- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.
As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?
- Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
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1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)
It's very possible I messed up somewhere
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