Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:57 am

I think one of the biggest problems about fantasy owners fixating on YPC is that at the end of the day - we just want fantasy points which comes from yards.

We do not care if an RB consistently gets 1-3 yards if he breaks off a huge run every once and a while. However, I am sure that real life NFL teams would rather have a guy that gets 3-4 consistently without the big runs. The NFL is a game of field positions and first downs, the latter helps you more with that.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ascherb » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:17 pm

If the Chargers don't draft someone to step into more of a pass catching role and Gordon still gets 85 targets, I don't care what his ypc is.

I think a part of this whole thing is that coming out of college, we were all so sure a 6-1 RB who weighs less than 210 pounds certainly couldn't handle a full 3-down load. And that's what Gordon has done that for the most part. But I think we're still waiting for the Chargers to add a back to split time with Gordon, and because of that, we find it hard to get excited about him.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:28 am

I think after mulling it over a bit that gordon's biggest flaw and the reason why many dynasty managers are so low is he isn't JC superstar and never was going to be as jamaal charles is one of those guys that very very few can compare to in the first place . All the alleged experts knocked him for not being a receiving back coming out but they were looking at # and not skills now after 140+ catches in 3 years people find that his YPC is too low and again he sucks ?
I think rather than a pass catching back the chargers need to find a bruiser type and have gordon be the 2 and half down back- let a josh adams or jarvion franklin type back handle the third and 1 or goal line stuff and two things happen
1) it hurts his td upside but his YPC & efficiency go up
2) it lengthens his longevity by saving some wear and tear on a dude not much over 200 lbs. Perhaps he gets a bit more explosive without the grinding of short yardage carries.

I only own 1 share but am quite comfortable with him as my rb1 on that team and I think he is an absolute bargain in startups or redraft leagues this year currently at 20th on the DLF ADP chart . If you take him in the 2nd after grabbing a primo wr or he is your rb 2 after picking another rb in round one you will find yourself in damned good shape when the seasons kicks off.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:34 pm

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ch ... vin-gordon

Probably not a surprise to anyone but Gordons 5th year option to be picked up.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:37 am

Not a shocker. There is really not that much to NOT like about him when you dive into it. That is exactly why each and every single time I see the YPC BS getting brought up and the over use and mis understanding of statistical jargon getting thrown around, I usually chirp in.

I'll just keep it simple here this morning; M.Gordon is good at his job / as in, he is good at what he is asked to do considering the circumstances involved. The Chargers picking up his option I think was a foregone conclusion. They'd have been absolutely nuts not to do so.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby bucsrule » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:59 am

A running back who flirts with 300 points is okay for me. He is on a squad that led me to a title last year.
Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins
Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, CJ Anderson, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, Austin Ekelar, John Kelly
DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Julian Edleman, Geronimo Allison, Chris Godwin, Carlos Henderson, Malcolm Mitchell, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Reynolds, Demarcus Robinson
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am

JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Penny, Lynch, Conner, Foreman
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
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QB: Dak, Mahomes
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WR: Beckham, Thielen, GTate, M Williams, Decker, Enunwa
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:51 am

Arbitrary cutt-offs at 150 carries just to keep it easy.... not a good start.

But Ok, I'll take the bait and bite. I don't think I emphasize it "Far too little" at all. I completely and fully understand where it comes from, what it means, and what variables go into a good and a poor YPC numbers. Although I do appreciate some of your points in what you shared above, to be clear, I think I've made it quite clear, that it (YPC), is a tool to be used, not over used. It is NOT a statistic that has a direct correlation to ability or skill level. It just isn't. It much more so has a correlation on Offensive line scheme, offensive line health, level of Qb play, TE blocking ability, schedule, down and distance, game script, health of offensive contributing players, Wr ability to block, etc, etc, etc. NEVER said it was to be ignored. Not one single time have I ever hinted toward people ignoring YPC. I simply think it is FAR overused in fantasy circles as some way to measure rb ability.

That just isn't reality.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:58 am

Vcize wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am
JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. :shock: :shock: :shock: It is NOT the be all / end all predictive tool like some like to insinuate that it is. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.
* Drastic over simplification here. Plus some completely arbitrary numbers injected as cut off points. Also, it ignores the short rb career trajectory, as well as offensive scheme, coaching changes, down and distance, etc.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.
* Prob don't have to elaborate as to why the easiest isn't the best method...

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.
* agree here ^

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).
* to this one, I'll just say it is better in my opinion to work smarter, not harder...

* without doing the math.... Do ALL the math you want. That means NOTHING if you don't take all situations into context. It just doesnt. If you are sensitive to someone calling out BS in reference to how YPC is used, I'm sorry you are sensitive, I'm not sorry for the rational ideas and explanations that I throw at the wall. I have yet to have someone "throw it in my face to the extent that a valid point has been made that somehow gives the meaning to YPC that some think it possesses".

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
Maybe you are right and they do bring someone in to add depth to their rb corp. Or, maybe they solidify their run blocking by bringing in a guard on day one or day two, or they alter their play calling, any of which could have a positive effect on the ypc data point, all the while - M.Gordon didn't just magically get or attain more running ability, or somehow morph into a "Better runner" - which the improved YPC would somehow make it seem like. :nono: :crazy:
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Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby bsp27 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:42 pm

JFever wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:58 am
Vcize wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am
JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. :shock: :shock: :shock: It is NOT the be all / end all predictive tool like some like to insinuate that it is. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.
* Drastic over simplification here. Plus some completely arbitrary numbers injected as cut off points. Also, it ignores the short rb career trajectory, as well as offensive scheme, coaching changes, down and distance, etc.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.
* Prob don't have to elaborate as to why the easiest isn't the best method...

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.
* agree here ^

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).
* to this one, I'll just say it is better in my opinion to work smarter, not harder...

* without doing the math.... Do ALL the math you want. That means NOTHING if you don't take all situations into context. It just doesnt. If you are sensitive to someone calling out BS in reference to how YPC is used, I'm sorry you are sensitive, I'm not sorry for the rational ideas and explanations that I throw at the wall. I have yet to have someone "throw it in my face to the extent that a valid point has been made that somehow gives the meaning to YPC that some think it possesses".

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
Maybe you are right and they do bring someone in to add depth to their rb corp. Or, maybe they solidify their run blocking by bringing in a guard on day one or day two, or they alter their play calling, any of which could have a positive effect on the ypc data point, all the while - M.Gordon didn't just magically get or attain more running ability, or somehow morph into a "Better runner" - which the improved YPC would somehow make it seem like. :nono: :crazy:
The problem with his abysmal ypc is that it potentially threatens his future workload. An NFL team will not continue to give a player 20+ carries a game if he is extremely inefficient with those carries. There were already rumors of the Chargers looking to draft an rb high in the draft to limit Gordon's workload. League bottom ypc matters because his team won't continue to feed him, as long as they find a suitable complement to him in the backfield.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Darnold, Rosen
Rb: Henry, Abdullah, Riddick, White, Justin Jackson
Wr: Diggs, Baldwin, D-Jax, Godwin, Paul Richardson, Tre'Quan Smith, J'Mon Moore, Taywan Taylor, Snead, Deon Cain
Te: Gesicki, Clay, Hurst

4 19 1st's, 2 19 2nd's, 1 19 3rd, 1 19 5th

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Te: David Njoku, Charles Clay, Adam Shaheen, Mark Andrews,

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Krypto_King » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:49 pm

He is a young, athletic back who relies on volume. His team/coach has said they want to form a committee. What you do with that information is up to you.

If you like numbers, https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/melvin-gordon/
breakaway run rate 28th
catch rate 36th
drops 2nd
fantasy points per opp 62nd
YPC vs base front 50th (55% of carries)

I think he is a hold/sell for a good offer but just be ready for a value dip if they add semi-legit competition

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:54 pm

This thread is still going?
This is literally the exact same discussion as the beginning...

I came here expecting to see something relevant, only to be disappointed.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby mullmania » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:15 pm

A Hopkins-Gordon-1.08 for 1.01-Amari Cooper-OJ Howard went down.

Curious to look back on that one in a year
Last edited by mullmania on Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:19 pm

It feels like some people think the Chargers coaches don't watch game film. Instead, they just all huddle around a laptop like those clowns in "Draft Day", looking at Melvin Gordon's career stats tab on NFL.com - "Well golly, Burt. You realize Melvin hasn't been averaging 4 yards each time he runs? Shoot darn, let's replace him!"
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ, Ford
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E, McNichols
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, JMatt, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Swaim
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Goodson
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Rosenbluu » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:59 pm

mullmania wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:15 pm
A Hopkins-Gordon-1.08 for 1.01-Amari Cooper-OJ Howard went down.

Curious to look back on that one in a year
Nuk side and its not really close.
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QB: Winston/Watson/Foles/Cardale/JT Barret(OSU)
RB: Howard/Coleman/Cohen/Conner/Sproles
WR: Hill/Diggs/Kupp/MWilliams/Kelvin/Paul Richardson/Tavon/Floyd/(Washington,Ridley, Cain)
TE: Engram/Green/Amaro/Escobar

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QB/2RB/3WR/TE/2 Flex
QB: Watson/Matty
RB: MG3/Drake/Murray/Gore/Gio/Eckler
WR:Evans/Cooks/TY/Baldwin/Kupp/White/Caroo/Garcon
TE: Rudolph/Njoku/Butt/Kroft

Gridiron Greats 12 Team 2QB PPR
2QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3Flex/1(RB/TE)Flex
QB: JimmyG/Mahomes/Brady
RB: Sony/RoJo/Tevin/Lynch/Powell/Gio
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