1.05 Who Do You Got?

[jcc6fd]

Okay so this is a little bit selfish since I own the 1.05 in my main league, but I think it's a common enough scenario that others could benefit. Here are the factors at play:
1. You're picking 5th overall
2. The top four Rbs (Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michael) are all off the board
3. You are NOT playing in a superflex or 2Qb league (i.e. you can only start 1 QB).
4. Your biggest need is RB, but you're not going to reach at a position of need if there's an obviously better player available

That last factor is key and really the overall question. Is there a player at number 5 overall that is a must draft regardless of position, or is there a muddled tier of 4-5 guys that means you can draft for need?

With that said here are the options as I see them:
1. You go with the best RB available and draft either Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny. But which one? Penny has the combine measurables and great college production, but some question his level of competition and more importantly his ability to play on 3rd downs. Jones was billed as an "explosive and versatile playmaker," but his metrics don't exactly prove that. Additionally (and I believe this isn't behind the paywall) DLF has Jones as not only their 5th overall RB, but their fifth overall rookie.

2. You can grab whoever you think the best WR is in the draft. Sutton and Moore seem like the leading candidates. Personally I think Moore (minus size) looks like the better shot at fantasy production, but neither seem like they have the floor or ceiling that makes you think you have to take them at 1.05. Obviously Ridley is a candidate for some, but I know the Ridley thread discusses his merits, or lack-there-of, in ad nauseum.

3. A dark horse option is to take the best QB (or whoever you think is the best). I don't like this option (as I'll explain below), but there's reason to think that one or more of the QBs in this draft will return more fantasy value than anyone available at 1.05 or later.

4. You trade the pick. Either moving down for multiple picks or for a another player. I like this option more than number 3 because if you want to pick a QB you should still have options in the late first early 2nd, and even if you just take the last of the top 3-4 QBs available it's really just a crap shoot and you pick up whatever extra value you get in an additional pick(s). This would be preferable per the factors above if either Jones or Penny aren't worth the 1.05 or the WRs aren't a good value there.

So there you have it. I'll start by weighing in and say that I am leaning toward taking Ronald Jones. His size, and measurables give me concerns, but if he lands in a decent situation he could pay immediate dividends. I also see him as the highest ceiling RB left available and some analysts have him ranked inside their top 4 RBs (I don't) so I'm trying to respect the consensus and my team's needs.

[whodunnit]

I would feel comfortable taking a RB there, (I have Freeman ahead of Penny, Michel and RoJo) but I would also feel good getting Sutton. I'd either trade back a few spots or go with your favorite RB.

[AussieMate]

3 votes for Penny, when did he rise above Sutton? I'd take Sutton here as the highest rated wr in the draft.

[jaykay22]

If I were you, I'd ideally like to trade back. Does the 1.08 owner have any desire to give me 1.08 + 2.08 for the 1.05 alone, or for my 1.05 + 3.05? If you can swing that, at 1.08 you should be able to get one of Jones, Penny, or Freeman (between 1.05-1.07 someone will grab a WR for sure), and now you have an extra second to take another shot at a later rookie.

Alternatively, if you can't swing a trade, I'd personally lean towards the RB with the (seemingly) best situation between Penny, RoJo and Freeman.

[Vcize]

It would be Rojo for me right now, but the nfl draft will change things. My guess is one of those next tier guys will land in a good enough spot to separate and be a strong pick at 1.05.

[dynastyninja]

I've come around to Penny, but I would still probably go Jones here. That, or the receiver with the best combination of situation and talent.

[Rosenbluu]

Landing spot determines who I would go with at 1.05, this whole tier is one big cluster. Right now give me DJ

[kadun2]

My pick is Rojo. Seems like not that long ago he was considered at the 3rd pick, with comparisons to Jamaal Charles. He had the hammy problem and then runs a little slower 40 than most expected. I think it will depend on landing spot but I am considering Jones at 1.3 along with Chubb and Michel.

[jcc6fd]

The Jones love makes sense to me from a historical standpoint, I.e. people have thought highly of him for a while.

For those who like Penny, is the reason he’s risen simply a size/speed thing due to his combine metrics?

[FantasyFreak]

The Jones love makes sense to me from a historical standpoint, I.e. people have thought highly of him for a while.

For those who like Penny, is the reason he’s risen simply a size/speed thing due to his combine metrics?

His college production as well. He was a special teams nightmare, too. Returned a ton of kicks/punts for TD's. Showed good long speed on those returns, and with a 40 time that was a hair faster than Zeke's, that tells me he has the juice to break some long runs at the NFL level. Also showed well at the Senior Bowl. I don't have him at 1.05, though.

[Jason3123]

Christian Kirk, too easy.

[keebs3]

I went Sutton here. I have the 1.05 and swayed to a WR because I also happen to have the 1.01. But, that probably wouldn't have changed my vote if it were my only pick.
There is no clear winner here (as the poll results to date, seem) so currently I've been shopping the pick. If I can't find a deal I'll probably try and move back, as you suggested, when I'm on the clock.
However, I do agree that after the NFL draft we might get a clear pick here at 5. If I had to choose now, I'd stick with Sutton as the safest bet.

[ImaRounder]

Trade. 1.04-1.08 I'd trade back. grab Kirk, Freeman or maybe sutton will still be there.

[Goddard]

If you need RB help, trade the pick for a proven RB instead of drafting for one, even if it means having to add a little more. If you use the pick, I'm going to assume the top WR in the draft (whoever that may be) will be better value than the 5th best RB.

[kamihamster]

I don't think there's a tier break between the best WR in the draft versus the RBs the likes of Penny, Freeman, Kelly, and Johnson. (Rojo is on my DND list). But since I see it as a tier of 4 RBs and 6 WRs, I'd explore trading down so that you could pick up a chance for two of those guys.