Brandin Cooks - What's Not To Love?

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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:47 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:38 pm "Cooks and QB Jared Goff have already been throwing together this offseason"

Wouldn't it be more productive for Goff to throw to Cooks? Not sure how Cooks throwing alongside Goff helps their chemistry. :wink:
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby ericanadian » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:29 am

Not sure why people keep pushing the narrative that Brady is bad at the deep ball. The league average on throws with a depth of target of 20+ was 25.4%. Brady hit 32.9%. Sure, he misses some deep balls. Pretty much every QB does, but he hits on them at a greater rate than most.

Goff hits 32.6% on deep throws, which is pretty good. My main concern is how little he goes deep. The team is already run heavy and he only throws deep roughly 9% of the time (which is below league average). Brady goes deep on roughly 12.5% of his throws, as a comparitor. When you combine this with his higher volume of passing, it means 30 (70% more) extra deep shots from Brady compared to Goff. For a guy like Cooks, that is a big deal. Say he gets 50% (he pulled in just under 50% of the deep shots in New England while Sammy only got about a third in LA, so this could be even uglier) of those and catches a third of that fifty percent. That's five extra catches for a minimum of twenty yards each.

Can Goff take significant strides forward and close that gap in a year or two? Sure, I just don't believe it's probable and I don't see why McVay would even want to move that direction when the offense was so effective in 2017. Yes, they got exposed to some degree in the playoffs, but he's probably thinking more tweaks than overhaul.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:32 am

ericanadian wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:29 am Not sure why people keep pushing the narrative that Brady is bad at the deep ball. The league average on throws with a depth of target of 20+ was 25.4%. Brady hit 32.9%. Sure, he misses some deep balls. Pretty much every QB does, but he hits on them at a greater rate than most.

Goff hits 32.6% on deep throws, which is pretty good. My main concern is how little he goes deep. The team is already run heavy and he only throws deep roughly 9% of the time (which is below league average). Brady goes deep on roughly 12.5% of his throws, as a comparitor. When you combine this with his higher volume of passing, it means 30 (70% more) extra deep shots from Brady compared to Goff. For a guy like Cooks, that is a big deal. Say he gets 50% (he pulled in just under 50% of the deep shots in New England while Sammy only got about a third in LA, so this could be even uglier) of those and catches a third of that fifty percent. That's five extra catches for a minimum of twenty yards each.

Can Goff take significant strides forward and close that gap in a year or two? Sure, I just don't believe it's probable and I don't see why McVay would even want to move that direction when the offense was so effective in 2017. Yes, they got exposed to some degree in the playoffs, but he's probably thinking more tweaks than overhaul.
Very nice. I really haven't looked into it much because I'm not worried about Cooks overall, but certainly good info to show that his ceiling may be lower in LAR.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby btv802 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:37 am

I'm not one of the people excited about pairing Cooks with Goff. Goff is overrated and the Rams offensive scheme masks his weakness well.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby bigchiefbc » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:36 am

ericanadian wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:29 am Not sure why people keep pushing the narrative that Brady is bad at the deep ball. The league average on throws with a depth of target of 20+ was 25.4%. Brady hit 32.9%. Sure, he misses some deep balls. Pretty much every QB does, but he hits on them at a greater rate than most.

Goff hits 32.6% on deep throws, which is pretty good. My main concern is how little he goes deep. The team is already run heavy and he only throws deep roughly 9% of the time (which is below league average). Brady goes deep on roughly 12.5% of his throws, as a comparitor. When you combine this with his higher volume of passing, it means 30 (70% more) extra deep shots from Brady compared to Goff. For a guy like Cooks, that is a big deal. Say he gets 50% (he pulled in just under 50% of the deep shots in New England while Sammy only got about a third in LA, so this could be even uglier) of those and catches a third of that fifty percent. That's five extra catches for a minimum of twenty yards each.

Can Goff take significant strides forward and close that gap in a year or two? Sure, I just don't believe it's probable and I don't see why McVay would even want to move that direction when the offense was so effective in 2017. Yes, they got exposed to some degree in the playoffs, but he's probably thinking more tweaks than overhaul.
Excellent job pulling the numbers up. Reading through this thread, I kept thinking to myself two things: 1. Brady isn't as bad at the long ball as everyone seems to think, and 2. Goff isn't bad at the long ball, he just doesn't do it very often. I agree with the general consensus though that this is largely a lateral move, but Cooks was probably going to get less targets in NE this year assuming Edelman and Gronk can stay healthy (which is a big if, obviously)

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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:55 pm

ericanadian wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:29 am Not sure why people keep pushing the narrative that Brady is bad at the deep ball. The league average on throws with a depth of target of 20+ was 25.4%. Brady hit 32.9%. Sure, he misses some deep balls. Pretty much every QB does, but he hits on them at a greater rate than most.

Goff hits 32.6% on deep throws, which is pretty good. My main concern is how little he goes deep. The team is already run heavy and he only throws deep roughly 9% of the time (which is below league average). Brady goes deep on roughly 12.5% of his throws, as a comparitor. When you combine this with his higher volume of passing, it means 30 (70% more) extra deep shots from Brady compared to Goff. For a guy like Cooks, that is a big deal. Say he gets 50% (he pulled in just under 50% of the deep shots in New England while Sammy only got about a third in LA, so this could be even uglier) of those and catches a third of that fifty percent. That's five extra catches for a minimum of twenty yards each.

Can Goff take significant strides forward and close that gap in a year or two? Sure, I just don't believe it's probable and I don't see why McVay would even want to move that direction when the offense was so effective in 2017. Yes, they got exposed to some degree in the playoffs, but he's probably thinking more tweaks than overhaul.
Two factors at play here. Firstly how much of that was improved by Cooks (IE what was Brady's deep ball percentage the year before when he didn't have Cooks)?

And more importantly, 20 yards is a lot shorter than what most people are referring to when they think of the "deep balls" that Brady missed Cooks on last year. Is there a breakdown of this data with different yardage cut offs, like 30+ yards or 40+ yards? When people say that Brady underthrew Cooks badly on several wide open deep balls last year they're talking about 40 yard go routes, not 20 yard crossers.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby Phaded » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:00 pm

Most statistical breakdowns use 20 yards as the cut-off for "deep balls", I know that is what PFF refers to a deep ball as well - one of the most prominent sources of statistics. It may be difficult to find what you are looking for.

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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby ericanadian » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:37 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:55 pm
ericanadian wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:29 am Not sure why people keep pushing the narrative that Brady is bad at the deep ball. The league average on throws with a depth of target of 20+ was 25.4%. Brady hit 32.9%. Sure, he misses some deep balls. Pretty much every QB does, but he hits on them at a greater rate than most.

Goff hits 32.6% on deep throws, which is pretty good. My main concern is how little he goes deep. The team is already run heavy and he only throws deep roughly 9% of the time (which is below league average). Brady goes deep on roughly 12.5% of his throws, as a comparitor. When you combine this with his higher volume of passing, it means 30 (70% more) extra deep shots from Brady compared to Goff. For a guy like Cooks, that is a big deal. Say he gets 50% (he pulled in just under 50% of the deep shots in New England while Sammy only got about a third in LA, so this could be even uglier) of those and catches a third of that fifty percent. That's five extra catches for a minimum of twenty yards each.

Can Goff take significant strides forward and close that gap in a year or two? Sure, I just don't believe it's probable and I don't see why McVay would even want to move that direction when the offense was so effective in 2017. Yes, they got exposed to some degree in the playoffs, but he's probably thinking more tweaks than overhaul.
Two factors at play here. Firstly how much of that was improved by Cooks (IE what was Brady's deep ball percentage the year before when he didn't have Cooks)?

And more importantly, 20 yards is a lot shorter than what most people are referring to when they think of the "deep balls" that Brady missed Cooks on last year. Is there a breakdown of this data with different yardage cut offs, like 30+ yards or 40+ yards? When people say that Brady underthrew Cooks badly on several wide open deep balls last year they're talking about 40 yard go routes, not 20 yard crossers.
If you're looking at straight 20+ DoT, Brady lost efficiency from 2016 to 2017. He went from 37.8% completion rate to the 32.9% I had previously mentioned. The thing is that he threw deep way more with Cooks on the team and increased his volume of deep ball attempts by about 27 or 28. That could be good news for Goff/Cooks if Goff can increase his volume that much and only drop about 5% (would put him right around league average). Not sure it works that way though, plus we're always working in small sample sizes when you get to this level of detail. That's really what separates Football from Baseball in terms of the value of analytics.

On the 40+ DoT, the league average drops to 14.9%, so that should tell you right there that not a lot of guys are all that efficient that far out. Brady still comes in above average at 15.8% and was actually second in the league (19) in attempts at that range to Russell Wilson (21). Goff hit 42.9%, but that's only on seven throws, so take it for what it's worth.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby ericanadian » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:42 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:00 pm Most statistical breakdowns use 20 yards as the cut-off for "deep balls", I know that is what PFF refers to a deep ball as well - one of the most prominent sources of statistics. It may be difficult to find what you are looking for.
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Re: Brandin Cooks Traded To Rams

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:45 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:00 pm Most statistical breakdowns use 20 yards as the cut-off for "deep balls", I know that is what PFF refers to a deep ball as well - one of the most prominent sources of statistics. It may be difficult to find what you are looking for.
Yeah it is tough to find. I did manage to find it here, but unfortunately it is from 2014: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/q ... -passing-2

In that article (again from 2014, so not sure how relevant) they graded Brady as tied for 25th on 31-40 yard passes, and 22nd on 40+ yard passes. Less than ideal and that was when we would assume he had a stronger arm.

I can't find a similar article for 2017, unfortunately.

ETA: Looks like Eric found some 2017 numbers above, though not as comprehensive as the 2014 article where they attempted to grade the QBs performance with the WR quality removed from the equation.
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Cooks extended

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:25 pm

5 year extension, not sure the terms.
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Re: Cooks extended

Postby abajaba » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:30 pm

Hopefully this shows he isn't just a decoy deep threat for that offense
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Re: Cooks extended

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:37 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:25 pm 5 year extension, not sure the terms.
This is another reason that I like Cooks more than most on this forum, the Rams had said all along that they were going to extend him and tried to acquire him before the 2017 season. Finally a team shows a long term commitment to him, he’s from California, if I remember correctly and now tied to a team with, imo, one of the better young HC in the game and one of the better offenses in the NFL.

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Re: Cooks extended

Postby Phaded » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:42 pm

Shows commitment to using him long term and they'll still have him as he enters his peak.

While I think this offense is due to regress, I think he is unquestionably their most talented receiver. My only concern is Goff at this point - but he is still developing too.

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Re: Cooks extended

Postby abajaba » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:43 pm

5 years at $80mill, keeps him there through 2023
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