It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

[ArrylT]

While I do not plan to update all the WRs and their Yards / projections until after Week VI - I did want to note that Corey Davis is now on a pace to reach 1000+ yards. Whether or not he will be able to average 60 yards per game against the Ravens and Bills (next 2 opponents) will be interesting.

[ArrylT]

2018 production in yardage

Corey Davis - 891 yards
Nelson Agholor - 736 yards
Mike Williams - 664 yards
Josh Doctson - 532 yards
Will Fuller - 503 yards
Breshad Perriman - 340 yards
Laquon Treadwell - 302 yards
DeVante Parker - 309 yards
Phillip Dorsett - 290 yards
John Ross - 210 yards
Kevin White - 92 yards
Corey Coleman - 71 yards

Signs of life from a few but no one has succeeded as of end of 2018.

[Jigga94]

Looks the it's Fuller, Davis, Williams




The rest

[ArrylT]

2018 1st Round WRs to add to list:

Calvin Ridley - 821 yards
DJ Moore - 788 yards

(yes it is likely both pass 1000 - just noting neither has after Year 1)

[Jigga94]

And none of the 1st rounders on the list have even had one 1k yard season yet? I think it's obvious that Davis, Williams and Fuller are ahead of the pack. Odds are they do it and I bet 1 of Moore/Ridley accomplish it

[Dynasty DeLorean]

2018 production in yardage

Corey Davis - 891 yards
Nelson Agholor - 736 yards
Mike Williams - 664 yards
Josh Doctson - 532 yards
Will Fuller - 503 yards
Breshad Perriman - 340 yards
Laquon Treadwell - 302 yards
DeVante Parker - 309 yards
Phillip Dorsett - 290 yards
John Ross - 210 yards
Kevin White - 92 yards
Corey Coleman - 71 yards

Signs of life from a few but no one has succeeded as of end of 2018.

oof... It's looking like this is an all-time all-time bad stretch of 1st round WR's.

I think... Fuller, Mike Williams, Corey Davis still have a shot. Obviously others have a chance but it's gotta be really slim.

And none of the 1st rounders on the list have even had one 1k yard season yet?

Aside from Cooper, it seems so.

[Jigga94]

I think it just goes to show that, more often than not, when 4 plus WR are drafted in the 1st round, the % go down.

2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2012 – 0 for 4
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

2001 had 2 studs but 4 misses
2004 had a HOF, a good WR but 5 misses
2005 was like 2004 bit without the HOFer
2007 had 1 HOF, 1 guy who was like way overvalued in fantasy after it was too late and 4 misses
2009 had a 50% hit rate but I'm not sure people were thrilled with those guys in dynasty for long
2012 ouchh
2014 is an outlier... Are we spoiled looking for the next 2014? I think that's a strong possibility

2015 - 1 for 6. Cooper already did it. The other 5 are busts. White, Perriman, Dorsett, Agholor and Parker.
2016 - 1 for 4. My money is still on Fuller to do it. He only needs 2 fairly healthy seasons... Busts are Coleman Docston and Treadwell.
2017 - 2 for 3 still too early to tell but I'd like to think Davis and Mike Williams can do it. Ross is a no for me
2018 - Ridley and DJ Moore

Looks like DD is right here, a historically bad stretch (looking at 4/13). Seems like the more WR taken, the less that hit. Don't get tricked by the 60% rate of 2014

[Patsfan86]

I think it just goes to show that, more often than not, when 4 plus WR are drafted in the 1st round, the % go down.

2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2012 – 0 for 4
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

2001 had 2 studs but 4 misses
2004 had a HOF, a good WR but 5 misses
2005 was like 2004 bit without the HOFer
2007 had 1 HOF, 1 guy who was like way overvalued in fantasy after it was too late and 4 misses
2009 had a 50% hit rate but I'm not sure people were thrilled with those guys in dynasty for long
2012 ouchh
2014 is an outlier... Are we spoiled looking for the next 2014? I think that's a strong possibility

2015 - 1 for 6. Cooper already did it. The other 5 are busts. White, Perriman, Dorsett, Agholor and Parker.
2016 - 1 for 4. My money is still on Fuller to do it. He only needs 2 fairly healthy seasons... Busts are Coleman Docston and Treadwell.
2017 - 2 for 3 still too early to tell but I'd like to think Davis and Mike Williams can do it. Ross is a no for me
2018 - Ridley and DJ Moore

Looks like DD is right here, a historically bad stretch (looking at 4/13). Seems like the more WR taken, the less that hit. Don't get tricked by the 60% rate of 2014

Love this breakdown and This is a great thread. So interesting. I also think this plays into why this draft class is being so devalued. People in our community are scared to draft WRs due to the bust rate. Its just easier to trade for cheap WRs or find a guy in a later round (Golladay was a third round pick for instance) than it is to risk drafting them and them be the next Treadwell, Doctson, Parker, Ross etc etc.

[Patsfan86]

Id rather overpay and spend a second on an old but steady Mohamed Sanu than draft a guy in the first and wait on them to be a total bust. Guys like Edelman are still going for firsts in my league due to stuff like this.

[ArrylT]

Id rather overpay and spend a second on an old but steady Mohamed Sanu than draft a guy in the first and wait on them to be a total bust. Guys like Edelman are still going for firsts in my league due to stuff like this.

If only more people felt that way - I could not even get a 3rd for Sanu last year (or a 3rd for Goodwin in 2017) in a league - however it turned out for the best as Sanu helped my team make the playoffs and fight to a 3rd place finish (and $).

However many people only want these types of players if they are free or virtually free.

[Patsfan86]

Id rather overpay and spend a second on an old but steady Mohamed Sanu than draft a guy in the first and wait on them to be a total bust. Guys like Edelman are still going for firsts in my league due to stuff like this.

If only more people felt that way - I could not even get a 3rd for Sanu last year (or a 3rd for Goodwin in 2017) in a league - however it turned out for the best as Sanu helped my team make the playoffs and fight to a 3rd place finish (and $).

However many people only want these types of players if they are free or virtually free.

Ya I thought this way AFTER I traded Sanu for nothing, didn't realize my mistake until it was too late. But ya for the most part at least in my league older guys like those two, Tate, etc are still valued pretty highly since we at least know what we are going to get for the most part.

[QB Browns]

This thread provides some really good statistical analysis on the issue. As a current Corey Davis owner I find this breakdown super interesting while I continue to wonder if I'll ever see anything substantial from him.

Keep up the great work! This is definitely a thread I'll continue to follow.

[Orenthal Shames]

Id rather overpay and spend a second on an old but steady Mohamed Sanu than draft a guy in the first and wait on them to be a total bust. Guys like Edelman are still going for firsts in my league due to stuff like this.

This is my usual go-to as well. Sanders was cheap coming into this year. Edelman sold for a 2nd during the season. I'll make those moves all day.

More often than not you can buy these early round rookie wrs at a discount after a year or two.

[Pullo Vision]

• Kevin White
  DeVante Parker
  Nelson Agholor
  Breshad Perriman
  Phillip Dorsett
  Corey Coleman
  Will Fuller
  Josh Doctson
  Laquon Treadwell
  Corey Davis
  Mike Williams
  John Ross

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

What years these WRs got their first two 1000 yard seasons-
1998 – RMoss- 2000, 2001
1999 – Holt- 2000, 2001; Boston- 2000, 2001
2000 – Burress- 2001, 2002
2001 – SMoss- 2003, 2005; Wayne- 2004, 2005
2002 – Javon Walker- 2004, 2006
2003 – Andre Johnson- 2004, 2006
2004 – Lee Evans- 2006, 2008; Larry Fitzgerald- 2005, 2007
2005 – Roddy White- 2007, 2008
2007 – Calvin Johnson- 2008, 2010; Dwayne Bowe- 2008, 2010
2009 – Crabtree- 2012, 2016; Maclin- 2014, 2015; Nicks- 2010, 2011
2010 – DT- 2012, 2013; Dez- 2012, 2013
2011 – AJG- 2011, 2012; Julio- 2012, 2014
2013 – Hopkins- 2014, 2015
2014 – Evans- 2014, 2015; OBJ- 2014, 2015; Cooks- 2015, 2016
Next time I'll try to track the number of total seasons and number of 1k+ seasons.

In terms of how the 2015-17 WRs have performed so far, the 2009 season might be a good guide. Neither Crabs nor Maclin performed highly initially, while Nicks performed well immediately but injuries shortened his career. In short- no studs.

Throwing out names that will hit twice- Agholor, Fuller, Williams
Players that will hit once- Parker, Dorsett, Coleman

[Jigga94]

Thanks for that Pullo. Looks like most WR hit their first 1k in their 2nd or 3rd season... I'm still writing off 2015 guys completely and all but Fuller from 2016