Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[Jfever]

There is danger in taking too much from small sample sizes. I do like Josh Allen and I do think he has a very high potential ceiling. However, historically, he isn't that accurate. He can run, he does have a strong arm. I'm betting that, with time and some NFL experience + coaching, he can tweak his mechanics to slightly improve his accuracy struggles of the past. Also, with time, experience, and NFL coaching, I think his decision making skills can / will improve. He is loaded with raw talent and I'm confident that those that labeled him too early, made a mistake.

[bjd5211]

Ya he's definitely far from a finished product or a sure thing long-term, I just really like what I have seen so far and think he has definitely exceeded expectations for how he would be performing at this point in his career.

[petebusey]

There is danger in taking too much from small sample sizes. I do like Josh Allen and I do think he has a very high potential ceiling. However, historically, he isn't that accurate. He can run, he does have a strong arm. I'm betting that, with time and some NFL experience + coaching, he can tweak his mechanics to slightly improve his accuracy struggles of the past. Also, with time, experience, and NFL coaching, I think his decision making skills can / will improve. He is loaded with raw talent and I'm confident that those that labeled him too early, made a mistake.

I'm sorry as this has probably been gone over time and time again, but is he really that inaccurate?
Or are people just saying that he is so inaccurate because he had/has such a low completion percentage.

Other things go into completion percentage, such as receiver drops, receiver contested catch %, receiver separation, going through your reads and picking the right receiver to throw to, receivers running the wrong route (or at least at inconsistent depths, rounding off routes, etc), a collapsing pocket, and a game plan that you are comfortable with ...and many more things.

I've heard analysts at different times say when they see him in person he is a accurate thrower of the football both at the combine and in games.

[Cgindecent]

I dug this up from a reddit post on Josh Allen that I started that I found quite intriguing.

In Cam's MVP season his completion % was 59.8% but he rushed for 636 yards and 10 TDs. Allen has played basically 6.5 games (let's round to 6 for simplicity) and has 254 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Extrapolate that to a full season and it's 677 yards and... 10 TDs.

Completion percentage isnt necessarily the end all be all to be relevant, especially in fantasy. Norv Turner has turned Carolina into a more favorable completion percentage type offense for Cam this year and you can see the benefits it has had.

[tresskid84]

There is danger in taking too much from small sample sizes. I do like Josh Allen and I do think he has a very high potential ceiling. However, historically, he isn't that accurate. He can run, he does have a strong arm. I'm betting that, with time and some NFL experience + coaching, he can tweak his mechanics to slightly improve his accuracy struggles of the past. Also, with time, experience, and NFL coaching, I think his decision making skills can / will improve. He is loaded with raw talent and I'm confident that those that labeled him too early, made a mistake.

I'm sorry as this has probably been gone over time and time again, but is he really that inaccurate?
Or are people just saying that he is so inaccurate because he had/has such a low completion percentage.

Other things go into completion percentage, such as receiver drops, receiver contested catch %, receiver separation, going through your reads and picking the right receiver to throw to, receivers running the wrong route (or at least at inconsistent depths, rounding off routes, etc), a collapsing pocket, and a game plan that you are comfortable with ...and many more things.

I've heard analysts at different times say when they see him in person he is a accurate thrower of the football both at the combine and in games.

Are we doing this again??? His adjusted completion percentage (which accounts for drops) is second worst in the league (only ahead of Tyrod for qualifying players). His completion percentage (and adjusted completion percentage) has consistently been terrible, dating back to college. If you watch his overall body of work on tape (and not just his wow/highlight plays) you will see poor ball placement and overall accuracy. I actually own him in a few leagues, because I agree, he has fantasy upside, but anyone that calls him accurate is being blinded by what they want to see due to his tremendous physical gifts/upside.

[osubuckeyeman]

He has shown what he can do in fantasy the last 2 weeks. He has outplayed his draft position. The ceiling on Allen is only limited by the offense evolving after they draft weapons for him but still for fantasy you got your value for him and he has real potential to be a QB1.

[Friction]

His rushing gives him a really nice floor now. His TOs are not too bad, I assume the one at the end of the first half was a hail Mary or similar. Accuracy should not hurt fantasy points in most leagues. I think the run totals were unexpected even as a ceiling, though he is known to be athletic. I just never saw many say they anticipated a fair amount of rushing yards/scores. That will regress of course, especially with adding receiving weapons and wanting to keep him healthy.

[DJB]

Give this guy some competent WR and TE and we could be looking at a top 12 fantasy QB

[failblazer]

Am I crazy or is Allen a sell high in the offseason if he finishes his rookie year strong?

[bjd5211]

Am I crazy or is Allen a sell high in the offseason if he finishes his rookie year strong?

Depends on what your definition on "high" is and the league format. 1QB leagues I doubt he fetches you much still and you will be better off just keeping him and hoping he continues his development and the Bills get him more help on the O-line and more weapons to work with. SF and especially 2QB though you can make a strong case for him being worth the #1 overall rookie pick this year, it's a very weak QB class and there's nothing close to a consensus top prospect in this years draft.

[Space Cowboy]

Not here to nitpick, he's been really good and has pumped life into that team but he missed a wide open WR in the endzone. Wide open.

[FantasyFreak]

I traded him for a first and 2 seconds in a SF, still not sure how I feel about it, but I don't trust the Bills. 135 rushing yards after 99? This can't be expected weekly, but wow.

[tresskid84]

Not here to nitpick, he's been really good and has pumped life into that team but he missed a wide open WR in the endzone. Wide open.

This isn't the week I am going to nitpick him for that throw. Definitely looked like it came out of his hand wrong, but Clay should have gotten to that ball. Allen was legit this week.

[Life of Pablo]

Arrgh... picked up Allen in our shallow league last week... then had to drop him so I could win the Ware sweepstakes. In hindsight I probably should've just given up on D'Onta Foreman and cut ties with him instead. In the 2% chance Allen will still be available Wednesday morning, I may do just that.

[Space Cowboy]

Not here to nitpick, he's been really good and has pumped life into that team but he missed a wide open WR in the endzone. Wide open.

This isn't the week I am going to nitpick him for that throw. Definitely looked like it came out of his hand wrong, but Clay should have gotten to that ball. Allen was legit this week.

He needs to run less, they all think they're tougher than nails until the real hits come. (RGIII, Luck, Rodgers....) But yes he has looked very good.