It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby clarion contrarion » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:18 pm

that is more DUI's and suspensions from the class than 1000 yard seasons
if you take out hilton
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Blackout » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:20 pm

Who will join the 1K+ yards club ?


Good candidates to do and repeat

1/ Davis - Once 50% - Twice 25% - Thrice 10%
2/ Williams - Once 35% - Twice 15% - Thrice 5%

Potential but need some production help (maybe some games without the WR1, Hopkins and OBJ, no star QB injury, game not too much spread...or be on the field and stay focus...isn't it DeVante ? Very optimistic scenario for him...but i don't believe he will...just chances...that he burns one after one)

3/ Fuller - Once 25% - Twice 10% - Thrice 0%
4/ Shepard - Once 20 % - Twice 5% - Thrice 0%
5/ Parker - Once 15% - Twice 5% - Thrice 0%

Sleepers

6/ Agholor - Once 15% - Twice 0% -Thrice 0%
7/ Coleman - Once 10% - Twice 0% - Thrice 0%
8/ Ross - Once 5% - Twice 0% - Thrice 0%

Miss the cut : White, Doctson, Treadwell, Perriman, Dorsett

Edit : Oops Shepard is off-topic. He was "only" a high 2nd rounder. But i like his chances. Others high ones like Samuel and Z.Jones, i don't think so. D.Smith and Green-Beckham no need to mention them. Maybe Funchess.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Ryantacular » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:12 am

I would gamble with a 1st on

DeVante Parker
Josh Doctson
Corey Davis

a 2nd on
Corey Coleman
Nelson Agholor
Fuller
Mike Williams

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby kamihamster » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:25 am

Too many names to guess on. The most chosen ones still have higher prices. I'd buy ones like Agholor where their values plummet and when they start to produce (less risk) and their price starts to go up. Even if you buy on the up swing, you didn't have to invest a 1st and lots of time. In the investing world, they say "dont' catch falling knives". You never know where the bottom really is. When the price starts to recover, sure you may miss the cheapest price, but you're still getting value relative to the initial price.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ericanadian » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:23 pm

clarion contrarion wrote: Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:18 pm that is more DUI's and suspensions from the class than 1000 yard seasons
if you take out hilton
Do you even need to take out Hilton? Gordon's in at 4x. Blackmon has two. Brazill has two. Jeffrey has one. That gets us to nine. Stephen Hill seems to have a two gamer, so that gets us to a tie. I'm sure one of the no names can get us the lead.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:27 pm

Stephen Hill is partaking in the Spring League - so there is always that chance too!
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:04 pm

ericanadian wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:23 pm
clarion contrarion wrote: Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:18 pm that is more DUI's and suspensions from the class than 1000 yard seasons
if you take out hilton
Do you even need to take out Hilton? Gordon's in at 4x. Blackmon has two. Brazill has two. Jeffrey has one. That gets us to nine. Stephen Hill seems to have a two gamer, so that gets us to a tie. I'm sure one of the no names can get us the lead.
yep chris givens and nick toon pretty sure join that ignominious list
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion
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WR ant brown evans c davis golladay godwin gordon j washington doctson watson lazard patrick henderson
RB mixon cohen chubb aaron jones hunt malcolm brown
TE eifert howard njoku
K tucker DEF pittsburgh chicago
2012 , 2014 2015 2016 2017 & 2018 ACDL Champion 5 IN A ROW 6 in 7 years- now that is dynasty!
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:53 pm

Corey Davis (50%)
Will Fuller
Corey Coleman
Williams
Dotson
Parker
Agholor (5%)
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Servo » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:51 pm

As of Today:

Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross


Red = I have 0 hope, but maybe I'd add White or Perriman as end of bench guys...just in case.

Orange = Jury is still out but not sure how much longer. I'd probably add any of these guys, only for a discount.

Green = Not stating they are the next big thing but they are probably the best of what's available.

Overall, it's not a pretty sight so far.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:23 pm

Just remember that going by the criteria that 2 1000 yard seasons are required that some WRs will take longer (due to a variety of reasons) than others. Michael Crabtree for example didnt reach his 2nd 1000 yard season until 2016 (but due to high high receptions & TDs his 2015 season was considered a success by many) which was his 8th year in the league.

Jeremy Maclin didnt reach his 1st 1000 til Year V, even Reggie Wayne didnt reach his 1st until Year IV.

But as long as the WR remains in the league and has a starting (Team WR1/2) role, there is always a chance and I think that some might be a little too pessimistic about some players chances, especially since it is so hard to predict situations more than a year at a time. So a door might be closed at the moment, but open tomorrow. I mean a year ago how many people seriously expected (a) the Bills to decline Watkins 5th year option or (b) that he'd have changed teams 2x in less than a year.*

Btw Kenny Britts door to his 2nd 1000 yard season just opened by a smidgeon. ;) If he did get it that would put 2009 at 4 of 6 1st round WRs to reach DDs criteria, and perhaps further evidence that 2009 was one of the best WR crops prior to 2014?

Other 2009 WRs with 2 1000 yard seasons:
Edelman
Hartline
Wallace
Harvin - if you go by total yards from scrimmage ;)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Valhalla » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:52 am

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:23 pm ...I think that some might be a little too pessimistic about some players chances, especially since it is so hard to predict situations more than a year at a time. So a door might be closed at the moment, but open tomorrow...
Excellent point. I don't understand some of the odds people are placing.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby ericanadian » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:02 pm

Valhalla wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:52 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:23 pm ...I think that some might be a little too pessimistic about some players chances, especially since it is so hard to predict situations more than a year at a time. So a door might be closed at the moment, but open tomorrow...
Excellent point. I don't understand some of the odds people are placing.
Baseline was 35% based on DD's analysis. Therefore, a guy drafted last year, but not having done anything to increase or decrease that number, such as Williams or Ross, would largely remain at that point. Guys moved up or down based on what they've done since being drafted.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Valhalla » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:18 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:02 pm
Valhalla wrote: Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:52 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:23 pm ...I think that some might be a little too pessimistic about some players chances, especially since it is so hard to predict situations more than a year at a time. So a door might be closed at the moment, but open tomorrow...
Excellent point. I don't understand some of the odds people are placing.
Baseline was 35% based on DD's analysis. Therefore, a guy drafted last year, but not having done anything to increase or decrease that number, such as Williams or Ross, would largely remain at that point. Guys moved up or down based on what they've done since being drafted.
Yes I understand that. I just disagree with some of what I've seen is all. Coleman at 10% chance of hitting 1000 once and 0% chance of hitting it twice, for instance. The forum only thrives due to differing opinions, though.

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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby honcho55 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:29 pm

I looked very briefly and gave up on some broad stats: league total catches/yards by position. I could be way off because I didn't do deep enough for the hard numbers, but it seems feasible there's a combination of more athletic pass catching TEs, more two TE sets, more involved RBs catching balls

Cool thread either way.
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Re: It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:16 am

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:23 pm Just remember that going by the criteria that 2 1000 yard seasons are required that some WRs will take longer (due to a variety of reasons) than others. Michael Crabtree for example didnt reach his 2nd 1000 yard season until 2016 (but due to high high receptions & TDs his 2015 season was considered a success by many) which was his 8th year in the league.

Jeremy Maclin didnt reach his 1st 1000 til Year V, even Reggie Wayne didnt reach his 1st until Year IV.

Btw Kenny Britts door to his 2nd 1000 yard season just opened by a smidgeon.
This is what would interest me- how long did it take for the players to hit these thresholds? Did they bounce around and eventually find themselves as the only game in town and become a target hog, like Kamar Aiken a few years ago? Or did the player work on his craft, show consistent improvement and hit the threshold during his rookie contract?
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