Dynasty Startup with Devy Players.

[Prickler]

I have a dynasty super flex startup auction approaching in the next few weeks and I'm trying to get a grasp on the value of devy players. I have a reasonable grasp on the value of 1st round rookie picks in a standard startup and the % chance that they will become fantasy relevant. On the other hand I have to admit my ignorance when it comes to predicting devy player success.

For the sake of simplicity, lets just say a 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league has a 50% chance at a top 24 season at their position. What is the chance a top 12 devy pick has a chance at producing the same numbers?

For people that have experience with devy leagues, do you find devy players to be under or over valued in startup drafts? N'keal Harry is #10 in the DLF cornerstone rankings, ahead of players like McCaffrey, Sutton, and Chubb. Does that make him a value? Is it higher risk, higher reward?

Mostly looking to jump start a discussion among experienced devy players and get some opinions. Thanks in advance for any opinions or insight you have to offer.

[Go Bucks]

Devy is about twice the risk of rookie. So if you're saying 50% for rookie, then it's 25% for devy. And the further out from joining the NFL they are, the higher the risk. Especially for RB's, as injuries can cripple their value (Marcus Lattimore from South Carolina for example). There will usually be 2 owners who gobble up devies, and 2-3 who don't draft any. The other 7-8 owners will take them in moderation. Don't know how auction changes things, as all my startup drafts have been serpentine. Your strategy depends on how patient you can be. If your goal isn't to win it all in year 1 or 2, then it's fine to loadup on the college guys.