Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

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Jason3123
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:48 pm

He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ericanadian » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:50 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:48 pm
He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.
Beat me there. Was just about to point that out.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:04 pm

Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:16 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:09 pm
I have to ask - why the arbitrary focus on 4.0YPC? It's not that much different from 3.9YPC; you are literally talking about the difference of 1 yard every 10 carries.

And if you think his coaches have soured on him; read this.
4.0 is just an easy number to look at. Even 4.0 isn't good, though. I want 4.5+ if I'm going to truly invest in a guy.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:18 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:04 pm
Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.
What is this based off of?
Bye Every Week (14 team PPR, 1QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE)
QB: Rodgers, Luck, Winston
RB: Bell, Lacy, Anderson, Ingram, Spiller, Miller
WR: Brown, Julio, DT, Dez, Evans, Jordy, Perriman, Randle, Tampa Mike
TE: Graham, Gronk

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:22 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:04 pm
Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.
What is this based off of?
Fantasy rankings.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:31 pm

Additionally,

the list of RB's with >2,500 rushing yards, >1,000 receiving yards through their first 3 seasons since 1999 sorted by rush yards:

1. Chris Johnson
2. LaDanian Tomlinson
3. Edgerrin James
4. Frank Gore
5. Todd Gurley
6. Steven Jackson
7. Matt Forte
8. Domanick Williams
9. Ricky Williams
10. Deuce McCallister
11. Arian Foster
12. LeSean McCoy
13. Ray Rice
14. Jamaal Charles
15. Le'Veon Bell
16. Melvin Gordon
17. Maurice Jones-Drew

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:45 pm

Quite the list, that's for sure..
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:57 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:48 pm
He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.
Well the obvious difference is that Forte increased his YPC all the way up to 4.5 in his 3rd year, while Gordon languished away at the same 3.9 without really showing any improvement in his 3rd year.

The further we go into the career the worse things get. There are a good handful of guys that had one sub-4ypc season and then turned it around and held onto the job long-term, though the percentages still aren't exactly good even when talking about one year. There are a small handful of guys that had multiple sub-4ypc seasons and then turned it around and held on to the job long-term, though at this point the odds are getting pretty long. There are virtually no guys that got significant carries for 3 years at sub-4ypc and were still their team's starter long-term.

I'm willing to play long odds, but not at short prices. It's certainly possible that Gordon improves his YPC by almost a full yard suddenly like Forte did, but it seems like a pretty low percentage play for a guy being valued relatively high.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:03 pm

I think another thing you have to consider is the injuries that Gordon dealt with all year - and instead of sitting out, he opted to play through them which no doubt limited him some (by how much, no one can really say though).

I mean, he was literally listed with an injury to his shoulder, foot, knee and ankle at different points throughout the year.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:26 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:22 pm
dynastyninja wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:04 pm
Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.
What is this based off of?
Fantasy rankings.
As in points per game or something else?
Bye Every Week (14 team PPR, 1QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE)
QB: Rodgers, Luck, Winston
RB: Bell, Lacy, Anderson, Ingram, Spiller, Miller
WR: Brown, Julio, DT, Dez, Evans, Jordy, Perriman, Randle, Tampa Mike
TE: Graham, Gronk

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:29 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:31 pm
Additionally,

the list of RB's with >2,500 rushing yards, >1,000 receiving yards through their first 3 seasons since 1999 sorted by rush yards:

1. Chris Johnson
2. LaDanian Tomlinson
3. Edgerrin James
4. Frank Gore
5. Todd Gurley
6. Steven Jackson
7. Matt Forte
8. Domanick Williams
9. Ricky Williams
10. Deuce McCallister
11. Arian Foster
12. LeSean McCoy
13. Ray Rice
14. Jamaal Charles
15. Le'Veon Bell
16. Melvin Gordon
17. Maurice Jones-Drew
I'd venture to guess that his efficiency has been lower than almost everyone on that list.

I like the guy and can see his talent. I would own him in certain circumstances, but I can't see how you aren't concerned that he hasn't been able to crack 4 yards per carry (which is generally the baseline for even an average running back) in any of his first three seasons.
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RB: Bell, Lacy, Anderson, Ingram, Spiller, Miller
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:52 pm

In a 12 team startup, I would be comfortable with Gordon as my 3rd round pick. His current ADP of 20 puts him as a 2nd rounder, which is too risky for me.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:06 pm

I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Goddard » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:19 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:06 pm
I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol
You can also add that he had 80 total first downs, which was third most in the NFL. Obviously not all 80 of those first downs came on short yardage plays, but I'd assume a lot of them were situations where he just needed to gain 1 or 2 yards to keep the drive going...which would also lead to a drop in his ypc.


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