It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

[IR1]

Davis is highest on my list, that injury limited playing and practice time- last almost counts as a red shirt year for me.

Out of curiosity, who were the misses on the 1998-2014 years

[Cult of Dionysus]

Great post, DD.

If I had to pick, I'd say Will Fuller will surprise some people and go for 1,200 yards and 8 TDs in 2018 and finish a top 12 WR. Corey Davis will slowly pick up steam, but level out as a solid WR2. The rest of the guys don't give me any confidence. Glad I didn't make any bonehead moves for any of them. Had Mike Williams in my sights, but now I'm so over him.

[spotxc]

They all bust cause

Trends tend to change, and percentages based off the past don't always present the truth.

[Cameron Giles]

Trends tend to change, and percentages based off the past don't always present the truth.

This thread is an interesting read, but I lean towards this.

I think the issue is that a lot of the recent 1st round WR's simply aren't that good. Granted, I will not dismiss that one of these players can become a stud. I still think Corey Davis is going to be a really good WR and I'd be buying low on him anywhere I could. But, if we're looking at this list:

Reason For Optimism?
Corey Davis
Josh Doctson
Will Fuller

Maybe
Devante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Mike Williams
Corey Coleman
John Ross

Slim To No Chance:
Phillip Dorsett
Breshad Perriman
Kevin White
Laquon Treadwell

And at the same time, I would not be surprised at all if none of these players amount to their upside.

[Hottoddies]

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

• Kevin White
  DeVante Parker
  Nelson Agholor
  Breshad Perriman
  Phillip Dorsett
  Corey Coleman
  Will Fuller
  Josh Doctson
  Laquon Treadwell
  Corey Davis
  Mike Williams
  John Ross

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1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

It's very possible I messed up somewhere

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I think this question may be a bit premature. That 8% hit rate for 1st round WRs drafted in the last three years isn't really out of the norm. Of the 66 WRs drafted in the 1st round from 1998 to 2014, 0% had 2+ 1000 yd seasons in their 1st year, only 6% hit that mark after 2 years, and 15% accomplished that feat in their first 3 years. I think we might need to give these youngster a little more time before we label them a bust. Even the mega-great Calvin Johnson didn't hit that mark until after his 4th year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

• Kevin White
  DeVante Parker
  Nelson Agholor
  Breshad Perriman
  Phillip Dorsett
  Corey Coleman
  Will Fuller
  Josh Doctson
  Laquon Treadwell
  Corey Davis
  Mike Williams
  John Ross

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

It's very possible I messed up somewhere

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think this question may be a bit premature. That 8% hit rate for 1st round WRs drafted in the last three years isn't really out of the norm. Of the 66 WRs drafted in the 1st round from 1998 to 2014, 0% had 2+ 1000 yd seasons in their 1st year, only 6% hit that mark after 2 years, and 15% accomplished that feat in their first 3 years. I think we might need to give these youngster a little more time before we label them a bust. Even the mega-great Calvin Johnson didn't hit that mark until after his 4th year.

Right, that was my point

[lukkynumber13]

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

I think this question may be a bit premature. That 8% hit rate for 1st round WRs drafted in the last three years isn't really out of the norm. Of the 66 WRs drafted in the 1st round from 1998 to 2014, 0% had 2+ 1000 yd seasons in their 1st year, only 6% hit that mark after 2 years, and 15% accomplished that feat in their first 3 years. I think we might need to give these youngster a little more time before we label them a bust. Even the mega-great Calvin Johnson didn't hit that mark until after his 4th year.

I think that's essentially the point of this post tho, sort of a "don't lose hope because statistically a COUPLE of these guys will work out yet" thing

[Hottoddies]

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

I think this question may be a bit premature. That 8% hit rate for 1st round WRs drafted in the last three years isn't really out of the norm. Of the 66 WRs drafted in the 1st round from 1998 to 2014, 0% had 2+ 1000 yd seasons in their 1st year, only 6% hit that mark after 2 years, and 15% accomplished that feat in their first 3 years. I think we might need to give these youngster a little more time before we label them a bust. Even the mega-great Calvin Johnson didn't hit that mark until after his 4th year.

I think that's essentially the point of this post tho, sort of a "don't lose hope because statistically a COUPLE of these guys will work out yet" thing

My bad. I thought people were harping on the lack of WR talent from the last 3 draft classes. Never mind.

[lukkynumber13]

It's all good! I think we are for sure skeptical about some of the talent, and for good reason.

Guys like Ross, Dorsett, Perriman all had significant question marks entering the draft, and were pretty unanimously looked at as cringeworthy in how early they went. Now, to be fair, Fuller had many of those same question marks yet he's been pretty darn succesfull so far.

[AussieMate]

In the last few years Corey Davis has been the only receiver I believed would make it to elite so I'd go with him still. Also 1000 could be had by Fuller or agholar quite easily in this day and age, not so sure about the other receivers on the list.

[Valhalla]

Josh Gordon picks up a beer and Coleman actually doesn’t break his hand for once, I could see him having a nice season. Probably not 1000 from Taylor because Taylor just can’t be relied on to be throwing for a lot of yards, but Gordon is likely gone in a year, and a new QB (likely 1.1 pick) will likely be taking over as Taylor is also an UFA in ‘19. Jarvis Landry is also a ‘19 UFA...so it’s entirely reasonable that Coleman could be the top WR for the 1.1’s second year. I’m not sure why everyone’s so low on the guy and why Doctson, for one, has more promise from most than Coleman does. Someone care to explain?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Josh Gordon picks up a beer and Coleman actually doesn’t break his hand for once, I could see him having a nice season. Probably not 1000 from Taylor because Taylor just can’t be relied on to be throwing for a lot of yards, but Gordon is likely gone in a year, and a new QB (likely 1.1 pick) will likely be taking over as Taylor is also an UFA in ‘19. Jarvis Landry is also a ‘19 UFA...so it’s entirely reasonable that Coleman could be the top WR for the 1.1’s second year. I’m not sure why everyone’s so low on the guy and why Doctson, for one, has more promise from most than Coleman does. Someone care to explain?

Well coming out of college Doctson was the more well rounded player. That’s as simple as I can put it. Coleman had issues with hands catch technique in college and apparently that’s followed him to the nfl. Coleman was not asked to do much of anything at Baylor in terms of blocking or route running. Coleman is in a worse perceived situation now with Gordon Landry njoku browns and Tyrod. Not saying I don’t like Coleman but just about everything you can point to aside from age favors doctston in my opinion.

[meineymoe]

2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)

wow, Hakeem Nicks. He was my guy, everywhere, every league.

Great post, by the way!

-oo-

[bucsrule]

This topic is killer!!! Great OP!!!!

I believe we'll see Fuller break out. With poor qb play I'd be hesitant, but he's got a stud qb coming back that will make it happen. Aside from him I see Corey Davis and Coleman hitting stride.

[cc texan]

2012 – 0 for 4

Oooff! The 2012 draft was a WR dumpster fire.
1.05 Justin Blackmon
1.13 Michael Floyd
1.20 Kendall Wright
1.30 AJ Jenkins

Just for fun...
Round 2: Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles. Rueben Randle
Round 3: DeVier Posey, TJ Graham, Mohammed Sanu, TY Hilton
Round 4: Chris Givens, Travis Benjamin, Joe Adams, Devon Wylie, Jarius Wright, Keyshawn Martin, Nick Toon, Greg Childs
Round 5: Danny Coale, Marvin Jones, Juron Criner
Round 6: BJ Cunningham, Marvin McNutt, Tommy Streeter, LaVon Brazill
Round 7: Rishard Matthews, Toney Clemons, Jeremy Ebert, Junior Hemingway, Jordan White

Bonus: Josh Gordon

There are only 10x 1,000 yard seasons out of the whole group. 4x of them belong to TY Hilton and 2x to Alshon Jeffery. That leaves 4x 1k seasons (out of a possible 192 indv seasons) for the other 32 WRs in that draft.