It's likely at least 2 more 1st round WR's from the 2015-2017 NFL draft classes will hit. But which ones?

[Plank]

Fuller with Watson is my most likely ..

Mike Williams with Rivers ..

[keebs3]

At this point I'm hoping for even one of them in team 1...
Though, now that I've given up all hope and dropped him last season I'm sure it will be Perriman, somehow. Or Treadwell if he doesn't make my cut.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Excellent point. I don't understand some of the odds people are placing.

Baseline was 35% based on DD's analysis. Therefore, a guy drafted last year, but not having done anything to increase or decrease that number, such as Williams or Ross, would largely remain at that point. Guys moved up or down based on what they've done since being drafted.

Yes I understand that. I just disagree with some of what I've seen is all. Coleman at 10% chance of hitting 1000 once and 0% chance of hitting it twice, for instance. The forum only thrives due to differing opinions, though.

Have to agree with all of the above. Are we really saying, and supporting the notion that Coleman has a 0% chance of having two 1,000 yard seasons for his career based on what we've seen so far? I think that's just putting a little too much faith in the numbers. Yes they have their place, but I'll pick and choose where it's applicable for my teams. And FWIW, I don't own any Coleman shares.

[Gtdano_14]

And FWIW, I don't own any Coleman shares.

How dare you promote a player not on your roster(s). Blasphemy!

[ArrylT]

And FWIW, I don't own any Coleman shares.

How dare you promote a player not on your roster(s). Blasphemy!

But with MFL down it was the perfect crime! By the time MFL is back up again the crime will be forgotten and he would have gotten away scot free save for your heroic efforts!

[Gtdano_14]

And FWIW, I don't own any Coleman shares.

How dare you promote a player not on your roster(s). Blasphemy!

But with MFL down it was the perfect crime! By the time MFL is back up again the crime will be forgotten and he would have gotten away scot free save for your heroic efforts!

He was totally in the clear until he Plaxico Burress'd himself!

[stoneghost28]

I did a little research on WR's taken in the 1st round of NFL drafts. I defined a "hit" as a WR having 2+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

- Only 24 of 66 WR's drafted from 1998-2015 were considered hits, so about a 36% hit rate on average of getting what we would deem a valuable WR over multiple seasons.
- The worst 3-year stretch during that span was 3 out of 13 for a 23% hit rate. (Edit: there is a 3 of 14 stretch for 21%, nonetheless)
- The recent receiving classes (2015-2017) have only given us 1 hit (Cooper) in 13 so far for an 8% hit rate.

As you can see the recent hit rates are not normal (as to be expected as not much time has passed), and while possible it seems unlikely the 7-8% hit rate will stand the test of time. If we are to assume things will trend back to the mean, that means an additional 2-4 more WR's aside from Cooper will be hits from the 2015-2017 draft classes (resulting in a hit rate of anywhere between 23%-38%). I know it's easy to simply write them all off as busts but odds are at least 2 of them will gain a lot of value soon. I'd probably choose Parker, Doctson, and Davis... just always liked them as players. I'm curious though, who are YOUR picks to bust out of the slump?

• Kevin White
  DeVante Parker
  Nelson Agholor
  Breshad Perriman
  Phillip Dorsett
  Corey Coleman
  Will Fuller
  Josh Doctson
  Laquon Treadwell
  Corey Davis
  Mike Williams
  John Ross

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1998 – 1 of 3 (Moss)
1999 – 2 of 3 (Holt and Boston)
2000 – 1 of 5 (Burress)
2001 – 2 of 6 (Santana Moss and Wayne)
2002 – 1 of 3 (Javon Walker)
2003 – 1 of 3 (Andre Johnson)
2004 – 2 of 7 (Lee Evans, Larry Fitzgerald)
2005 – 1 of 6 (Roddy White)
2006 – 0 for 1
2007 – 2 for 6 (Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe)
2008 – None drafted in the 1st
2009 – 3 of 6 (Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks)
2010 – 2 for 2 (DT, Dez)
2011 – 2 for 3 (AJG, Julio)
2012 – 0 for 4
2013 – 1 for 3 (Hopkins)
2014 – 3 for 5 (Evans, OBJ, Cooks)

It's very possible I messed up somewhere

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Tier 1: Likely immediate returns, and a long term hit:

1. Corey Davis: Most upside, and best chance to me to live up to it.
2. Will Fuller: If he's healthy, he's a top 20-30 WR for me.
3. Corey Coleman: Depends entirely on the pecking order amongst the WR's, but I like Coleman as the #2 if the Browns hadn't gotten Landry.
4. N. Agholor: he already kind of broke out in '17, kicking myself as I had him in a lot of places in '16, and gave up in '17, a reminder to give WR's the traditional 3 year window because it's an accurate traditional read on the position (So I'm paying attention to the '16 guys this year).
5. D. Parker: I think a lot of my teams are going to end up losing big or winning big on this bet, although it was a sunk cost years ago.

Tier 2: I expect them to be successful, but it may take another 1-2 years for it to really pay off.

6. Mike Williams: Normally I'd rank him ahead of Parker, but I suspect Parker will pay off sooner, Williams still has to deal with a giant pile of other passing options in San Diego and the likely retirement of Rivers in a year or two.
7. J. Doctson: Last season shook my confidence in him. Definitely had some splash plays, but also showed an alarming capacity for drops that he didn't have in college. With Alex Smith in town, he may continue to develop, but the numbers will not be great because Alex Smith is Alex Smith.
8. L. Treadwell: I'm waiting out the contract. Have been speculating on him in leagues, having him as an add on in trades whenever possible because I believe he's a legit size weapon for offenses, but I don't think it's gonna happen in Minnesota. Eagerly awaiting him moving on from Minnesota in the spring of '20. A long time to wait, but since I didn't draft him anywhere in 2016, it's not a major sunk cost for me beyond roster space being limited while I wait.
9. John Ross: 2017 was a total disaster. No doubt. His injury history is also well and truly horrific. But I do believe in his talent as a player IF and that's a huge if, he can stay healthy.

Tier 3: A slight Chance
10. Kevin White: I'm not sure if the Bears have officially moved on from him or from Meredith or from both of them. His injuries have been bizarre, his confidence in himself supposedly shaken, but if he can stay healthy, 2016 suggested he might be able to put up a 50 or more catch season with some volume. the question is if anyone's going to give him "opportunity" going forward. That's a huge question.


Busts:

1. Phillip Dorsett: It's over.
2. B. Perriman: It's really over.

[Bot101]

Im a big Coleman believer. Whenever I have watched him play he stands out. Yes the drops are a concern. But his athleticism and good route running impress the heck out of me. Watch his performance vs THE Ramsey last season. Looked to me like he was dog walking Ramsey all day. You could see Ramsey's frustration trying to cover Coleman. If Kizer had'nt sailed several passes that were uncatchable than Coleman could have had a huge game. The year before vs the Ravens when he torched the defense for 2 TDs before McCown got hurt was another example.

[Valhalla]

Im a big Coleman believer. Whenever I have watched him play he stands out. Yes the drops are a concern. But his athleticism and good route running impress the heck out of me. Watch his performance vs THE Ramsey last season. Looked to me like he was dog walking Ramsey all day. You could see Ramsey's frustration trying to cover Coleman. If Kizer had'nt sailed several passes that were uncatchable than Coleman could have had a huge game. The year before vs the Ravens when he torched the defense for 2 TDs before McCown got hurt was another example.

[btv802]

(looks at roster)

Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross

I might have way too much stock in this group of receivers

P.S. Shout out for the Tyler Lockett breakout from 2015 class!

[ArrylT]

So how do we feel about this post-draft with all the WR landings? And 2 new 1st round WRs in 2018.

[Shoreline Steamers]

How dare you promote a player not on your roster(s). Blasphemy!

But with MFL down it was the perfect crime! By the time MFL is back up again the crime will be forgotten and he would have gotten away scot free save for your heroic efforts!

He was totally in the clear until he Plaxico Burress'd himself!

Should have used a holster, and not my undies.

Live and learn!

[ArrylT]

Now that the NFL Draft is (well) over and OTAs and such have gotten underway - just curious if anyone has changed their opinion for the better or worse on any of the WRs listed.

I am going to guess that Miller landing in Chicago means more owners are going to be skeptical on Whites odds.

[Servo]

The minute that John Fox was fired, to me it signaled trouble for Kevin White but it was also the best thing for the franchise.

Not only does Nagy not have any connection to him but brought in Robinson, Miller, Burton + Gabriel. White will really have to show out and stay on the darn field to think about carving a role in this offense.

[jetsfan5757]

The minute that John Fox was fired, to me it signaled trouble for Kevin White but it was also the best thing for the franchise.

Not only does Nagy not have any connection to him but brought in Robinson, Miller, Burton + Gabriel. White will really have to show out and stay on the darn field to think about carving a role in this offense.

What a colossal bust White was! He was injured heading into our rookie auction and I got him for practically nothing. I remember being so excited about his future... I bailed after the second injury, so I have no stake in him anymore, but what a shame...