How do you guys value startup draft picks?

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UATahoe
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How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby UATahoe » Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:34 pm

Getting ready for my first startup and was curious on how you guys determine pick value and how often you guys try to make pick trades during a startup?
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

oppy
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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby oppy » Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:38 pm

The easiest way to look at it is to look at what players are available at those picks and if you think that trade would be fair value.

Though that's easier said than done.

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby UATahoe » Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:41 pm

Lol but that would be looking into the future to see what those picks had available. Seems to be something that could really put you in a bad spot if you don't know what you are doing.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby moishetreats » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:30 pm

I'd start with creating tiers for players. If you can drop down within a tier or trade up to another tier without dropping too far later on, then that's worth considering.

I also look at targeted players that I think will be drafted far too late. Say that I think that Player X is a top-10 WR, but almost all rankings having him around WR18. Once my pick comes up and 9 WRs are off the board, then I'll be drafting the player that I like if I have the pick. But, I'm often willing to gamble that I can drop down to where, say, WR13-15 would be picked, still get my guy, and get value elsewhere.

If you're newer to these leagues, then I usually suggest NOT trading unless it's a slam-dunk. Or post on this forum specific offers to get some insight.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby BigBawseRoss » Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:20 am

my only advice is always be willing to trade down, don't get too eager to move up.

also if you let us know what the league set up is im sure you can get a few links posted to see how other peoples start ups went, so you know what to expect (or a guide of where people go generally at least)
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram

2024 picks
1,3,4,5,5,6,7 (all late mostly)

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Fields, Dak
Ford,Mixon, Javonte, Mostert, Chubb, Spears
Hopkins, Evans, g Wilson Mingo, shaheed, Jamo
Kelce,McBride, Chig,


1,2,3,3,5

team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Josh Allen, A Rich, Foles, Rudolph
Bijan, Charbs, Spears, Ebner
J Williams, G Wilson, C Watson, Flowers, J Addison, Tillman
Kincaid, Kolar, Ruckert, Fergeson

Kenny Clark, josh allen, jaelen phillips, felix a-u and a bunch of fluff and rookie fliers at idp

UATahoe
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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby UATahoe » Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:42 am

That would be great. The league is a basic PPR league, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, D/ST, and K. D finitely would be inter step in seeing any prior data I could comb through just to see how everything went.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby ascherb » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:08 pm

Trade down. Trade down. Trade down.

Especially early. In startups, I ALWAYS try to move my first rounder to move down. The more picks I have in the Top 40ish, the better.
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UATahoe
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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby UATahoe » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:08 am

So is trading a 2nd pick for somebody else’s 3rd and 4th consider about right or crazy lopsided one way or the other?
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby GoodellsPaycheck » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:11 am

UATahoe wrote: Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:08 am So is trading a 2nd pick for somebody else’s 3rd and 4th consider about right or crazy lopsided one way or the other?
I turned down a trade offer of my 2nd and 3rd rounder for a late 1st...

Hopkins ended up getting drafted 16th (16 man league), and Gurley go drafted in the early 2nd...so yea I lost that one lol

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby hockeyBjj » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:22 am

UATahoe wrote: Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:08 am So is trading a 2nd pick for somebody else’s 3rd and 4th consider about right or crazy lopsided one way or the other?
Look at a general ADP guide of players and see about who would be taken at the 2nd round pick, and who would go the 3rd and 4th round. Would you take the 2 side of the 2 for 1 deal?

Just looking at DLFs, a 3 spread at 2.6 is Fournette, Cooks, M Gordon

3.6 is Ty Hilton, Corey Davis, Jarvis Landry

4.6 Derrick Henry, Russel Wilson, Sammy Watkins

So would you rather have the upper line, or a guy each from the bottom two? Doesn't mean those are the people you'll specifically get, but gives a better feeling to have faces and names there
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby UATahoe » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:27 am

I think one thing that really stands out is that trading down would bolster a strong WR roster but would more than likely lean you towards a zero rb type roster or at least a significantly weakened RB roster. At least that’s how it appears on paper and given the recent run on RB’s it seems they dry up quick. Definitely interesting scenarios.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby jordanzs » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:28 pm

This is easy.

Find a reputable startup draft or a few of them.

Look at where players were drafted.

Then when you are working trades, think of the players that were picked at the various spots. Just pretend that you’re trading players and not picks.

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby jordanzs » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:31 pm

A common trade that I’ve been a part of, on both sides of the equation is:

Swap picks in rounds 1,2, 4

Or 2,3,5.

Or 3,4,6.

You see the pattern, right?

Look at a snake draft and you’ll see how it benefits the owner who moves back. But also isn’t an arm and a leg to pay for the owner who moves up.

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby skinfanjon » Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:01 pm

I'm in the midst of prepping for a very expensive startup in an incredibly active league. I'd estimate we've had no less than 50 completed trades thus far and the draft hasn't even started.

This tool has been invaluable to me: http://www.dynastyfftools.com/tools/calculator

Make sure you turn on the startup selections. I've spent a TON of time fine tuning my draft board and then making moves to position myself around those players. It definitely depends on the overall activity of your league as to how much progress you can make, but I would advise spending time formulating a strategy and then executing it. My experience has been it's a whole lot easier to trade down than up and you'll need to be willing to lose a deal (based on that calculator) to get higher picks. BUT, I think it's going to be even costlier on the clock, so better to get them now and then start trading down if your guys come off the board.

Also, the adp on this page was the best I've found (and believe me, I've scoured): http://mizelle.net/mfl/2018/

Lastly, I joined a cheap startup for market research and these were the draft results: http://myffpc.com/DraftBoard.aspx?ltuid ... A3B98ED1EF

It's behind a paywall, but if you take a few seconds to register to the site, you can view it. Basically RBs went much faster than the ADP I linked above indicates.

I'm happy to share all of this, BUT HERE'S MY REQUEST:

Please post the results of some other startups!!! Doesn't matter who posts them but please, ADD SOME DATA! I say this because I posted all of this on another site and no one contributed. Someone...anyone...please add data.

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Re: How do you guys value startup draft picks?

Postby skinfanjon » Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:06 pm

One additional thought...use the calculator to judge the value, but the goal should be to get picks that match your personal draft board. If you don't have a board, you are doing it wrong. The calculator should be used as a gauge to keep you in check (and spot extra value), but the most important thing is executing the strategy your draft board leads you too.


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