Sell me on Calvin Ridley

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dynastyninja
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby dynastyninja » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:27 am

Props to both of you for being so confident in your analysis of Ridley. I have no idea what I really think about him.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby bsp27 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:48 am

Vcize wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:19 am
bsp27 wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:02 pm You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.
You're characterizing this like Ridley was some chump at a younger age then finally broke out when he was 23 and 3 years older than everyone around him. That's not the case. He broke out as a freshman at age 20. 20 is old for a freshman, but it's not old for a college football player. As Alabama's #1 WR right out of the gate he was likely lining up mostly against upper classman, who were the same age as him, during his breakout year. So this characterization that he only beat kids who were younger than him is false.

Regarding dominator, that has already been debunked a bit in another thread. Ridley's dominator is falsely deflated by Alabama throwing a lot with their backups when they had big leads while Ridley was sitting on the bench. Most WRs get about 55-60% of their production in the 2nd half of games, but Ridley got only 30% of his production in the 2nd half, because he typically found himself on the bench sipping Mai Tai's with a 40 point lead in the 2nd half.

I don't know how to measure dominator counting only when the game was still actually competitive, but if we could I bet Ridley's would not only not be weak, but would be pretty strong. He had literally 4x the receiving yards and 5x the receptions of the next leading receiver on the team (yes, 14-264-2 was Alabama's 2nd leading receiver last year!), there were just a bunch of garbage time passing yards spread around a bunch of developing prospects while Ridley was hanging out celebrating the big 1.5 quarters he just played before taking the rest of the day off.

ETA: I just looked and last year when the game was within 14 points, Ridley's dominator was 45%, which is MASSIVE. When the game was within 21 points his dominator was 43.5%. When Alabama was leading by 22+ points his dominator was 5.7%. Given how often Alabama led by 22+ points (30.7% of Alabama's passing production came in this scenario) while Ridley was on the bench, this is why his dominator score appears so low overall. In reality, his dominator was massive.
It'd be great if u could provide some empirical evidence showing how many plays he sat out when they had a large lead.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:13 am

dynastyninja wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:27 am Props to both of you for being so confident in your analysis of Ridley. I have no idea what I really think about him.
Lol...I'm with you. I've barely looked at him. Not only does the age concern me but I typically ignore sub 200 WR's unless they're super fast, like Cooks or Fuller.

Landing spots that would peak my interest though:

Indy
Dallas
Green Bay
Atlanta (a little..landing with Julio tremendously caps his upside but Ryan has supported 2 top fantasy WR's in the past).
San Francisco

I would say New Orleans too but Brees isn't long for the league. That's about it though. Maybe Tennessee as well looking at the list of teams currently. They just jumped out to me.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Vcize » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:35 am

bsp27 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:48 am
Vcize wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:19 am
bsp27 wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:02 pm You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.
You're characterizing this like Ridley was some chump at a younger age then finally broke out when he was 23 and 3 years older than everyone around him. That's not the case. He broke out as a freshman at age 20. 20 is old for a freshman, but it's not old for a college football player. As Alabama's #1 WR right out of the gate he was likely lining up mostly against upper classman, who were the same age as him, during his breakout year. So this characterization that he only beat kids who were younger than him is false.

Regarding dominator, that has already been debunked a bit in another thread. Ridley's dominator is falsely deflated by Alabama throwing a lot with their backups when they had big leads while Ridley was sitting on the bench. Most WRs get about 55-60% of their production in the 2nd half of games, but Ridley got only 30% of his production in the 2nd half, because he typically found himself on the bench sipping Mai Tai's with a 40 point lead in the 2nd half.

I don't know how to measure dominator counting only when the game was still actually competitive, but if we could I bet Ridley's would not only not be weak, but would be pretty strong. He had literally 4x the receiving yards and 5x the receptions of the next leading receiver on the team (yes, 14-264-2 was Alabama's 2nd leading receiver last year!), there were just a bunch of garbage time passing yards spread around a bunch of developing prospects while Ridley was hanging out celebrating the big 1.5 quarters he just played before taking the rest of the day off.

ETA: I just looked and last year when the game was within 14 points, Ridley's dominator was 45%, which is MASSIVE. When the game was within 21 points his dominator was 43.5%. When Alabama was leading by 22+ points his dominator was 5.7%. Given how often Alabama led by 22+ points (30.7% of Alabama's passing production came in this scenario) while Ridley was on the bench, this is why his dominator score appears so low overall. In reality, his dominator was massive.
It'd be great if u could provide some empirical evidence showing how many plays he sat out when they had a large lead.
Unfortunately I'm not aware of a way to find this data, but is that really necessary? His dominator drops from 43.5% to 5.7% once the game is out of hand. Meanwhile a bunch of random underclassmen backup receivers and the team's backup QB have 90+‰ of their production accounted for in these same "game out of hand" scenarios. That seems to paint a pretty clear picture of when the starters are on the bench.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:37 am

Nice research vcize. Great context to his market share numbers.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby tresskid84 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:56 am

I think he destined for the slot . . . which is ok. He truly is a great route runner already and I think he could be a great slot wr. I agree with the general sentiment on him though, as well. He has too many flaws for me to take him day 1. He struggles with physicality and his hands have been very suspect, especially in traffic.

He is absolutely terrific at creating separation on his routes and setting up defenders, so if my team needed a slot wr, I would be happy with him on day 2. My interest in him for fantasy will be heavily dependent on how the team that takes him plans on using him.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Pullo Vision » Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:54 pm

Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:37 am Nice research vcize. Great context to his market share numbers.
Cheap post here, but seconded. Sometimes stats do reflect on-field impact.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:04 pm

Not gonna lie - I do not know much about Ridley and he does not jump off the screen at me but this thread provides something to think about.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby spotxc » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:18 pm

Bsp sounds like he’s trying save face over here with his history stance of 3 years worth of history

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Bot101 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:20 pm

I just dont know what to think about him. All the data says this kid wont do well. His size, his athleticism, his age are all poor. But the tape grinders all gush over him.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:11 pm

Ageists were also against Michael Thomas and that didn't work out well for them.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:12 pm

#fadethepublic as Evan Silva likes to say.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby bsp27 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:30 pm

Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:12 pm #fadethepublic as Evan Silva likes to say.
the public has Ridley as a consensus top 3 receiver lol
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Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby bsp27 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:31 pm

spotxc wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:18 pm Bsp sounds like he’s trying save face over here with his history stance of 3 years worth of history
6*
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby sugbear65 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:54 pm

He is quite the enigma, but personally there are so many RBs I like in this draft that I’m not going to have a hard time avoiding him, so if I do end up with him it would only be because the value was too good to pass up.


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