Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[myndflyte]

The hype is off the charts for this guy. NFL Network this morning had a segment called "The Science of Josh Allen". They even had John Brenkus and Trent Dilfer hosting the segment where they used special sensors and everything. There are going to be so many wasted man hours on this guy if he busts.

[Jason3123]

Moreso his receivers weren't talented enough to catch his fastballs even if they were well placed. Pretty sure JUCO receivers would be even less talented.

So he's so great he needs NFL caliber receivers to complete passes? Lol. Ok.

Ever play quarterback?

So Baker's 70% is because all his WR's will be NFL caliber WR's? Or Luke Falk's 67%? Interesting. I thought it was because they threw catchable passes, not because their WR's were great. What do I know though.

[myndflyte]

So he's so great he needs NFL caliber receivers to complete passes? Lol. Ok.

Ever play quarterback?

So Baker's 70% is because all his WR's will be NFL caliber WR's? Or Luke Falk's 67%? Interesting. I thought it was because they threw catchable passes, not because their WR's were great. What do I know though.

Or somehow how Tom Brady keeps getting to/winning Super Bowls with his corp of receivers, outside the Randy Moss years.

[ninotoreS]

I just can't get on board with a QB that completed 56% of his passes in his two collegiate seasons as a starter, not unless he's Mike Vick at VT, and Allen ain't.

Allen's feet are a mess, and he only throws with anticipation slightly better than Paxton Lynch did at Memphis (who was abysmal at it), and you see the faceplant he's been for the Broncos. Perhaps it's reasonable to hope Allen's other flaws are correctable with more experience and coaching, but bad feet and inability to throw receivers open tends to carry over to the NFL permanently.

I think the Browns are making a mistake if they take Allen at 1.1 or 1.4, and if they do, don't be surprised if Tyrod Taylor remains the starter in Cleveland for longer than just '18.

When are NFL teams gonna learn to stop falling in love with toolsy-but-hyper-project 6'4" - 6'6" QBs? How many times do these guys need to bust before front-offices take off the rose-tinted glasses? Practically all of the argument for Allen as a round 1 pick -- much less early round 1 pick -- is pure projection. Guys like this should only go on Day 2/3.

[tresskid84]

Moreso his receivers weren't talented enough to catch his fastballs even if they were well placed. Pretty sure JUCO receivers would be even less talented.

Even accounting for drops, his accuracy percentage is at the bottom of the class

I usually just read some posts on here and go on my way but I had to make an account to ask you what do you see wrong with Josh Allen? You mention accuracy but list his completion percentage as the reason. Since his receivers would drop around a handful of passes a game, can you be more specific for why you think he isn’t accurate since using completion percentage would be a flawed argument.

Right now I have Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, Jackson. You mentioned Darnold having great accuracy and I have to ask if you have watched any tape on him? I see more erratic, under, over thrown balls from Darnold than from Allen. Shoot there was one game where he was 0 for 10??? on throws that were 10+ yards.

I'm not going based off completion percentage, as I have stated already, I'm going off accuracy percentage, which accounts for drops, batted passes and passes thrown away. I have both watched a lot on them (both live games during the year and on draft breakdown) as well as read a lot of research on them (one source is PFF, which has some great charting which I have been referencing a lot, including newly released data on advanced accuracy, such as hitting players on their frame, over throws, under throws, ahead, behind, etc). The reading I have done reinforced what I say with my eyes, so I feel pretty confident in my take, haha. When Darnold misses, he does tend to miss by overthrowing and underthrowing, I won't dispute that. But he also has some of the highest percentage of throws hitting the wr perfectly on frame and in stride in this class, which is what I've seen on tape the last two years. Baker's accuracy is on a different level across the board and he is by far the best qb all around to me (only ding I see is his height, which I can live with).

I honestly don't understand how anyone who has watched multiple games of Allen play doesn't see that he has accuracy issues. His ball placement is below average, and he just flat out misses too often, even when his wr does have a step or is wide open. This is especially evident when his pocket gets muddled or he is under pressure. I think when circumstances are perfect, yes, he can be accurate (as can a lot of qbs), but its when he has to reset his feet or adjust to pressure around him, his decisions and accuracy suffer greatly. On all of Allen's passes, only 51% of them hit the wr on his frame/in stride (regardless if the ball was caught or not, per PFF). Compare that to Baker who was at 66% and Darnold (62%). There is a large difference there and it shows up when I watch them.

[ImaRounder]

I just can't get on board with a QB that completed 56% of his passes in his two collegiate seasons as a starter, not unless he's Mike Vick at VT, and Allen ain't.

Allen's feet are a mess, and he only throws with anticipation slightly better than Paxton Lynch did at Memphis (who was abysmal at it), and you see the faceplant he's been for the Broncos. Perhaps it's reasonable to hope Allen's other flaws are correctable with more experience and coaching, but bad feet and inability to throw receivers open tends to carry over to the NFL permanently.

I think the Browns are making a mistake if they take Allen at 1.1 or 1.4, and if they do, don't be surprised if Tyrod Taylor remains the starter in Cleveland for longer than just '18.

When are NFL teams gonna learn to stop falling in love with toolsy-but-hyper-project 6'4" - 6'6" QBs? How many times do these guys need to bust before front-offices take off the rose-tinted glasses? Practically all of the argument for Allen as a round 1 pick -- much less early round 1 pick -- is pure projection. Guys like this should only go on Day 2/3.

inaccuracy is usually because of bad footwork. if you have good footwork and you're inaccurate there is more to worry about. there are so many reasons for a low completion percentage and I'm not saying allen isn't somewhat inaccurate, but like I said he is not any less of a project than anyone besides rosen. but rosen could have an issue in the locker room. who knows though, pure speculation on all of our parts. even the "experts"

back to jason who completely avoided the question. I'll answer your question of what do you know... apparently nothing that goes into being a qb besides what you read or heard. your responses have zero validity. so you can save your smart bleep remarks for somewhere else

[Jason3123]

I just can't get on board with a QB that completed 56% of his passes in his two collegiate seasons as a starter, not unless he's Mike Vick at VT, and Allen ain't.

Allen's feet are a mess, and he only throws with anticipation slightly better than Paxton Lynch did at Memphis (who was abysmal at it), and you see the faceplant he's been for the Broncos. Perhaps it's reasonable to hope Allen's other flaws are correctable with more experience and coaching, but bad feet and inability to throw receivers open tends to carry over to the NFL permanently.

I think the Browns are making a mistake if they take Allen at 1.1 or 1.4, and if they do, don't be surprised if Tyrod Taylor remains the starter in Cleveland for longer than just '18.

When are NFL teams gonna learn to stop falling in love with toolsy-but-hyper-project 6'4" - 6'6" QBs? How many times do these guys need to bust before front-offices take off the rose-tinted glasses? Practically all of the argument for Allen as a round 1 pick -- much less early round 1 pick -- is pure projection. Guys like this should only go on Day 2/3.

inaccuracy is usually because of bad footwork. if you have good footwork and you're inaccurate there is more to worry about. there are so many reasons for a low completion percentage and I'm not saying allen isn't somewhat inaccurate, but like I said he is not any less of a project than anyone besides rosen. but rosen could have an issue in the locker room. who knows though, pure speculation on all of our parts. even the "experts"

back to jason who completely avoided the question. I'll answer your question of what do you know... apparently nothing that goes into being a qb besides what you read or heard. your responses have zero validity. so you can save your smart bleep remarks for somewhere else

Lol...don't get so emotional. I answered your question. You continue to ignore facts and evidence and just blame his receivers which is the laziest and dumbest analysis one can spread on here, but since you need even clearer analysis here you go:

1. His final season AY/A of 6.7 is pathetic and will be one of the worst for a first round QB. He's basically Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. Have fun with that. You claim he has no help but even when compared to other small school QB's like Ben and Wentz he is destroyed in comparison because he bleep sucks just like your analysis.
2. Poor recruit, sucked at community college playing against unathletic losers like yourself.
3. His TD/Int% ratio compared to other 1st round QB's puts him in the lower 40% tile with other losers like EJ Manuel, Jason Campbell and Ryan Tannehill. Unless you think he's Carson Palmer or Matt Stafford (highly recruited, big time program players, basically the opposite of Allen), his future outlook is bleaker than your career of analyzing QB's.

If you think he's the #1 pick then I feel sorry for you. Wish I was in your leagues!! Tell me more about how his receivers are to blame for his pathetic resume.

[tresskid84]

Look what Josh Allen has done to us, lol

[Dookmarriot]

Things did escalate pretty quickly.

I'll say this much - any quarterback that goes to Cleveland is immediately hamstrung, because the organization has shown themselves to be pretty awful at coaching talented prospects to work through their weaknesses.

[tresskid84]

Things did escalate pretty quickly.

I'll say this much - any quarterback that goes to Cleveland is immediately hamstrung, because the organization has shown themselves to be pretty awful at coaching talented prospects to work through their weaknesses.

Can't wait until they draft qbs at 1 and 4, lol . . . ruin double the amount of careers (at least until Hue makes his well-deserved exit, Brett Brown he is not)

[Jason3123]

Look what Josh Allen has done to us, lol

Lol, it's all good. I just hate to see another community member die on the Josh Allen hill. It's not worth it. If he ends up good, awesome, better for the NFL and for fantasy players, but it's asinine and just ignorant to claim he's the #1 QB. Then again, none of us really know bleep and can just say whatever we want because it'll be years before we actually know the answer.

[myndflyte]

Look what Josh Allen has done to us, lol

Lol, it's all good. I just hate to see another community member die on the Josh Allen hill. It's not worth it. If he ends up good, awesome, better for the NFL and for fantasy players, but it's asinine and just ignorant to claim he's the #1 QB. Then again, none of us really know bleep and can just say whatever we want because it'll be years before we actually know the answer.

Unless the Browns do decide to draft him, in which case he'll be destroyed in a year.

[Jason3123]

Look what Josh Allen has done to us, lol

Lol, it's all good. I just hate to see another community member die on the Josh Allen hill. It's not worth it. If he ends up good, awesome, better for the NFL and for fantasy players, but it's asinine and just ignorant to claim he's the #1 QB. Then again, none of us really know bleep and can just say whatever we want because it'll be years before we actually know the answer.

Unless the Browns do decide to draft him, in which case he'll be destroyed in a year.

Very true. Date of death: 04/26/2018 for Allen if that happens. Cleveland should be charged with murder.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I'm lucky in that I own the 1.01 and the 1.11 picks in my 2018 Superflex rookie draft. So I won't have to worry about drafting Allen, because I'm taking Barkley at 1.01 and Allen won't be around at 1.11. I would hate to have pick 1.07 or 1.08, and have to make a decision on Allen. The dude has a shot at being the next Brett Favre, but most likely he will flame out big time.

[XxBallMeBlazerxX]

Even accounting for drops, his accuracy percentage is at the bottom of the class

I usually just read some posts on here and go on my way but I had to make an account to ask you what do you see wrong with Josh Allen? You mention accuracy but list his completion percentage as the reason. Since his receivers would drop around a handful of passes a game, can you be more specific for why you think he isn’t accurate since using completion percentage would be a flawed argument.

Right now I have Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, Jackson. You mentioned Darnold having great accuracy and I have to ask if you have watched any tape on him? I see more erratic, under, over thrown balls from Darnold than from Allen. Shoot there was one game where he was 0 for 10??? on throws that were 10+ yards.

I'm not going based off completion percentage, as I have stated already, I'm going off accuracy percentage, which accounts for drops, batted passes and passes thrown away. I have both watched a lot on them (both live games during the year and on draft breakdown) as well as read a lot of research on them (one source is PFF, which has some great charting which I have been referencing a lot, including newly released data on advanced accuracy, such as hitting players on their frame, over throws, under throws, ahead, behind, etc). The reading I have done reinforced what I say with my eyes, so I feel pretty confident in my take, haha. When Darnold misses, he does tend to miss by overthrowing and underthrowing, I won't dispute that. But he also has some of the highest percentage of throws hitting the wr perfectly on frame and in stride in this class, which is what I've seen on tape the last two years. Baker's accuracy is on a different level across the board and he is by far the best qb all around to me (only ding I see is his height, which I can live with).

I honestly don't understand how anyone who has watched multiple games of Allen play doesn't see that he has accuracy issues. His ball placement is below average, and he just flat out misses too often, even when his wr does have a step or is wide open. This is especially evident when his pocket gets muddled or he is under pressure. I think when circumstances are perfect, yes, he can be accurate (as can a lot of qbs), but its when he has to reset his feet or adjust to pressure around him, his decisions and accuracy suffer greatly. On all of Allen's passes, only 51% of them hit the wr on his frame/in stride (regardless if the ball was caught or not, per PFF). Compare that to Baker who was at 66% and Darnold (62%). There is a large difference there and it shows up when I watch them.

Bro, get a new source and actually watch the film. Then you will see why Allen is predicted to go 1st. He isn’t a sure fire but he is one of the best qb’s in this class. Rosen is the safe bet and Allen has the most potential. Allen’s main issue is reading defenses and learning to throw with touch, not accuracy. Yes he needs work with his footwork and mechanics but what QB doesnt?

Baker’s not as accurate as the numbers say. If you want to see what I mean, watch the Georgia and Ohio State games. Plus, it’s way easier to hit receivers when they have amazing separation from the defenders or are wide open, something he won’t see much on Sunday’s. In the Georgia and Ohio State games, when there wasn’t much separation from his receivers, he complete I think a combined 3 passes. The rest were either over,under thrown or batted away.