Sell me on Calvin Ridley

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Jason3123
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:05 pm

bsp27 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:30 pm
Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:12 pm #fadethepublic as Evan Silva likes to say.
the public has Ridley as a consensus top 3 receiver lol
lol, whoops...well not the dynasty public.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Bot101 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm

Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:11 pm Ageists were also against Michael Thomas and that didn't work out well for them.
Its not just age. Thomas is 6'3" and 212lbs and above average across the board. Ridley is tiny in comparison, non explosive in comparison, and Thomas landed in the perfect situation.

Truthers want to justify old age... ok
Truthers want to justify poor dominator rating... ok
Truthers want to justify poor SPARQ-x score... ok
Truthers want to justify small height... ok
Truthers want to justify light weight... ok
Truthers want to justify poor ratings vs press... ok

Where does it stop?

Truthers say "He has precision route running"

That doesnt sell me by itself. That doesnt sell me that he will be a productive prospect at the NFL level, and justify a early/mid 1st rnd rookie pick. He plays WR which naturally inflates his value. And considering there are teams with heavy WR needs (Dallas and Carolina come to mind), he is likely locked into being drafted in the 1st rnd of the NFL draft. Im sorry, I just dont see him being this productive player that his loyal fans project him to be. There are outliers obviously. AB had similar or near numbers to Ridley. So I hope beyond anything that he can capture lightning in a bottle and prove me wrong. I dont root against any prospect coming into the NFL.
Last edited by Bot101 on Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:54 pm He is quite the enigma, but personally there are so many RBs I like in this draft that I’m not going to have a hard time avoiding him, so if I do end up with him it would only be because the value was too good to pass up.
This is a good point. It's not like you have to spend a top 3-4 pick on him. You're getting him in the 8-12 range, which is awesome value. In years past we've been taking Perriman, Shepard, Dorsett in that range and he's a superior prospect to them. And also he's not one of those raw athletic types. He's a legit technician. Those typically seem to do well.

I just talked myself into Ridley, bleep.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:10 pm

Bot, I agree on the size thing. That's why I'm not touting him. If I'm drafting a 190 pound WR he better be running 4.3. I was just stating the Thomas thing as an example of the age critics, to play devil's advocate.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Bot101 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:12 pm

Im rooting for the guy. Please dont get me wrong. I just think overall he has so many factors against him that his fans will be overall disappointed in what he brings long term in fantasy.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Hottoddies » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:16 pm

Vcize wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:19 am
bsp27 wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:02 pm You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.
You're characterizing this like Ridley was some chump at a younger age then finally broke out when he was 23 and 3 years older than everyone around him. That's not the case. He broke out as a freshman at age 20. 20 is old for a freshman, but it's not old for a college football player. As Alabama's #1 WR right out of the gate he was likely lining up mostly against upper classman, who were the same age as him, during his breakout year. So this characterization that he only beat kids who were younger than him is false.

Regarding dominator, that has already been debunked a bit in another thread. Ridley's dominator is falsely deflated by Alabama throwing a lot with their backups when they had big leads while Ridley was sitting on the bench. Most WRs get about 55-60% of their production in the 2nd half of games, but Ridley got only 30% of his production in the 2nd half, because he typically found himself on the bench sipping Mai Tai's with a 40 point lead in the 2nd half.

I don't know how to measure dominator counting only when the game was still actually competitive, but if we could I bet Ridley's would not only not be weak, but would be pretty strong. He had literally 4x the receiving yards and 5x the receptions of the next leading receiver on the team (yes, 14-264-2 was Alabama's 2nd leading receiver last year!), there were just a bunch of garbage time passing yards spread around a bunch of developing prospects while Ridley was hanging out celebrating the big 1.5 quarters he just played before taking the rest of the day off.

ETA: I just looked and last year when the game was within 14 points, Ridley's dominator was 45%, which is MASSIVE. When the game was within 21 points his dominator was 43.5%. When Alabama was leading by 22+ points his dominator was 5.7%. Given how often Alabama led by 22+ points (30.7% of Alabama's passing production came in this scenario) while Ridley was on the bench, this is why his dominator score appears so low overall. In reality, his dominator was massive.
:clap: :clap: :clap: ...and that's why you have to actually watch the games. Context matters.

The truth is, the man is always open. Every clutch play, he was the man and everybody knew it was coming his way. And they still couldn't cover him.

And yes, he didn't breakout until he was a freshman and he's only as athletic as Antonio Brown. So by all means, pass on him and let me have him.
"Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers." - Socrates

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Bot101 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:26 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:16 pm
Vcize wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:19 am
bsp27 wrote: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:02 pm You still aren't acknowledging the fact that a player as old as Ridley should dominate.. Despite being several years older than his competition, he only posted a 30% (51st) percentile dominator rating. That is very not good.
You're characterizing this like Ridley was some chump at a younger age then finally broke out when he was 23 and 3 years older than everyone around him. That's not the case. He broke out as a freshman at age 20. 20 is old for a freshman, but it's not old for a college football player. As Alabama's #1 WR right out of the gate he was likely lining up mostly against upper classman, who were the same age as him, during his breakout year. So this characterization that he only beat kids who were younger than him is false.

Regarding dominator, that has already been debunked a bit in another thread. Ridley's dominator is falsely deflated by Alabama throwing a lot with their backups when they had big leads while Ridley was sitting on the bench. Most WRs get about 55-60% of their production in the 2nd half of games, but Ridley got only 30% of his production in the 2nd half, because he typically found himself on the bench sipping Mai Tai's with a 40 point lead in the 2nd half.

I don't know how to measure dominator counting only when the game was still actually competitive, but if we could I bet Ridley's would not only not be weak, but would be pretty strong. He had literally 4x the receiving yards and 5x the receptions of the next leading receiver on the team (yes, 14-264-2 was Alabama's 2nd leading receiver last year!), there were just a bunch of garbage time passing yards spread around a bunch of developing prospects while Ridley was hanging out celebrating the big 1.5 quarters he just played before taking the rest of the day off.

ETA: I just looked and last year when the game was within 14 points, Ridley's dominator was 45%, which is MASSIVE. When the game was within 21 points his dominator was 43.5%. When Alabama was leading by 22+ points his dominator was 5.7%. Given how often Alabama led by 22+ points (30.7% of Alabama's passing production came in this scenario) while Ridley was on the bench, this is why his dominator score appears so low overall. In reality, his dominator was massive.
:clap: :clap: :clap: ...and that's why you have to actually watch the games. Context matters.

The truth is, the man is always open. Every clutch play, he was the man and everybody knew it was coming his way. And they still couldn't cover him.

And yes, he didn't breakout until he was a freshman and he's only as athletic as Antonio Brown. So by all means, pass on him and let me have him.
Would you be so kind as to provide what player Ridley was directly going against while on the field? I am not trying to play devils advocate, I just want to know who was covering him. This is my first year watching tape.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby tresskid84 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:26 am

I think Ridley's ceiling is Stevie Johnson, which is perfectly fine for the NFL, though shouldn't be your number 1 wr.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:47 am

Bot101 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pmI just dont see him being this productive player that his loyal fans project him to be.
I think this points to the issue- expectations. Do you demand a player drafted in the first be elite, or have the (perceived) potential to reach it, or are your expectations more modest?

In my experience, it comes down to league. Where I've had deep benches, I've been happy to get production from my rookies, especially if it was at the beginning of their career, even if it was "just" as bye covers. In leagues with short benches, the threshold was higher. If he couldn't start or even be startable depth, he'd have to occupy one of my few stash slots. Two years in a row of non-useful first rounders would swallow my stash roster spots- nevermind the rest of the rookie picks, or browsing the ww.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:58 am

Bot101 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm
Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:11 pm Ageists were also against Michael Thomas and that didn't work out well for them.
Its not just age. Thomas is 6'3" and 212lbs and above average across the board. Ridley is tiny in comparison, non explosive in comparison, and Thomas landed in the perfect situation.

Truthers want to justify old age... ok
Truthers want to justify poor dominator rating... ok
Truthers want to justify poor SPARQ-x score... ok
Truthers want to justify small height... ok
Truthers want to justify light weight... ok
Truthers want to justify poor ratings vs press... ok

Where does it stop?

Truthers say "He has precision route running"

That doesnt sell me by itself. That doesnt sell me that he will be a productive prospect at the NFL level, and justify a early/mid 1st rnd rookie pick. He plays WR which naturally inflates his value. And considering there are teams with heavy WR needs (Dallas and Carolina come to mind), he is likely locked into being drafted in the 1st rnd of the NFL draft. Im sorry, I just dont see him being this productive player that his loyal fans project him to be. There are outliers obviously. AB had similar or near numbers to Ridley. So I hope beyond anything that he can capture lightning in a bottle and prove me wrong. I dont root against any prospect coming into the NFL.
Winning at the LOS, running routes and getting open is a significant part of becoming a successful NFL WR. Ridley is really good at that. Does that mean he'll become a star? No, but it does create a very high floor. I'd rather draft a player who does those things well than not.

And let's not use hindsight with Michael Thomas. A lot of people didn't see anything special in him, despite the fact that he had great size for the position, reliable hands, won at all three levels of the field and was an excellent route runner. The Saints may have amplified his strengths but he already had them to begin with.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby bsp27 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:17 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:58 am
Bot101 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm
Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:11 pm Ageists were also against Michael Thomas and that didn't work out well for them.
Its not just age. Thomas is 6'3" and 212lbs and above average across the board. Ridley is tiny in comparison, non explosive in comparison, and Thomas landed in the perfect situation.

Truthers want to justify old age... ok
Truthers want to justify poor dominator rating... ok
Truthers want to justify poor SPARQ-x score... ok
Truthers want to justify small height... ok
Truthers want to justify light weight... ok
Truthers want to justify poor ratings vs press... ok

Where does it stop?

Truthers say "He has precision route running"

That doesnt sell me by itself. That doesnt sell me that he will be a productive prospect at the NFL level, and justify a early/mid 1st rnd rookie pick. He plays WR which naturally inflates his value. And considering there are teams with heavy WR needs (Dallas and Carolina come to mind), he is likely locked into being drafted in the 1st rnd of the NFL draft. Im sorry, I just dont see him being this productive player that his loyal fans project him to be. There are outliers obviously. AB had similar or near numbers to Ridley. So I hope beyond anything that he can capture lightning in a bottle and prove me wrong. I dont root against any prospect coming into the NFL.
Winning at the LOS, running routes and getting open is a significant part of becoming a successful NFL WR. Ridley is really good at that. Does that mean he'll become a star? No, but it does create a very high floor. I'd rather draft a player who does those things well than not.

And let's not use hindsight with Michael Thomas. A lot of people didn't see anything special in him, despite the fact that he had great size for the position, reliable hands, won at all three levels of the field and was an excellent route runner. The Saints may have amplified his strengths but he already had them to begin with.
Michael Thomas is a decent player but his perception is extremely buoyed by his landing post. Drew Brees and Peyton made him the player he is, just like they turned Marques Colston, an undrafted player, into a star.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby sugbear65 » Tue May 08, 2018 1:03 pm

Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:54 pm He is quite the enigma, but personally there are so many RBs I like in this draft that I’m not going to have a hard time avoiding him, so if I do end up with him it would only be because the value was too good to pass up.
This is a good point. It's not like you have to spend a top 3-4 pick on him. You're getting him in the 8-12 range, which is awesome value. In years past we've been taking Perriman, Shepard, Dorsett in that range and he's a superior prospect to them. And also he's not one of those raw athletic types. He's a legit technician. Those typically seem to do well.

I just talked myself into Ridley, bleep.
Well it happened. I guess I’m a Ridley guy now too, lol. Had a draft this past weekend, and he was staring me down at pick 1.12, as the 4th WR off the board. Didn’t really expect to end up with him but at that point I couldn’t pass it up.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby AussieMate » Tue May 08, 2018 8:43 pm

I enjoy stats but prefer to go off tape when deciding I like a guy. Ridley just never jumped for me, looks good enough but nothing dragged me into thinking "I want this guy" like it did when watching Moore play, I'm just glad I'll have a bunch of qbs and the top wrs to choose from in my keage because I wouldn't be happy if I got stuck with Ridley (that is to say not going to pass on him if he falls to me in the second rnd, I just won't be exited by it).
I'll also apologise to people who want an explanation because I can rarely put into words why I like a guy or not it's just gut feeling and I run with it.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Rosenbluu » Tue May 08, 2018 8:45 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Tue May 08, 2018 1:03 pm
Jason3123 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:08 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:54 pm He is quite the enigma, but personally there are so many RBs I like in this draft that I’m not going to have a hard time avoiding him, so if I do end up with him it would only be because the value was too good to pass up.
This is a good point. It's not like you have to spend a top 3-4 pick on him. You're getting him in the 8-12 range, which is awesome value. In years past we've been taking Perriman, Shepard, Dorsett in that range and he's a superior prospect to them. And also he's not one of those raw athletic types. He's a legit technician. Those typically seem to do well.

I just talked myself into Ridley, bleep.
Well it happened. I guess I’m a Ridley guy now too, lol. Had a draft this past weekend, and he was staring me down at pick 1.12, as the 4th WR off the board. Didn’t really expect to end up with him but at that point I couldn’t pass it up.
That’s a steal, can’t wait to pull this thread up next offseason
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Smus » Wed May 09, 2018 9:59 pm

I thought Ridley was good, not elite, but I felt his QB play at Alabama held him back a fair amount.

To me, I've traded for Ridley knowing full well he's a WR2/3 in Atlanta *right now* and that's fine by me. I've got OBJ, Tyreek and DT to be the top guys.

My thought is this, Julio will hit 30 before the start of this season, and only has 2 more years of dead cap money before he can be cut for nothing. Sanu has another 2 years before his cap number is minimal. Dynasty (to me) isn't about year 1 production, it's about long term potential and I think Ridley has it in Atlanta.

Matt Ryan is locked in long term in Atlanta. Ridley could be the second coming of Roddy White...and we know how that worked out.

To me, the landing spot is ideal, draft capital is huge... taking him as your next #1 WR is a mistake. Taking him as a potential WR2 with upside is the way to look at it.
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