Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[bsp27]

Of the top guys, this year, do any of them have "weak" arms? Allen's is the only one that I'd consider having a cannon, but of the 5 likely to go in the first, I don't think any of them have weak arms.

Lamar Jackson has 1st percentile throw velocity

[tresskid84]

Of the top guys, this year, do any of them have "weak" arms? Allen's is the only one that I'd consider having a cannon, but of the 5 likely to go in the first, I don't think any of them have weak arms.

Lamar Jackson has 1st percentile throw velocity

I saw that when it was reported, and it surprised me. Maybe the fact that he flicks the ball somehow tricks my eyes into thinking he has a stronger arm, haha.

[ericanadian]

Of the top guys, this year, do any of them have "weak" arms? Allen's is the only one that I'd consider having a cannon, but of the 5 likely to go in the first, I don't think any of them have weak arms.

Lamar Jackson has 1st percentile throw velocity

Tyrod Taylor & DeShaun Watson also had terrible velocity measurements. It could just be a mechanics issue, but I sometimes wonder if some guys take a bit off in order to be more accurate when there are questions about their accuracy.

[tresskid84]

Tyrod Taylor & DeShaun Watson also had terrible velocity measurements. It could just be a mechanics issue, but I sometimes wonder if some guys take a bit off in order to be more accurate when there are questions about their accuracy.

Could very well be an explanation.

[ImaRounder]

It's funny when people live off stats and when another person tries to justify against their stats its bull bleep, but as soon as someone else throws a stat they don't like, that same person tries to justify it with bull bleep

[tresskid84]

It's funny when people live off stats and when another person tries to justify against their stats its bull bleep, but as soon as someone else throws a stat they don't like, that same person tries to justify it with bull bleep

I'm fine with people countering my arguments. In fact, I encourage it. But when the argument someone gives me the "you don't watch tape", or posts a bunch of cherry picked videos of good plays, I'm not going to take their opinion seriously. If I cherry picked his missed throws, I know I would get killed by the "everyone misses throws" argument, so why bother. That is why I counter the arguments with more data/stats. Not because I live by it (though I admit, I do put value into them, obviously), but because cherry picking videos, both good and bad, is a flawed way to argue your point, because every qb has good and bad throws.

With Allen, my eyes have shown me a qb who stares down his first receiver often, who, though he already does things like make checks at line, reacts to pressure poorly, who's accuracy is below average (and I'm not talking about completion percentage, which I actually do think he is more accurate than that percentage indicates, but still below average), and who's footwork needs a lot of improvement and the data backs it up, which further reinforces what I already thought.

I see the positives, he is athletic, he throws very well while rolling, he has a cannon and will be able to make throws other qbs dream of, and he seems very smart and seems to do well on the white board from everything I've read. This is why I have stated, I would actually like if my team got him on Day 2, hes not without upside and if he reaches that upside, he would be a great qb. However, there are several qbs I would take before him, because I feel like his flaws are great enough that I think he is less likely to be successful than to fulfill that upside. Day 2, I'm happy taking that risk, but there are 4 qbs I would rather take in this class before him and I would not feel comfortable using a 1 on a qb with his level of flaws.

[Cult of Dionysus]

It's funny when people live off stats and when another person tries to justify against their stats its bull bleep, but as soon as someone else throws a stat they don't like, that same person tries to justify it with bull bleep

I'm fine with people countering my arguments. In fact, I encourage it. But when the argument someone gives me the "you don't watch tape", or posts a bunch of cherry picked videos of good plays, I'm not going to take their opinion seriously. If I cherry picked his missed throws, I know I would get killed by the "everyone misses throws" argument, so why bother. That is why I counter the arguments with more data/stats. Not because I live by it (though I admit, I do put value into them, obviously), but because cherry picking videos, both good and bad, is a flawed way to argue your point, because every qb has good and bad throws.

With Allen, my eyes have shown me a qb who stares down his first receiver often, who, though he already does things like make checks at line, reacts to pressure poorly, who's accuracy is below average (and I'm not talking about completion percentage, which I actually do think he is more accurate than that percentage indicates, but still below average), and who's footwork needs a lot of improvement and the data backs it up, which further reinforces what I already thought.

I see the positives, he is athletic, he throws very well while rolling, he has a cannon and will be able to make throws other qbs dream of, and he seems very smart and seems to do well on the white board from everything I've read. This is why I have stated, I would actually like if my team got him on Day 2, hes not without upside and if he reaches that upside, he would be a great qb. However, there are several qbs I would take before him, because I feel like his flaws are great enough that I think he is less likely to be successful than to fulfill that upside. Day 2, I'm happy taking that risk, but there are 4 qbs I would rather take in this class before him and I would not feel comfortable using a 1 on a qb with his level of flaws.

Dude, how dare you bring logic, research and analytics into this! We rely purely on forum dogma, speculation, highlight videos and group-think, in ascending order of importance!

[ImaRounder]

It's funny when people live off stats and when another person tries to justify against their stats its bull bleep, but as soon as someone else throws a stat they don't like, that same person tries to justify it with bull bleep

I'm fine with people countering my arguments. In fact, I encourage it. But when the argument someone gives me the "you don't watch tape", or posts a bunch of cherry picked videos of good plays, I'm not going to take their opinion seriously. If I cherry picked his missed throws, I know I would get killed by the "everyone misses throws" argument, so why bother. That is why I counter the arguments with more data/stats. Not because I live by it (though I admit, I do put value into them, obviously), but because cherry picking videos, both good and bad, is a flawed way to argue your point, because every qb has good and bad throws.

With Allen, my eyes have shown me a qb who stares down his first receiver often, who, though he already does things like make checks at line, reacts to pressure poorly, who's accuracy is below average (and I'm not talking about completion percentage, which I actually do think he is more accurate than that percentage indicates, but still below average), and who's footwork needs a lot of improvement and the data backs it up, which further reinforces what I already thought.

I see the positives, he is athletic, he throws very well while rolling, he has a cannon and will be able to make throws other qbs dream of, and he seems very smart and seems to do well on the white board from everything I've read. This is why I have stated, I would actually like if my team got him on Day 2, hes not without upside and if he reaches that upside, he would be a great qb. However, there are several qbs I would take before him, because I feel like his flaws are great enough that I think he is less likely to be successful than to fulfill that upside. Day 2, I'm happy taking that risk, but there are 4 qbs I would rather take in this class before him and I would not feel comfortable using a 1 on a qb with his level of flaws.

I wasnt really talking about you in particular. It's a common theme in these parts for the nerds. I haven't really argued with you at all. You have made your points very clear and I understand all of them, even through mostly advanced statistics. You were arguing with the other guy. Don't care enough to look up his name.

My argument has never been I think Allen is the best qb in this draft or that he should be the number one pick.

[tresskid84]

I wasnt really talking about you in particular. It's a common theme in these parts for the nerds. I haven't really argued with you at all. You have made your points very clear and I understand all of them, even through mostly advanced statistics. You were arguing with the other guy. Don't care enough to look up his name.

My argument has never been I think Allen is the best qb in this draft or that he should be the number one pick.

I knew you weren't the one arguing with me, and I wasn't referring you to you in my post as well, haha, but I felt in this case, I have been the most active arguer on here using stats, haha, so I responded. I appreciate your understanding and openness to my points, even if you are of an opposing view, that is what this is all about, haha. And I actually have agreed, to a degree, with some of the arguments you have made. I do think his inaccuracy is overblown by some skeptics, though I still view him as inaccurate compared to the average QB. And your sentiment on it being the QB's who footwork are good and they are still inaccurate being a much bigger issue is spot on.

And I can see why someone would like Allen. He does flash accuracy and that arm is incredible. I just haven't consistency from him and there are really concerning things that show up in his tape. Add that to the statistical research, and I have a tough time buying in. But like I said, if I'm wrong, I will gladly eat some crow.

[Servo]

It's almost like it's too good to be true: Allen has great measurables, wonderlic, etc but why couldn't those things translate on the field where it all matters most?

From an NFL perspective, fine, if you're enamored by the upside, spend a late 1st or early 2nd on the guy....like Lynch or Kizer. Spending a Top 5 or Top 10 pick on someone that needs FAR more work than Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen/etc. doesn't appear to be a winning strategy.

From a SF/2QB perspective, I'd be comfortable taking Allen in the 2nd at some point but I may not touch him at all dependent on where he goes.

[Forza_Azzurri]

It's almost like it's too good to be true: Allen has great measurables, wonderlic, etc but why couldn't those things translate on the field where it all matters most?

From an NFL perspective, fine, if you're enamored by the upside, spend a late 1st or early 2nd on the guy....like Lynch or Kizer. Spending a Top 5 or Top 10 pick on someone that needs FAR more work than Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen/etc. doesn't appear to be a winning strategy.

From a SF/2QB perspective, I'd be comfortable taking Allen in the 2nd at some point but I may not touch him at all dependent on where he goes.

Everything you hear about him from a character, "coachability" & leadership stand point has been very positive. That's why, while I recognize his risk, I suspect he's never really gotten quality coaching to let his talent blossom.

[tresskid84]

Everything you hear about him from a character, "coachability" & leadership stand point has been very positive. That's why, while I recognize his risk, I suspect he's never really gotten quality coaching to let his talent blossom.

Can't really speak to this other than saying I've read a lot of positive things about Brent Vigen, his OC/QB coach . . . I have no personal insight or knowledge about how quality his teaching is behind the scenes though, other than the few things I've read

[Servo]

And that his HC for the last two seasons was Carson Wentz's HC at NDSU...

[tresskid84]

And that his HC for the last two seasons was Carson Wentz's HC at NDSU...

Yep, OC was there as well

[ArrylT]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... over-allen

NFL Execs rank Josh Allen QB #2.