 120+ targets.

2017:
Top target monster was DeAndre Hopkins with 174 for 96/1378/13 line
There were 14 wide receivers that had at least 120 targets
There were 10 wide receivers with at least 80 receptions
There were 13 wide receivers with at least 1000 yards receiving
There were 2 wide receivers with at least 10 touchdowns (Only 1 had a 1000 yard season, 1 of them had 80 receptions (same guy), and only 1 of them had 120+ targets (again, same guy, Hopkins).



So the comparison by year:
120 Targets: 2017 = 14 players, 2010 = 19 players, 2000 = 24 players
80 Receptions: 2017 = 10 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 13 players
1000 Yards Receiving: 2017 = 13 players, 2010 = 16 players, 2000 = 17 players
10 Touchdowns: 2017 = 2 players, 2010 = 10 players, 2000 = 5 players
I was going to do a similar study, thank you for putting this snapshot together. It does look like there is a slight decline here (albeit a small sample of years), but not dramatic. Honestly, in any given era, I'm not sure their are less true number 1s right now compared to the past. I think last year was an outlier year for a few of the wrs at the top, and there could be regression in the positive for some of them. Last year, we also lost Odell and ARob to injury, and TY Hilton lost his qb (brissett was below average as a thrower) which affects this perception some I would think. My gut says right now their are the similar number of true number 1s as most eras, last year was just a strangely down year for fantasy scoring, which I think could be affecting our perceptions on this this, but I could also be wrong, haha.
16tm, 25 man rosters, Superflex, TE premium, 3 taxi for devy (can carry devy on main roster too):
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Superflex, 3 Flex
Draft is rookie and devy (only NFL draft-eligible players for the following year) combined


QB: M Trubisky, J Garoppolo (IR), M Rudolph, K Sloter
RB: A Jones, W Smallwood, J Adams, T Cannon
WR: C Sutton, M Gallup, J Washington, G Allison, D Hamilton, Treadwell, E St Brown, C Williams, C Coleman, D Willies, J Kumerow (IR), T Quinn (IR), C Wilson (IR)
TE: N Sterling, G Everett, J Hollister, M Roberts, C Uzomah
Devy Owned: QB-Will Grier, QB-Ryan Finley, WR-Deebo Samuel, WR-Anthony Johnson, WR-Tyler Vaughns, TE-Caleb Wilson
2019 picks: 4 Firsts, 4 Seconds, 1 Third

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby tresskid84 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:53 am

If there are fewer true number 1s, I would probably agree with the premise that there is just more volume of talented wrs in the league now making the need for a true number 1 less than previous eras/years
16tm, 25 man rosters, Superflex, TE premium, 3 taxi for devy (can carry devy on main roster too):
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Superflex, 3 Flex
Draft is rookie and devy (only NFL draft-eligible players for the following year) combined


QB: M Trubisky, J Garoppolo (IR), M Rudolph, K Sloter
RB: A Jones, W Smallwood, J Adams, T Cannon
WR: C Sutton, M Gallup, J Washington, G Allison, D Hamilton, Treadwell, E St Brown, C Williams, C Coleman, D Willies, J Kumerow (IR), T Quinn (IR), C Wilson (IR)
TE: N Sterling, G Everett, J Hollister, M Roberts, C Uzomah
Devy Owned: QB-Will Grier, QB-Ryan Finley, WR-Deebo Samuel, WR-Anthony Johnson, WR-Tyler Vaughns, TE-Caleb Wilson
2019 picks: 4 Firsts, 4 Seconds, 1 Third

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Mjvb5 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:06 am

I think in part this stems a lot from the glut of elite shutdown corners that are in the NFL right now, historically there's only a handful in the league at a time but now we've got
Lattimore, Rhodes, Pat Pete, Talib, harriss, Bouye, Ramsey, Slay, and Peters and then to a lesser extent guys like White, Heyward, Fuller,Trufant, Alford, Johnson, Butler, Mccourty
and then even the injured guys Jimmy Smith and Sherman
So with so many teams having a shutdown or elite cornerback it becomes more prevelant to avoid them, while these guys might not be on the primetime Sanders or Revis level they all I feel like could be considered shutdown.
12 team ppr 1qb 2rb 2wt 1te 1 flex 2lb 2db 2dl 1dflex
Eli manning,
A. Brown, Dez, TY Hilton,Crabtree, K. Aiken
D. Free, Howard, Ingram, demarco, AP, Powell
Kelce
Cam Jordan,Calais Campbell, Suh, Heyward, Sheard
Ogletree, Davis, Poz,Ragland, Woodyard, Misi, Demario Davis, Casillas
, Cyprien, Chancellor,

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:07 am

Blueboy wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:38 am
Some teams are moving away from the protypical WR1 (the Julio/AJG's of the league) towards more of a 1a/1b WR scheme. Think Thielin/Diggs. Curious to see how much of that's going to sweep the league, or if teams will remain split. The 1a/1b has seen a lot of success recently.
I don't think teams are deliberately going away from the big, fast, prototypical guys like Julio, AJG, etc.

It's just hard to get those types of players. I'm sure they'd all prefer to have a stud like that.
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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby moishetreats » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:41 am

It's the evolution of the passing game (and offense in general, not in small part due to protecting the QB and additional penalties on defensive players).

Look at Denver's passing game over the past few years (post-Manning in his heyday): standard two WRs with a blocking TE and a RB. That's actually more in line with how offenses tended to look 10-25 years ago (with much of those earlier years also featuring a fullback). When the QB in a Denver-type or older-school-type offense throws deeps, he might only have one or two options -- his WRs. That's why Thomas and Sanders have continued to be reliable pass-catchers even post-Peyton in PPR leagues.

Next look at how offenses have evolved today. Multiple sets featuring three, four, or even five WRs; TEs who are elite pass-catchers but can't block; RBs sliding out to a WR position; third-down RB pass-catching specialists.. Good QBs today don't need to look at their two starting WRs for production. With 4-5 on the field and/or a TE that can run and catch and/or a pass-catching RB, there are simply far more options for a QB -- a defense simply cannot defend them all. Elite players will still get theirs, but WR1's don't need to be featured the way that they used to. And defenses have learned to plan against those elite players (not always successfully), and offenses have to learned to attack defenses in other ways.

Absent the older-school offensive gameplan, spread offenses with great pass-catchers who are not only WRs give good QBs far more options to whom to throw. It's only natural that a team's #1 WR will tend to get a little less of the pie unless he is a special talent.
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Tm 1: 10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Prescott, Taylor, Kelly
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Foreman, Conner, Ballage, McGuire
WR: Hilton, Baldwin, D Thomas, Godwin, Doctson, Anderson, Ty Williams, Callaway
TE: Reed, Howard, Seals-Jones, Vannett, Goedert, Hurst, Hollister

2019: 1stx2, 2nd, 3rdx4
2020: 1st, 2nd, 5thx2



Tm 2: 12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Luck ($34 through 2021), Prescott (27/20), Winston (2/19), Kizer (1/18)
RB: Crowell (7/19), Conner (4/19), A Jones (10/19), J Williams (14/19), Allen (1/20), Sproles (1/18), Richard (1/18) {Foreman (9/20), McGuire (1/20), Warren (1/20)}
WR: Cooks, (1/19), Grant (1/20), Humphries (1/18), D Jackson (1/18), Sanu (1/18), A Wilson (1/20), Valdez-Scantling (1/22), {Kumerow 1/20}
TE: Gronk (2/20), Olsen (1/19), Davis (1/18), Hollister (2/20)
Total+dead cap hits $286

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Re: WR Scarcity

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:50 am

Money is a huge factor as well ... when a guy like Watkins makes $16 mil & OBJ is looking for $20 mil ... if I were a GM, I'd ask can I replace that production with two $8-10 million guys.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1)| DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| D. Carr, R. Tannehill, B. Osweiler, M. Rudolph (taxi), M. White (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Mixon, K. Drake, J. Samuels, J. Williams
|WR| M. Goodwin, C. Godwin, C. Beasley, D. Parker, M. Bryant, D.J. Moore, M. Gallup, A. Carr, Da. Moore, B. Butler, M. Lee (IR)
|TE| T. Kelce, M. Gesicki, R. Seals-Jones, I. Thomas, R. Gathers
|K| R. Gould, H. Butker
|DT| G. McCoy, S. Richardson, D. Poe
|DE| E. Ansah, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi), T. Bryan (taxi)
|LB| J. Clowney, R. Foster, A. Barr, L. Vander Esch, N. Perry, K. Emanuel, W. Mercilus, B. Gedeon, M. Jefferson, N. Bowman, K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR)
|CB| M. Peters, B. Jones, T. White, D. Trufant, J. Norman, J. Jackson (taxi)
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, B. Church, E. Murray, M. Burnett, E. Thomas (IR), S. Cravens (IR)
|PICKS| 2019 #1 (x2), #2, #5, #6


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