non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby Space Cowboy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:26 am

Gates is on his way out and Mike Williams I don't see much of a future for. It's gonna be a longer wait than I had hoped but I still like the talent.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby btv802 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:48 am

bsp27 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:18 am
The chargers clearly value him extremely highly, they placed a second round (!) tender on him, even after just drafting Mike Williams. I cam comfortably say he is better than Mike Williams.
Again I like Tyrell, but lets not get carried away with what the 2nd round tender really means. While it does mean that the Chargers obviously want to keep him around, my understanding is that if nobody makes an offer for Tyrell it means the Chargers are paying him less than $3 million this year. Not sure this is like a big flashing neon sign that Mike Williams is a bust or that the Chargers view Tyrell as the future right now. If that was true they'd be locking him up to a long term deal.

For me it seems like the unbiased and neutral way to view the 2nd round tender is that it just seems like a smart move for the Chargers considering injury history of Keenan and MW. If you are cheerleading for either TW or MW, that's kind of a separate discussion.
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QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota, R. Tannehill
RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, E. McGuire, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: E. Ebron, D. Njoku, J. Smith
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby Space Cowboy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:02 am

He posted 40-661-3 on just 65 targets. Factor in 130 targets and those are some impressive #'s.

People are still attached to the fact he was an UDFA. He was awesome in 2016, he, Allen and Benjamin make a nice trio. I never got the MW pick.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby btv802 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:06 am

Space Cowboy wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:02 am
I never got the MW pick.
For the Chargers the MW pick said, "in our opinion this is the best player available". Plain and simple.
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RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, E. McGuire, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: E. Ebron, D. Njoku, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:08 am

hjernazian wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:45 am
I’m also thinking life-after Rivers. High probably of them going into a rebuilding mode, and plain sucking at QB for a while, even if Mike is a giant bust and TWill gets Number 2 duties. He seems like a nice dart throw to have at the end of the bench, maybe for a future 3rd-4th rounder. Our waiver wire is also nice and loaded with guys like Ekeler and Clement (currently adds are closed).
Meh. Life after Rivers probably isn't until 2020 at the earliest. I'm not holding a boom/bust WR4 for 2 years. I'd sell Tyrell Williams for a mid/late 2nd or better.
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:31 am

Space Cowboy wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:02 am
He posted 40-661-3 on just 65 targets. Factor in 130 targets and those are some impressive #'s.

People are still attached to the fact he was an UDFA. He was awesome in 2016, he, Allen and Benjamin make a nice trio. I never got the MW pick.
This is the problem with being undrafted, whether you want to believe it or not, and whether it's right or not, doesn't really matter. When you're undrafted, the road becomes harder and longer to be successful. That's why the # of successful undrafted WR's is very small. Tyrell Williams will never see 130 targets again with the current Chargers roster. As long as Mike Williams is healthy, he will continue to get opportunity after opportunity to play ahead of TW. He will always be behind Keenan Allen, MW, and then there's also Hunter Henry. Tyrell was an obvious sell after 2016, because betting on a player with that resume is always foolish. Same thing happened to Willie Snead. And now we see the demise of Cam Meredith. Do not bet on undrafted WR's for the long-term. So yes people should hold the UDFA fact against him.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby btv802 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:36 am

Miles Austin, Wayne Chrebet, Wes Welker, Rod Smith & Victor Cruz. In no particular order, those are the most succesful UDFA WRs of all time based on most lists I see out there. The odds are def not tilted in their favor.
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QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota, R. Tannehill
RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, E. McGuire, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: E. Ebron, D. Njoku, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
2019: 1st, 2nd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:44 am

Doug Baldwin as well. Not coincidentally, IMO, most of these guys were tied to historically proven QB's as well. It usually takes a perfect storm for it to come together. Welker for sure.

2016 was Tyrell's perfect storm.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby mullmania » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:56 pm

Sold him and hopeful very late first, 20 team league so it could be like pick 16 overall or something, for Jordy Nelson and a 2nd right before GB released him.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby jtd1387 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:15 pm

Space Cowboy wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:02 am
He posted 40-661-3 on just 65 targets. Factor in 130 targets and those are some impressive #'s.

People are still attached to the fact he was an UDFA. He was awesome in 2016, he, Allen and Benjamin make a nice trio. I never got the MW pick.
Hey I've been high on Tyrell since he came into the league. I had him stashed on multiple teams at the end of his rookie year, and I had really high hopes for him going into last season. But saying he'd be better with more targets misses the fact that he continued to make a ton of mental errors last season that killed drives for the Chargers. That's why his targets dropped so quickly after starting the season with a healthy target pace.
If he were better, he'd get more targets. Williams was still extremely raw least year, and I'm not sure he's going to get enough opportunity to develop as much as he needs to (partly because he wasn't a big investment for his NFL team).
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby jtd1387 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:20 pm

btv802 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:48 am
bsp27 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:18 am
The chargers clearly value him extremely highly, they placed a second round (!) tender on him, even after just drafting Mike Williams. I cam comfortably say he is better than Mike Williams.
Again I like Tyrell, but lets not get carried away with what the 2nd round tender really means. While it does mean that the Chargers obviously want to keep him around, my understanding is that if nobody makes an offer for Tyrell it means the Chargers are paying him less than $3 million this year. Not sure this is like a big flashing neon sign that Mike Williams is a bust or that the Chargers view Tyrell as the future right now. If that was true they'd be locking him up to a long term deal.

For me it seems like the unbiased and neutral way to view the 2nd round tender is that it just seems like a smart move for the Chargers considering injury history of Keenan and MW. If you are cheerleading for either TW or MW, that's kind of a separate discussion.
Right, the 2nd round tender costs about $1m more than the original round tender. They basically paid an extra $1m to make sure he couldn't be signed away without the Chargers getting something. It shows they wanted to keep him (or at least not lose him for nothing), but I wouldn't say it shows they value him extremely high.
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W: OBJ, AR15, Cooks, Fuller, Mike Williams, John Ross, R. Anderson, T. Taylor, DJax, Tyrell Williams
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby bsp27 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:38 pm

btv802 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:48 am
bsp27 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:18 am
The chargers clearly value him extremely highly, they placed a second round (!) tender on him, even after just drafting Mike Williams. I cam comfortably say he is better than Mike Williams.
Again I like Tyrell, but lets not get carried away with what the 2nd round tender really means. While it does mean that the Chargers obviously want to keep him around, my understanding is that if nobody makes an offer for Tyrell it means the Chargers are paying him less than $3 million this year. Not sure this is like a big flashing neon sign that Mike Williams is a bust or that the Chargers view Tyrell as the future right now. If that was true they'd be locking him up to a long term deal.

For me it seems like the unbiased and neutral way to view the 2nd round tender is that it just seems like a smart move for the Chargers considering injury history of Keenan and MW. If you are cheerleading for either TW or MW, that's kind of a separate discussion.
Yeah I agree.

But in terms of Mike Williams vs Tyrell, I have to have Tyrell above because he has better athleticism and has been efficient and productive in the NFL.
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:41 pm

Space Cowboy wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:02 am
He posted 40-661-3 on just 65 targets. Factor in 130 targets and those are some impressive #'s.

People are still attached to the fact he was an UDFA. He was awesome in 2016, he, Allen and Benjamin make a nice trio. I never got the MW pick.
Yep, except he didn't. If he got open enough or was good enough to warrant those targets I'm sure Rivers would have made it happen. He's a big play receiver that doesn't have a complete game. The efficiency on a small sample size multiplied very rarely works in reality.

Agree with the MW pick. He's a bust IMO, and unfortunately they are going to give him every opportunity at the expense of Tyrell. My buddy, a big Chargers fan, cursed the pick at the time, thought Hooker was the pick. Imagine him on that D right now.
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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby cazzie33 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:58 am

Isaiah Crowell and CJA were in the same situation. Both signed with their original teams (Denver matching Miami offer) and it didn't secure them any long term commitment. Crowell is gone and Elway is wishy washy about retaining Anderson. So any reading into the Chargers "commitment" or being really determined to keep Tyrell is just wishful thinking. In reality it's more likely an insurance policy to recoup something if he leaves or retain his services fairly cheap in case of injury to M. Williams or Keenan.

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Re: non-sexy topic: Tyrell Williams

Postby btv802 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:07 am

bsp27 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:38 pm
But in terms of Mike Williams vs Tyrell, I have to have Tyrell above because he has better athleticism and has been efficient and productive in the NFL.
That's all good it's your personal opinion, no issue with that.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 2 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota, R. Tannehill
RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, E. McGuire, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: E. Ebron, D. Njoku, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
2019: 1st, 2nd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


(bold green indicates projected '18-19 seasonal starters and ownership of my own future picks)


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