2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby Bot101 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:52 pm

hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
Hot take.

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby jman3134 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:55 pm

hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
100% agree. Best receiver in the class imo.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby hjernazian » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:53 pm

jman3134 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:55 pm
hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
100% agree. Best receiver in the class imo.
People are down on WR's this year after an underwhelming class last year, yet they refuse to see one common mistake:

We make adjustments for RB expectations due to the evolution of the game, i.e. targetting more pass-catching RBs to fit into a more uptempo scheme in today's NFL, yet, we continue to use the same variables in predicting WR success: the big, tall, dominating WR's like a Julio or Mike Evans. Those players come along very so often, so when we try to predict the next Julio Jones, we come across astronomically low hit rates. This fallacy, imo, accounts for why a player like C. Sutton (still great) is seen as the #1 favorite, yet lacks clear true dominant WR1 intangibles, i.e. hands.

When we adjust this variable, and redefine WR expectations like we do with RBs, we can see a lot of guys being solid hits. This explains why a player like Cooper Kupp, drafted mid-to-late second round, was such a success last year. Guys like Moore, Gallup, Kirk, etc. are the next wave of dominant WR's, with a player of Mike Evans or Julio build hitting once every several years.

I'm personally very aggressive in my draft strategy, but even those odds are too rich for my blood.

As a side - my friend's podcast on FakePigskin Dynasty Zone breaks this down to the minutia. It's pretty much agreed that the main reason Sutton is favored so heavily as the consensus #1 is because of his build.

Just my 2 cents.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:58 pm

hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
I mean, he's certainly a nice WR, but I can't see him being over Ridley, Sutton, Moore, or Washington
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby hjernazian » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:06 am

lukkynumber13 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:58 pm
hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
I mean, he's certainly a nice WR, but I can't see him being over Ridley, Sutton, Moore, or Washington
Not Moore, and maybe not Sutton, but why not over the other two? The group all has ? marks
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 am

hjernazian wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:06 am
lukkynumber13 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:58 pm
hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
I mean, he's certainly a nice WR, but I can't see him being over Ridley, Sutton, Moore, or Washington
Not Moore, and maybe not Sutton, but why not over the other two? The group all has ? marks
What about Ridley? What does Gallup bring that Ridley doesn't?

And please don't misunderstand me, I do like Gallup - just not as a 1st tier guy. He's alongside ESB, Kirk, & Pettis for me.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby hjernazian » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:22 am

lukkynumber13 wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 am
hjernazian wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:06 am
lukkynumber13 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:58 pm I mean, he's certainly a nice WR, but I can't see him being over Ridley, Sutton, Moore, or Washington
Not Moore, and maybe not Sutton, but why not over the other two? The group all has ? marks
What about Ridley? What does Gallup bring that Ridley doesn't?

And please don't misunderstand me, I do like Gallup - just not as a 1st tier guy. He's alongside ESB, Kirk, & Pettis for me.
I guess reading the DLF article about his age and % of hits for a 23 year old WR deter me. I’m not a math guy, so for it to make an impact on me was surprising. With that said, if he goes 19th to the Cowboys and Dez is released, he may shoot up to the WR1.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby AussieMate » Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:46 am

hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:53 pm
jman3134 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:55 pm
hjernazian wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:30 am i'm very, very surpised how quiet it has been around Gallup. It's as if people don't realize he has been consistently an early second round pick on DLF, yet, crickets. Depending on landing spot, he may be my #2 WR in this class only after DJ Moore.
100% agree. Best receiver in the class imo.
People are down on WR's this year after an underwhelming class last year, yet they refuse to see one common mistake:

We make adjustments for RB expectations due to the evolution of the game, i.e. targetting more pass-catching RBs to fit into a more uptempo scheme in today's NFL, yet, we continue to use the same variables in predicting WR success: the big, tall, dominating WR's like a Julio or Mike Evans. Those players come along very so often, so when we try to predict the next Julio Jones, we come across astronomically low hit rates. This fallacy, imo, accounts for why a player like C. Sutton (still great) is seen as the #1 favorite, yet lacks clear true dominant WR1 intangibles, i.e. hands.

When we adjust this variable, and redefine WR expectations like we do with RBs, we can see a lot of guys being solid hits. This explains why a player like Cooper Kupp, drafted mid-to-late second round, was such a success last year. Guys like Moore, Gallup, Kirk, etc. are the next wave of dominant WR's, with a player of Mike Evans or Julio build hitting once every several years.

I'm personally very aggressive in my draft strategy, but even those odds are too rich for my blood.

As a side - my friend's podcast on FakePigskin Dynasty Zone breaks this down to the minutia. It's pretty much agreed that the main reason Sutton is favored so heavily as the consensus #1 is because of his build.

Just my 2 cents.
I'm down on the wrs because they are average. I also think the RBS will dissappoint alot peoples expectations, I'm excited for the was though

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby Lotto4Life » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:07 am

AussieMate wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:46 amI'm excited for the was though
Excited for the? Not sure which position this auto-corrected for.

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby Defender » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:51 am

Lotto4Life wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:07 am
AussieMate wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:46 amI'm excited for the was though
Excited for the? Not sure which position this auto-corrected for.
WRs?
The standard is the standard.

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby Ruggenater » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:46 am

Defender wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:51 am
Lotto4Life wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:07 am
AussieMate wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:46 amI'm excited for the was though
Excited for the? Not sure which position this auto-corrected for.
WRs?
Can't be excited for the WRs if he's down on the WRs. I'm thinking QBs.
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby ArrylT » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:56 pm

Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby jman3134 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:34 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 am
hjernazian wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:06 am
lukkynumber13 wrote: Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:58 pm I mean, he's certainly a nice WR, but I can't see him being over Ridley, Sutton, Moore, or Washington
Not Moore, and maybe not Sutton, but why not over the other two? The group all has ? marks
What about Ridley? What does Gallup bring that Ridley doesn't?

And please don't misunderstand me, I do like Gallup - just not as a 1st tier guy. He's alongside ESB, Kirk, & Pettis for me.

Moore is in a class of his own as an athlete, but Gallup is on par with the others in terms of athleticism. He tested worse than he is capable of at the combine. At his pro day, his 40 time was more in line with tier one class. He's on par with vertical jump, broad jump etc. Watching tape he's a good receiver on jump/50 50 balls and appears to have a nose for the ball. He gets separation. I liked his route running from what I saw at the senior bowl and his big play potential. He's my top receiver in the class, but to each his own. Still new to this.

He appeared to have instant chemistry with some of the senior bowl qbs, which to me was impressive and indicates that he maybe didn't have as much to work with at Colorado st as some of the other guys, but may be more talented.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:58 pm

jman3134 wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:34 pm Moore is in a class of his own as an athlete, but Gallup is on par with the others in terms of athleticism. He tested worse than he is capable of at the combine. At his pro day, his 40 time was more in line with tier one class. He's on par with vertical jump, broad jump etc. Watching tape he's a good receiver on jump/50 50 balls and appears to have a nose for the ball. He gets separation. I liked his route running from what I saw at the senior bowl and his big play potential. He's my top receiver in the class, but to each his own. Still new to this.

He appeared to have instant chemistry with some of the senior bowl qbs, which to me was impressive and indicates that he maybe didn't have as much to work with at Colorado st as some of the other guys, but may be more talented.
Don't dislike the guy, but nearly every player's "Pro Day" performance is better than their combine numbers so I put very little stock in those metrics. But that's me.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: 2018 NFL Draft Discussion / News Thread

Postby jman3134 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:11 am

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:58 pm
jman3134 wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:34 pm Moore is in a class of his own as an athlete, but Gallup is on par with the others in terms of athleticism. He tested worse than he is capable of at the combine. At his pro day, his 40 time was more in line with tier one class. He's on par with vertical jump, broad jump etc. Watching tape he's a good receiver on jump/50 50 balls and appears to have a nose for the ball. He gets separation. I liked his route running from what I saw at the senior bowl and his big play potential. He's my top receiver in the class, but to each his own. Still new to this.

He appeared to have instant chemistry with some of the senior bowl qbs, which to me was impressive and indicates that he maybe didn't have as much to work with at Colorado st as some of the other guys, but may be more talented.
Don't dislike the guy, but nearly every player's "Pro Day" performance is better than their combine numbers so I put very little stock in those metrics. But that's me.
I put very little stock in these metrics altogether. I fell in love with his senior bowl performance and like his tape.

Good day, bad day, who knows what factors play for the combine vs pro day? He ran a handtimed 4.45 vs a more-than-respectable 4.51 at the combine. Better than Sutton, not Ridley. Are you implying he isn't on these guys' tier athletically? I don't see it.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D


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