Sell me on Calvin Ridley

[AussieMate]

Calvin is someone in avoiding unless it's a mid second. I've watched film and analysis of him and there is nothing I like, would much rather sutton or Moore. I'd even prefer to take a flyer on ESB although I would try and trade back first as I don't want to throw away value. With the average wrs and overhyped RBS I'll be looking to trade out of 2018 all together if I didn't want a qb some where

[bsp27]

I mean, i think the discussion becomes a lot shorter when we begin with the assumption that dominator rating and breakout age are as predictive as we want them to be.

I mean, I provided the chart which shows that there no receivers in his archetype that have succeeded, and that isn't even including his lackluster production.

I don't know what you, or anyone else considers production, or succeeding, but I would say Cooper Kupp's rookie season of 62/869/5 isn't necessarily not succeeding or producing.... and I see no reason he can't get better. The rest of your list I could get on board with (although Keelan Cole had a decent 2nd half of his season as well). Maybe an outlier? Maybe a fluke season?

just a thought.

Let's just say that Cooper Kupp was very fortunate to have a quarterback that thought Sammy Watkins was a decoy.

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute. Kupp will be a decent wr 3 for his entire career, and the only thing that would ever give him wr 2 status is a fluky td rate season.


I wouldn't be surprised if Ridley followed a similar career path. He likely will be relatively productive as a rookie due to his route running prowess, but I don't see him improving much after that. D.J. Moore, conversely, will likely take time to develop, but his ceiling is much much higher.

[BigBawseRoss]

thought this was interesting. maybe those with a 1.05-1.07 and planning on WR could try to swing a trade for Cooks since now owners are unsure of his new home (not the pick straight up likely but add a piece and get the proven guy who aint much older).

"Rams receiver Brandin Cooks, 24, is a mere 16 months older than the top receiver prospect in the draft, Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, 23. Ridley will turn 24 in his rookie season. Cooks leads Ridley in NFL games played, 61-0."

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/09/nfl-d ... peter-king

its mofuggin gil brandt sh*t but the players age is the players age lol

[Pullo Vision]

thought this was interesting. maybe those with a 1.05-1.07 and planning on WR could try to swing a trade for Cooks since now owners are unsure of his new home (not the pick straight up likely but add a piece and get the proven guy who aint much older).

"Rams receiver Brandin Cooks, 24, is a mere 16 months older than the top receiver prospect in the draft, Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, 23. Ridley will turn 24 in his rookie season. Cooks leads Ridley in NFL games played, 61-0."

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/09/nfl-d ... peter-king

its mofuggin gil brandt sh*t but the players age is the players age lol

That's interesting, but you don't determine how many points you score by adding up the ages of who you started. I'm not certain what role Cooks will have. There's just 1 too many WRs there for me to comfortably invest.

Fwiw, I've seen Ridley compared to Diggs- not an alpha WR, but more of a 1A. Detroit's Jones/Tate combo, Denver's Sanders/Thomas other examples of a strong starting corps with neither being an alpha.

[ajmyk]

Ridley might be old but he seems NFL-ready enough. I think he could produce right away and i dont see that happening for Moore or Sutton.

[ninotoreS]

Ridley broke-out three seasons ago with Coker, and his stats only dropped off the next two seasons because Bama basically had a tall running-back playing quarter-back. Hurts threw for barely 2k yards last season, for chrissake.

Thus, that freshman season when he had a real passing QB should put to bed criticism about his age now, as the latter datapoint is meant to be relevant as an indicator of whether or not a player's dominance in college was simply due to being older than the other players. While his breakout age still isn't elite (he wasn't 18), Ridley nonetheless hit the SEC immediately dominating.

As for conflating his age with his height to narrowly compile a pessimistic comparable list (which is also apparently cutoff after the past five years), that seems like nonsense data-spin to me, unrooted in real logic.

Ridley's tape is what matters most. And I agree with what nearly every other published write-up has concluded: Ridley has the makings of an NFL Pro Bowler IF he can learn to deal better with press. If he can, he'll get open all day in the NFL as something akin to a Marvin Harrison clone. If he can't, he might be relegated to the slot in the NFL.

Speaking of Marvin Harrison, he was 23 or 24 as a rookie. 6'0", 185/190lbs. Like Ridley, his collegiate stats were checked by the offense he was in. Like Ridley, he was a smooth route-technician that got open at will short-intermediate, with field-stretching straight-line speed for the perimeter. Like Ridley, he was best countered with press.

Let's just say that Cooper Kupp was very fortunate to have a quarterback that thought Sammy Watkins was a decoy.

Kupp graded better than Watkins on tape last year, 81 to 76. PFF doesn't just grade the snaps targeted, but all snaps played. Kupp played better football than Watkins in '17, and is now the all-time most productive rookie Rams receiver.

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute.

Baseless. Pro wide-receivers continue improving their craft after age 24 on a routine basis. There have been league superstars like Reggie Wayne and Michael Irvin that didn't even compile a 1k yard season in the pros until their fourth year.

[Vcize]

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute.

Baseless. Pro wide-receivers continue improving their craft after age 24 on a routine basis. There have been league superstars like Reggie Wayne and Michael Irvin that didn't even compile a 1k yard season in the pros until their fourth year.

Right, or Antonio Brown, who's best finish through age 24 was WR25, which is right where Kupp finished last year.

[bsp27]

Ridley broke-out three seasons ago with Coker, and his stats only dropped off the next two seasons because Bama basically had a tall running-back playing quarter-back. Hurts threw for barely 2k yards last season, for chrissake.

Thus, that freshman season when he had a real passing QB should put to bed criticism about his age now, as the latter datapoint is meant to be relevant as an indicator of whether or not a player's dominance in college was simply due to being older than the other players. While his breakout age still isn't elite (he wasn't 18), Ridley nonetheless hit the SEC immediately dominating.

As for conflating his age with his height to narrowly compile a pessimistic comparable list (which is also apparently cutoff after the past five years), that seems like nonsense data-spin to me, unrooted in real logic.

Ridley's tape is what matters most. And I agree with what nearly every other published write-up has concluded: Ridley has the makings of an NFL Pro Bowler IF he can learn to deal better with press. If he can, he'll get open all day in the NFL as something akin to a Marvin Harrison clone. If he can't, he might be relegated to the slot in the NFL.

Speaking of Marvin Harrison, he was 23 or 24 as a rookie. 6'0", 185/190lbs. Like Ridley, his collegiate stats were checked by the offense he was in. Like Ridley, he was a smooth route-technician that got open at will short-intermediate, with field-stretching straight-line speed for the perimeter. Like Ridley, he was best countered with press.

Let's just say that Cooper Kupp was very fortunate to have a quarterback that thought Sammy Watkins was a decoy.

Kupp graded better than Watkins on tape last year, 81 to 76. PFF doesn't just grade the snaps targeted, but all snaps played. Kupp played better football than Watkins in '17, and is now the all-time most productive rookie Rams receiver.

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute.

Baseless. Pro wide-receivers continue improving their craft after age 24 on a routine basis. There have been league superstars like Reggie Wayne and Michael Irvin that didn't even compile a 1k yard season in the pros until their fourth year.

Marvin Harrison is an outlier. I'm not sure why you want to chase outliers.

Of course his route running is better than the other receivers, because he has had 3+ more years to improve it! Just like Sterling Shephard and Cooper Kupp before him, these old but "refined route runners" come into the league with an advantage, which causes them to produce earlier in their NFL career. But, their upside is extremely capped because lack of athleticism and them not producing at a young age in college.

Reggie Wayne and Irvin are completely different. They did not produce in their first year, like Kupp. A player like Devin Funchess came into the league extremely raw, but his upside was tremendous because of his athleticism and age-adjusted production. He was able to take a huge leap because he tremendously improved his route running. Cooper Kupp is already a good route runner. That's the problem. He is not going to significantly get faster, bigger, stronger. It's much easier to improve route running than it is to improve intangibles. That is why The Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp's and Sterling Shephard's almost always remain what they are as rookies, while the Devin Funchess', Davante Adams' improve after their rookie years at a much greater rate.

[bsp27]

Ridley broke-out three seasons ago with Coker, and his stats only dropped off the next two seasons because Bama basically had a tall running-back playing quarter-back. Hurts threw for barely 2k yards last season, for chrissake.

Thus, that freshman season when he had a real passing QB should put to bed criticism about his age now, as the latter datapoint is meant to be relevant as an indicator of whether or not a player's dominance in college was simply due to being older than the other players. While his breakout age still isn't elite (he wasn't 18), Ridley nonetheless hit the SEC immediately dominating.

As for conflating his age with his height to narrowly compile a pessimistic comparable list (which is also apparently cutoff after the past five years), that seems like nonsense data-spin to me, unrooted in real logic.

Ridley's tape is what matters most. And I agree with what nearly every other published write-up has concluded: Ridley has the makings of an NFL Pro Bowler IF he can learn to deal better with press. If he can, he'll get open all day in the NFL as something akin to a Marvin Harrison clone. If he can't, he might be relegated to the slot in the NFL.

Speaking of Marvin Harrison, he was 23 or 24 as a rookie. 6'0", 185/190lbs. Like Ridley, his collegiate stats were checked by the offense he was in. Like Ridley, he was a smooth route-technician that got open at will short-intermediate, with field-stretching straight-line speed for the perimeter. Like Ridley, he was best countered with press.

Let's just say that Cooper Kupp was very fortunate to have a quarterback that thought Sammy Watkins was a decoy.

Kupp graded better than Watkins on tape last year, 81 to 76. PFF doesn't just grade the snaps targeted, but all snaps played. Kupp played better football than Watkins in '17, and is now the all-time most productive rookie Rams receiver.

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute.

Baseless. Pro wide-receivers continue improving their craft after age 24 on a routine basis. There have been league superstars like Reggie Wayne and Michael Irvin that didn't even compile a 1k yard season in the pros until their fourth year.

Marvin Harrison is an outlier. I'm not sure why you want to chase outliers.

Of course his route running is better than the other receivers, because he has had 3+ more years to improve it! Just like Sterling Shephard and Cooper Kupp before him, these old but "refined route runners" come into the league with an advantage, which causes them to produce earlier in their NFL career. But, their upside is extremely capped because lack of athleticism and them not producing at a young age in college.

Reggie Wayne and Irvin are completely different. They did not produce in their first year, like Kupp. A player like Devin Funchess came into the league extremely raw, but his upside was tremendous because of his athleticism and age-adjusted production. He was able to take a huge leap because he tremendously improved his route running. Cooper Kupp is already a good route runner. That's the problem. He is not going to significantly get faster, bigger, stronger. It's much easier to improve route running than it is to improve intangibles. That is why The Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp's and Sterling Shephard's almost always remain what they are as rookies, while the Devin Funchess', Davante Adams' have a MUCH higher ceiling and improve after their rookie years at a much greater rate.

[Rosenbluu]

Ridley broke-out three seasons ago with Coker, and his stats only dropped off the next two seasons because Bama basically had a tall running-back playing quarter-back. Hurts threw for barely 2k yards last season, for chrissake.

Thus, that freshman season when he had a real passing QB should put to bed criticism about his age now, as the latter datapoint is meant to be relevant as an indicator of whether or not a player's dominance in college was simply due to being older than the other players. While his breakout age still isn't elite (he wasn't 18), Ridley nonetheless hit the SEC immediately dominating.

As for conflating his age with his height to narrowly compile a pessimistic comparable list (which is also apparently cutoff after the past five years), that seems like nonsense data-spin to me, unrooted in real logic.

Ridley's tape is what matters most. And I agree with what nearly every other published write-up has concluded: Ridley has the makings of an NFL Pro Bowler IF he can learn to deal better with press. If he can, he'll get open all day in the NFL as something akin to a Marvin Harrison clone. If he can't, he might be relegated to the slot in the NFL.

Speaking of Marvin Harrison, he was 23 or 24 as a rookie. 6'0", 185/190lbs. Like Ridley, his collegiate stats were checked by the offense he was in. Like Ridley, he was a smooth route-technician that got open at will short-intermediate, with field-stretching straight-line speed for the perimeter. Like Ridley, he was best countered with press.

Let's just say that Cooper Kupp was very fortunate to have a quarterback that thought Sammy Watkins was a decoy.

Kupp graded better than Watkins on tape last year, 81 to 76. PFF doesn't just grade the snaps targeted, but all snaps played. Kupp played better football than Watkins in '17, and is now the all-time most productive rookie Rams receiver.

I think it's highly likely that this was Kupp's ceiling. Coming in at such an old age, it seems rather difficult for him to improve, given the fact that his route running is already his strongest attribute.

Baseless. Pro wide-receivers continue improving their craft after age 24 on a routine basis. There have been league superstars like Reggie Wayne and Michael Irvin that didn't even compile a 1k yard season in the pros until their fourth year.

This

[Jason3123]

Man, just looked up Harrison's resume. Really broke out in Y4, at 27 years old. Then rattled off 8 STRAIGHT 1,000+ yards, 10+ TD seasons. Damn. Finally fell off at 35 years old. What a legendary run! 1st round pick at 23 years old, then didn't really take off until Y4. Today's dynasty players would've buried him quickly. And probably find some flaws after that season and claim they need to sell cause of age. Then watched in horror as he posted top 5 fantasy seasons for another 7 years lol.

[ninotoreS]

It's laughable to be quite honest. He's an average at best athlete all around. Just look at his player profiler page to see how truly average this guy is..

Bro, workout metrics are only one facet of prospect evaluation. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, etc are 'truly average' (or worse) according to Playerprofiler. It's laughable to be quite honest.

he'll never be able to be a #1 and demand that defenses double him or gameplan to stop him

Ridley is already noted for having beaten SEC double-teams. Ridley accounted for nearly half of Hurts' passing yards last season, and he had at least 49 more receptions than any other WR on the team. Defenses knew pre-snap Ridley was getting targeted on obvious passing-downs, and he got open anyway.

Marvin Harrison is an outlier. I'm not sure why you want to chase outliers.

You claimed there were no successful comparables, so of course I gave you the nearly inch-perfect comparable that totally contradicts that claim, and even aligns with your questionable parameters for comparison.

A 1st round pick like Marvin Harrison panning out isn't an outlier; it's what the NFL expected.

An outlier is a star like Wes Welker, undrafted at 5'9" with a 4.7 40. In contrast, Ridley has historically safe height and straight-line speed. Burst-score is not nearly as important an historical pro success correlate as height and 40 time, and in Ridley's case is contradicted by the tape anyway. Ridley's age as a rookie is not the dire indicator you claimed with your "literally never" illogically narrow comparable list that actually only went back to 2012, and still had Cooper Kupp on it regardless. Lastly and most importantly, Ridley's collegiate tape is Day 1 material, and it's apparent from your OP that you haven't done much or any informed study of that, which insofar as establishing your prognosticator credibility is akin to a high-school student's prospect for success on the SAT after studying for only half the subjects.

If Ridley is a Day 1 pick (as projected) and becomes a Pro Bowler, he won't be considered an 'outlier' by anyone truly informed.

Reggie Wayne and Irvin are completely different.

Not according to the specific parameter by which you made an assertion, and by which I replied. You suggested Kupp is unlikely to become better just because he's 24, and that's just false. From modest journeymen to superstars, pro WRs achieving their pinnacle in their late 20s is a regular occurrence.

Cooper Kupp is already a good route runner. That's the problem.

Kupp had nice route-craft for a rookie, dude. His room for improvement is vast. The route-craft skill-ceiling is cavernous. The ceiling is Antonio Brown; he wins with practically nothing else, and it's made him the best wide-receiver on the planet.

It's much easier to improve route running than it is to improve intangibles. That is why The Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp's and Sterling Shephard's almost always remain what they are as rookies, while the Devin Funchess', Davante Adams' have a MUCH higher ceiling and improve after their rookie years at a much greater rate.

It's like you were just throwing statements at the wall here, hoping something would stick. All of this is baseless. And you seem to be confused about the traits the term 'intangibles' refers to.


You posted this thread to be counter-argued, and I've done it very well. You can suit yourself now. "Lead a horse to water" and all that.

[Rosenbluu]

I would be pretty excited if Ridley went to the Cowboys, Dak and Ridley would compliment each other skillsets. Also wouldnt mind him going to the Seahawks. Baldwin/Ridley would be another 1A/1B WR like discussed in the other thread.

If he goes to either of those spots I can see him being valued around 1.03-.105 depending where everyone lands. This RB class has alot of ?'s outside of the BarkleyGuice. Ridley may never be a WR1 but he will put up some nice numbers year 1 and if Corey Davis value can rise as high as it has after doing nothing in year one I cant see how Ridley's wont when he produces some solid numbers next year.

[bsp27]

It's laughable to be quite honest. He's an average at best athlete all around. Just look at his player profiler page to see how truly average this guy is..

Bro, workout metrics are only one facet of prospect evaluation. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, etc are 'truly average' (or worse) according to Playerprofiler. It's laughable to be quite honest.

he'll never be able to be a #1 and demand that defenses double him or gameplan to stop him

Ridley is already noted for having beaten SEC double-teams and gameplans. Ridley accounted for nearly half of Hurts' passing yards last season, and he had at least 49 more receptions than any other WR on the team. Defenses knew pre-snap Ridley was getting targeted on obvious passing-downs, and he got open anyway.

Marvin Harrison is an outlier. I'm not sure why you want to chase outliers.

You claimed there were no successful comparables, so of course I gave you the nearly inch-perfect comparable that totally contradicts that claim, and even aligns with your questionable parameters for comparison.

A 1st round pick like Marvin Harrison panning out isn't an outlier; it's what the NFL expected.

An outlier is a star like Wes Welker, undrafted at 5'9" with a 4.7 40. In contrast, Ridley has historically safe height and straight-line speed. Burst-score is not nearly as important an historical pro success correlate as height and 40 time, and is contradicted by the tape anyway. Ridley's age as a rookie is not the dire indicator you claimed with your "literally never" illogically narrow comparable list that actually only went back to 2012, and still had Cooper Kupp on it anyway. Lastly and most importantly, Ridley's collegiate tape is Day 1 material, and it's apparent from your OP that you haven't done much or any informed study of that, which insofar as establishing your prognosticator credibility is akin to a high-school student's prospect for success on the SAT after studying for only half the subjects.

If Ridley is a Day 1 pick (as projected) and becomes a Pro Bowler, he won't be considered an 'outlier' by anyone truly informed.

You posted this thread to be counter-argued, and I've done it very well. You can suit yourself now. "Lead a horse to water" and all that.

I'm not that familiar with Harrison, I didn't watch the nfl back then. But, what makes him an outlier, is the fact that he broke out in the NFL at age 27. And the fact that you have to that far back to find a successful comp for Ridley (other than Kupp) is pretty telling.

If you size adjust Ridley's speed, its just slightly above average.

You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.

You can drool over his "fluid route running" all you want, but I'm going to trust the decades of history supporting age-adjusted production metrics over what some random guys subjective interpretation of his "tape" is. Sorry.

If you combine his awful athleticism, with the poor production, and the bad age-adjusted production, it becomes very clear that Ridley is not deserving of a top 3 round NFL draft pick.

[Vcize]

You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.

You're characterizing this like Ridley was some chump at a younger age then finally broke out when he was 23 and 3 years older than everyone around him. That's not the case. He broke out as a freshman at age 20. 20 is old for a freshman, but it's not old for a college football player. As Alabama's #1 WR right out of the gate he was likely lining up mostly against upper classman, who were the same age as him, during his breakout year. So this characterization that he only beat kids who were younger than him is false.

Regarding dominator, that has already been debunked a bit in another thread. Ridley's dominator is falsely deflated by Alabama throwing a lot with their backups when they had big leads while Ridley was sitting on the bench. Most WRs get about 55-60% of their production in the 2nd half of games, but Ridley got only 30% of his production in the 2nd half, because he typically found himself on the bench sipping Mai Tai's with a 40 point lead in the 2nd half.

I don't know how to measure dominator counting only when the game was still actually competitive, but if we could I bet Ridley's would not only not be weak, but would be pretty strong. He had literally 4x the receiving yards and 5x the receptions of the next leading receiver on the team (yes, 14-264-2 was Alabama's 2nd leading receiver last year!), there were just a bunch of garbage time passing yards spread around a bunch of developing prospects while Ridley was hanging out celebrating the big 1.5 quarters he just played before taking the rest of the day off.

ETA: I just looked and last year when the game was within 14 points, Ridley's dominator was 45%, which is MASSIVE. When the game was within 21 points his dominator was 43.5%. When Alabama was leading by 22+ points his dominator was 5.7%. Given how often Alabama led by 22+ points (30.7% of Alabama's passing production came in this scenario) while Ridley was on the bench, this is why his dominator score appears so low overall. In reality, his dominator was massive.