Let's Talk Landing Spots

[ascherb]

Seems like the pecking order at RB is something like:

1. Barkley
2. Guice
3-5. Penny, Chubb, Michel
6. Rojo

At WR, who the hell knows?

1-2. Sutton, Moore
3-9. Ridley, Washington, Kirk, Gallup, ESB, Chark, Miller

My questions up for discussion:

1. Which players are you holding firm on regardless of landing spot (within reason, obviously)
2. Would any of these player significantly rise based solely on landing spot?
3. What landing spots are you hoping for for which players?
4. Would your opinion on the fantasy value of any of these players completely change based on landing spot?

For me, I own 1.03, 1.05 and 1.08 in one of my main leagues. I'm very interested to see where Guice, Chubb, Michel and Penny wind up, because there's a good chance I will end up with those of those players.

I think whoever ends up in Tampa will be in a good spot. Decent O-line led by Dotson and Marpet, got the QB, got the WRs to take pressure off, and the coaching staff clearly sees the need to be a more balanced offense.

Giants are obviously a hyped destination with that offense. Imagine if Dez goes there. Their only question is the blocking up front.

[Phaded]

1) Ronald Jones
I am one of the few around here that likes him; and the more and more things are shaping up, the more I am liking him as my guy in the late 1st. I cannot see a landing spot that would make me sour on him, I just hope for one that isn't TOO desirable that causes everyone else to suddenly like him due to landing spot.

2) I think the favourable landing spots are pretty obvious at this point - and barring some miraculous landing spot for some mid prospect, it probably will not affect me too much; it's a nice tiebreaker though. Everyone thought Kamara landed in an awful spot and look how that turned out.

3) As an owner of 1.01; I'm actually nervous about the Barkley landing spot. I'm hoping he slides to Tampa at 7 as none of the teams in the top 6 really excite me for him.

4) Landing spot? No. Draft position? Probably.

[Pullo Vision]

1) Ronald Jones
I am one of the few around here that likes him; and the more and more things are shaping up, the more I am liking him as my guy in the late 1st. I cannot see a landing spot that would make me sour on him, I just hope for one that isn't TOO desirable that causes everyone else to suddenly like him due to landing spot.

2) I think the favourable landing spots are pretty obvious at this point - and barring some miraculous landing spot for some mid prospect, it probably will not affect me too much; it's a nice tiebreaker though. Everyone thought Kamara landed in an awful spot and look how that turned out.

3) As an owner of 1.01; I'm actually nervous about the Barkley landing spot. I'm hoping he slides to Tampa at 7 as none of the teams in the top 6 really excite me for him.

4) Landing spot? No. Draft position? Probably.

I've gotten the sense Jones is a mid 1st guy. Not certain I see enough situations pushing some combo of WRs/TEs/QBs above him and other talents. Not saying that should be what happens, just seems that will.

I wasn't active on this board last year, but I loved the Kamara landing spot. Peterson and Ingram could handle the tackle work while Kamara handled off tackle. He seemed guaranteed a floor and we've now seen his value and production ceiling.

Don't necessarily disagree about your Barkley fears, but Hugh Jackson has built strong rushing attacks from duct tape and bubble gum. Got DMC's best years in Oakland. If Barkley goes to any of the current top 6, Cleveland would be a perfectly fine spot.

[lukkynumber13]

Landing spot? No. Draft position? Probably.

EXACTLY. I know I personally need to stop pretending I can predict what a situation will be next year. So going off of "situation" is foolhardy. But draft capital is quite telling. It isn't EVERYTHING, but it is something for sure.

[DynoScout]

1. Which players are you holding firm on regardless of landing spot (within reason, obviously)
-----Pretty much just Barkley.
2. Would any of these player significantly rise based solely on landing spot?
-----I could see Deon Cain rise based on landing spot, due to personal confirmation bias. I think he's going to translate to NFL, but I acknowledge it's risky enough that I'm not diving in all the way until after the draft.
-----In general the landing spots will help me organize within tiers, not necessarily cause me to move players up/down/across tiers. Cain is one potential exception I can see.
3. What landing spots are you hoping for for which players?
-----Taking Cain for example, if he is a Day 2 pick by GB, SF, SEA, or ATL then I think he will be well positioned to reach his ceiling
-----TE to New Orleans at the end of the first or second would add a potential high-end streaming option to the market
-----If Rosen drops to a good team who accepts him and sets him up for success it would not surprise me if he is in MVP consideration before his rookie contract plays out
4. Would your opinion on the fantasy value of any of these players completely change based on landing spot?
----Not on landing spot so much as draft position. If I believe in a player, then a crowded position/skill group doesn't bother me. However, knowing that a player is on the fringe of their NFL roster value-wise is a red-flag for me.

[The Red Rooster]

Landing spot? No. Draft position? Probably.

EXACTLY. I know I personally need to stop pretending I can predict what a situation will be next year. So going off of "situation" is foolhardy. But draft capital is quite telling. It isn't EVERYTHING, but it is something for sure.

Especially when teams move up and give up future picks to draft their guy (as was the case with Kamara and Hunt).

[Vcize]

Landing spot? No. Draft position? Probably.

EXACTLY. I know I personally need to stop pretending I can predict what a situation will be next year. So going off of "situation" is foolhardy. But draft capital is quite telling. It isn't EVERYTHING, but it is something for sure.

Especially when teams move up and give up future picks to draft their guy (as was the case with Kamara and Hunt).

I think this is recency bias. I don't have the list on me but I thought we had this discussion a few years ago where the guys that were traded up for had a terrible track record.

[The Red Rooster]

EXACTLY. I know I personally need to stop pretending I can predict what a situation will be next year. So going off of "situation" is foolhardy. But draft capital is quite telling. It isn't EVERYTHING, but it is something for sure.

Especially when teams move up and give up future picks to draft their guy (as was the case with Kamara and Hunt).

I think this is recency bias. I don't have the list on me but I thought we had this discussion a few years ago where the guys that were traded up for had a terrible track record.

There is certainly no rule or formula that works in dynasty fantasy football for predicting talent or production (for every AP there is a Trent Richardson). Sometimes players just flop but I do think its reasonable to say a team likes a particular player given what they have invested in that player (via draft picks or other players)...and it would suggest (again, not mean they will though) that they will give that player more of an opportunity to succeed. Of course, there are countless examples to prove the contrary to this but, I will still use it as part of how I view a players upside when I am doing my rookie drafts in May.

[Jfever]

EXACTLY. I know I personally need to stop pretending I can predict what a situation will be next year. So going off of "situation" is foolhardy. But draft capital is quite telling. It isn't EVERYTHING, but it is something for sure.

Especially when teams move up and give up future picks to draft their guy (as was the case with Kamara and Hunt).

I think this is recency bias. I don't have the list on me but I thought we had this discussion a few years ago where the guys that were traded up for had a terrible track record.

Here's one - C Patterson. Yuck.

[Jason3123]

I am really hoping for Ridley to go to Green Bay because everyone who has hated him will be pivoting. And I think he will start climbing into the top 3/4.

[The Red Rooster]

Where do people see the ideal landing spot for Christian Kirk being? I dont know a ton about him but the more I read about him, the more I like him.

[Jason3123]

Where do people see the ideal landing spot for Christian Kirk being? I dont know a ton about him but the more I read about him, the more I like him.

Cowboys, Dolphins, Saints would all be fantastic IMO. Colts, Niners would be solid too.