Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby mullmania » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:37 pm

I was going to post that Forte had better receiving averages early in his career but Gordon beats him there.

I don't think Gordon is a good as his stats nor as bad as some want to think.

He's kind of like a souped up Lamar Miller to me who plays on a great offense.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:44 pm

Talk to you about Melvin Gordon. OK.

One of the best college producers in history, had well above average scores in his athletic testing. Struggled his rookie year, but came back strong his sophomore season and his 3rd year with workhorse like production behind a below average offensive line. Silenced critics about his lack of receiving production/skills in college with 99 reception over the last 2 seasons. Hard worker, good teammate, and plays in an above average offense, that has finally put some stock into building the interior OL. This season he should have the opportunity to be much more efficient with his carries.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:45 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:06 pm
I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol
This was already debunked a little while back, though with regards to "short yardage carries" instead of red zone carries (I think short yardage carries are far more relevant).

There was a podcast where someone (maybe even a DLF staffer, I can't recall) asserted what Melvin Gordon's YPC would have been if you removed all his carries inside the 5 and all his carries on 3rd/4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go. He made it out to be a big deal. But he didn't provide any context by comparing how much it changed his YPC relative to other RBs. As it turned out, when you ran the same algorithm on other RBs in the league the amount it affected Gordon's YPC ended up being almost exactly average compared to how it affected other back's YPC.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby maxhyde » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:47 pm

mullmania wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:37 pm
I was going to post that Forte had better receiving averages early in his career but Gordon beats him there.

I don't think Gordon is a good as his stats nor as bad as some want to think.

He's kind of like a souped up Lamar Miller to me who plays on a great offense.
Uh part of the reason the offense is good is because Gordon is converting 1st downs and scoring TD's. SD had many years of Rivers throwing the ball around the yard and mediocre seasons. Anyway time will tell but not many options for a RB1 at his reasonable cost...I mean I bet in most of my leagues I could swap a 1.03/4 type pick for him...the hate is real

Miller is kinda the opposite. He was pretty efficient in MIA then moved on to HOU and has been pretty disappointing to be generous
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:03 pm

Vcize wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:45 pm
Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:06 pm
I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol
This was already debunked a little while back, though with regards to "short yardage carries" instead of red zone carries (I think short yardage carries are far more relevant).

There was a podcast where someone (maybe even a DLF staffer, I can't recall) asserted what Melvin Gordon's YPC would have been if you removed all his carries inside the 5 and all his carries on 3rd/4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go. He made it out to be a big deal. But he didn't provide any context by comparing how much it changed his YPC relative to other RBs. As it turned out, when you ran the same algorithm on other RBs in the league the amount it affected Gordon's YPC ended up being almost exactly average compared to how it affected other back's YPC.
I was going to post the same thing. I remember the argument bring put forward, and later debunked, just fuzzy on source and details.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:13 pm

I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:15 pm

(Sung like the old Sunday school song)

"Melvin Gordon sucks I know, yards per carry tells me so"
T1
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MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
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JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E, Warren, McNichols, Darkwa
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:41 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:13 pm
I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.
It goes further, too. It's the same with a guy like Fournette. How many games last year did the just hand the ball to him in the 4th quarter with a ten point lead, where everybody and their grandmother knows they are going to run, to try and kill the clock and hold the lead. There were games where Fournette's YPC were atrocious because of this, and his overall YPC on the year were 3.9, but there were so many sitational carries where 3-4 yards were all that was needed, and that's what he got. You can't say Fournette wasn't good because of his YPC. Getting those 10 yards on 3 straight carries and resetting the downs when all 11 defenders know exactly who's getting the ball may show up poorly in the box score, but is a tremendous value to his team, and the will continue to give him the ball to tough out those difficult yards in the 4th at the expense of his YPC. 2nd and 7 isn't a short yardage situation, but in the 4th quarter with a lead, the situation gives the defense license to stack the box and make gaining even a few yard extremely difficult compared to a 2nd and 7 in the first quarter.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:54 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:13 pm
I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.
I just looked and you are correct that the redzone as a whole, not just goal to go situations does negatively impact a player's YPC. I was surprised, but YPC did decrease between the 10-20 yard line as well.

As to how the logic works, part of it may be that the study was done early this year, so there have been more games played since then (it was referencing mostly the 2016 seasons, which was the most recent at the time). Part of it is also probably that all starting RBs have a lot of carries in this situation and having 10-15 more carries in them just doesn't have the impact against 250 carries that you think it might. And of course, the obvious, which is that MG's non-RZ YPC was already lower than the other guys, so naturally a collection of low YPC runs is going to have less negative impact on his YPC. A 2 yard run hurts a guy who averaged 6ypc in other scenarios a lot more than it hurts a guy only averaged 4ypc in other scenarios.

Regardless, looking specifically at what you're referencing and looking only at RZ carries in 2017, it still doesn't seem to have the impact you are implying (hoping?).

If you remove all of MG's redzone carries, his YPC improves by only 0.3. Which just as referenced before, looks pretty much right on the average. Here's how the top fantasy back's YPC changes if you remove all of their RZ carries from last year (IE you would read this as Gurley's YPC would be 0.6 higher if you remove all of his redzone carries).

Gurley: +0.6
Ingram: +0.5
Freeman: +0.5
Ajayi: +0.4
Kamara: +0.4
Hyde: +0.4
McCoy: +0.3
Gordon: +0.3
Bell: +0.3
Hunt: +0.3
Fournette: +0.2
Elliott: +0.2
Lewis: +0.2
Howard: -0.2

I got tired of doing that math at that point but as you can see, MG isn't some outlier in terms of how much his RZ carries impacted his YPC.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am

I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:13 am

JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
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ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Swaim
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:29 am

Well, yes and no Lucky. For some things and some statistics one can make future predictions. But, the thing is, all stats are not created equal. YPC is just way to interconnected and interdependent on so many other variables that it lessons it's actual meaning. When a fantasy owner uses ADP as their primary tool for judging trade value it is also a mistake. Bottom line is some stats are very telling of ability, lack of ability, ball security, etc. Some aren't. It is on you to be able to tell the difference. It grinds my gears when we go on and on about how YPC is telling about a players ability. Perhaps in a very minor way it is. But the other variables must then be mentioned, considered, and weighed. The plays that are called, the opponents, the score, the defensive play called, the health of the defense, the weather, the players that are in the game at the time the play is called, field position, down and distance. I mean.... not all things are as simple as just YARDS PER CARRY. YPC for one rb will have come to exist because of a multitude of factors that do not at all apply to another rb.

In football we take very small sample sizes of data to draw conclusions from. Baseball plays 162 regular season games, football has 1/10 of that. We extrapolate a lot and because of that we loose validity. With small sample sizes of data we should be careful when we label or draw conclusions.

The only things they might have in common is that they are rb that are getting hand-offs in an NFL game. How do otherwise intelligent folks not understand this concept? I'm legitimately curious.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:46 am

JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby JFever » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:57 am

Well, I wasn't trying to twist your words. The 2nd / 3rd round of a start up thing - well, that's all good. I'm indifferent there. Its the way that you and others use YPC that gets too me. Too funny.... the off topic thread you speak of is a lot of fun. I do enjoy that type of discussion. I, in a way, feel that thread topics like that on are a moral duty of mine. I appreciate truth to a high degree. I'll stand up for it when needed. This one is a bit different as it is more about statistics and understanding where they come from. I don't find it confusing or difficult in anyway. If you continue to miss use or weigh YPC too heavily, I will simply continue to remind you that it doesn't mean what you think it means. By all means, you can continue to do what you like, but you certainly open yourself and your rational up to criticism. Kind of like the Off topic forum. If you make crazy claims of absolutes - you damn well better have the evidence to back your crazy claims up. See, it works here too.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Goddard » Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:01 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:46 am
JFever wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am
I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."
Aren't you being a little misleading though? You made it sound like Gordon was going to be out of the league similar to guys like Stacy and Richardson due to his poor ypc, and then you say you'd be fine taking him in the 3rd instead of the 2nd?


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