Jordan Matthews???

[FantasyFreak]

He wasn’t already basically free?

No. I wouldn't sell for anything less than a 2nd. Gut had a strong rookie year, and a good SB as a rookie. Brady depended on him in the SB in the 4th quarter, too vs ATL. 5 catches in the 4th. A guy that plays like that has a shot to get more targets this year after that. Unfortunate he lost a season, but I'm not selling for a 3rd. I'd prefer to have him over JMatt at this point, actually. I have a feeling JMatt could be out of the league in 2 years.

That’s interesting. I think he was in the mid-late 2nd range in rookie drafts coming out of Georgia because of health concerns related to his knee and he’s already missed an entire season because of it. Guy is talented no doubt but he hasn’t put much down on paper in the NFL and the knee issue is scary. Really doubt that if you put Mitchell on your trade bait in your league that people would be chomping at the bit to pay your price.

I’m not pretending like perception of JMatt is all that much different but at least he’s put down a few productive and healthy seasons on paper. Mitchell hasn’t done that yet and they are closer in age than you might realize.

Oh, I understand everything you are saying. I just see getting some random 3rd as a lateral move, so there is no point. I'd gladly take a 2nd, but I generally don't make trades I consider lateral moves, that's all. The knee thing is concerning for both, but what worries me about JMatt is that even despite having that production, nobody wanted him, until the Patriots got desperate because they traded Cooks, so they needed to fill a roster spot. That gives me more concern than Mitchell, in terms of the injury thing.

[btv802]

No. I wouldn't sell for anything less than a 2nd. Gut had a strong rookie year, and a good SB as a rookie. Brady depended on him in the SB in the 4th quarter, too vs ATL. 5 catches in the 4th. A guy that plays like that has a shot to get more targets this year after that. Unfortunate he lost a season, but I'm not selling for a 3rd. I'd prefer to have him over JMatt at this point, actually. I have a feeling JMatt could be out of the league in 2 years.

That’s interesting. I think he was in the mid-late 2nd range in rookie drafts coming out of Georgia because of health concerns related to his knee and he’s already missed an entire season because of it. Guy is talented no doubt but he hasn’t put much down on paper in the NFL and the knee issue is scary. Really doubt that if you put Mitchell on your trade bait in your league that people would be chomping at the bit to pay your price.

I’m not pretending like perception of JMatt is all that much different but at least he’s put down a few productive and healthy seasons on paper. Mitchell hasn’t done that yet and they are closer in age than you might realize.

Oh, I understand everything you are saying. I just see getting some random 3rd as a lateral move, so there is no point. I'd gladly take a 2nd, but I generally don't make trades I consider lateral moves, that's all. The knee thing is concerning for both, but what worries me about JMatt is that even despite having that production, nobody wanted him, until the Patriots got desperate because they traded Cooks, so they needed to fill a roster spot. That gives me more concern than Mitchell, in terms of the injury thing.

That’s all fair. We’ve now got Matthews, Mitchell, Dorsett, Britt and Patterson battling for that 3rd WR role. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

[btv802]

Just another JMatt thought. For as much as he gets busted on for drops, his catch rate is very respectable in respect to his peers over the past four years.

[ArrylT]

Man I know each of those players have their detractors, because from a fantasy perspective its grim but thats a pretty stacked WR chart imho from a football talent perspective, and the scary part is only Mitchell was drafted, the rest have all been added in the past year. The Patriots continue to be great at finding ways to add value at low cost especially knowing the attrition rate in-season.

How much did this cost them vs. the $$ Miami had to toss at Amendola and Wilson to replace Landry.

[Valhalla]

... nobody wanted him, until the Patriots got desperate because they traded Cooks, so they needed to fill a roster spot...

Didn’t they bring in Matthews for a workout right before the Cooks trade? Maybe they brought him in to check him out prior to putting Cooks on the table, and Cooks became easier to sell knowing Matthews was ready to sign. Maybe he was in their plans prior to the trade, and so it wasn’t exactly a desperation signing. Can anyone point to an instance of Belichick trading someone away with no plan...other than the nearly forced upon him Garoppolo trade?

[ericanadian]

... nobody wanted him, until the Patriots got desperate because they traded Cooks, so they needed to fill a roster spot...

Didn’t they bring in Matthews for a workout right before the Cooks trade? Maybe they brought him in to check him out prior to putting Cooks on the table, and Cooks became easier to sell knowing Matthews was ready to sign. Maybe he was in their plans prior to the trade, and so it wasn’t exactly a desperation signing. Can anyone point to an instance of Belichick trading someone away with no plan...other than the nearly forced upon him Garoppolo trade?

Agree with this. Matthews & Cooks are totally different players.. My guess is Matthews is more to replace Amendola and Belichick wasn't willing to spend much on the role. When Matthews price came down, a deal was made.

[Pullo Vision]

Just another JMatt thought. For as much as he gets busted on for drops, his catch rate is very respectable in respect to his peers over the past four years.

interesting. Curious what that would look like as a function of average depth of target, as well as as a function of slot snap percentage.

[Phaded]

I don't so much think Jordan Matthews is there to replace Edelman and I believe Edelman will still have a significant role..
I also do not think it's to replace Cooks - very different receivers.
I think it's more to replace Danny Amendola than anything; which I'm surprised most people haven't mentioned.

The Pats work the middle of the field a lot and that is the type Matthews is. Now they'll have Edelman, Matthews & Gronk all as capable guys to work the middle. It's also why they re-signed Burkhead, he's a good receiving back who can work the middle. This leaves Hogan and Mitchell(maybe?) to work the outside.

The Pats typically work with the idea that the majority of their roster is expendable. I would be surprised if Matthews is a Pat after this year.

With that said - if you can get him super cheap, worth a flier; but I wouldn't pay much of relevance.
On a random note; a trade went down in one of my leagues this morning - Matthews for Abdullah straight up. So, his value isn't that high - if you believe in him.

[FantasyFreak]

... nobody wanted him, until the Patriots got desperate because they traded Cooks, so they needed to fill a roster spot...

Didn’t they bring in Matthews for a workout right before the Cooks trade? Maybe they brought him in to check him out prior to putting Cooks on the table, and Cooks became easier to sell knowing Matthews was ready to sign. Maybe he was in their plans prior to the trade, and so it wasn’t exactly a desperation signing. Can anyone point to an instance of Belichick trading someone away with no plan...other than the nearly forced upon him Garoppolo trade?

Agree with this. Matthews & Cooks are totally different players.. My guess is Matthews is more to replace Amendola and Belichick wasn't willing to spend much on the role. When Matthews price came down, a deal was made.

I don't think this had anything to do with it. If they were going to try and deal Cooks for a first, JMatt would not alter that reality at all. Can't imagine a reality where they were hinging the Cooks move on whether or not JMatt was OK health wise. Cooks deal had to do more with contract, and whether they wanted to resign him, I think. I think Cooks may have been brought in with Garappolo in mind as their QB of the future, and thing could have changed when he got traded, but that is speculation.

[Valhalla]

Didn’t they bring in Matthews for a workout right before the Cooks trade? Maybe they brought him in to check him out prior to putting Cooks on the table, and Cooks became easier to sell knowing Matthews was ready to sign. Maybe he was in their plans prior to the trade, and so it wasn’t exactly a desperation signing. Can anyone point to an instance of Belichick trading someone away with no plan...other than the nearly forced upon him Garoppolo trade?

Agree with this. Matthews & Cooks are totally different players.. My guess is Matthews is more to replace Amendola and Belichick wasn't willing to spend much on the role. When Matthews price came down, a deal was made.

I don't think this had anything to do with it. If they were going to try and deal Cooks for a first, JMatt would not alter that reality at all. Can't imagine a reality where they were hinging the Cooks move on whether or not JMatt was OK health wise. Cooks deal had to do more with contract, and whether they wanted to resign him, I think. I think Cooks may have been brought in with Garappolo in mind as their QB of the future, and thing could have changed when he got traded, but that is speculation.

I’ve had the same thought process around Cooks. I think Kraft probably had to pick sides (for the path into the future) between a GOAT QB and the fanbase behind him, and the coach pushing to keep Garoppolo instead. When Bill’s plans were forced to change (bye bye Jimmy), then Cooks became less important.
I do believe knowing you can sign Matthews helps to trade a wr, though. They aren’t the same type of wr, but just knowing there is a high quality over the middle player for Brady helps in trading in Cooks for a more exchangeable currency.

[Jason3123]

You guys are wasting your time guessing what Belichick is going to do with J-Matt.

[whodunnit]

You guys are wasting your time guessing what Belichick is going to do with J-Matt.

agreed

[Jfever]

Not really. His relocation from Buffalo to NE does have an impact on his potential fantasy poduction ceiling, his floor, and the perceved change in fantasy value. But, I do agree that predicting Belichick is historically a pain in the @zz.

Im betting he catches 60 plus balls though. I think, if healthy, jmatts strengths will fit nicely with NE's offense, and I think The Pat's are real good at finding good value and exploiting and putting to use, their players strengths.

[btv802]

interesting. Curious what that would look like as a function of average depth of target, as well as as a function of slot snap percentage.

Without digging into actual aDot numbers, it's safe to say it's not fair to compare JMatt to guys like Doug Baldwin, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, OBJ, AJG, etc...the guys demonstrating a relatively high catch rate paired with a high y/tgt. Those guys are catching a high percentage of their targets and accounting for a lot of yards in the process, most likely because their aDot is higher overall but I'd have to check to confirm.

But based on that idea, you can compare JMatt favorably to guys like Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, DT, Crabtree. JMatt outperformed a few of those guys substantially over the past four seasons he's been in the league with what I think most would agree was not good QB play. He also did it consistently at a much younger age than most while serving as his team's primary receiver for a decent chunk of his early career.

I'm obviously a JMatt fan and feel like his negative rep in the dynasty community has gone a little too far. People suggesting he's worth nothing and that he'll be out of the league, etc. So much recency bias loaded in to those takes in my opinion. While never the stud many believed him to be, JMatt performed like an above average young receiver in this league and if he proves he's healthy and gets back to doing what he's been capable of previously, he's so easily worth so much more than a 3rd round rookie pick.

[FantasyFreak]

interesting. Curious what that would look like as a function of average depth of target, as well as as a function of slot snap percentage.

Without digging into actual aDot numbers, it's safe to say it's not fair to compare JMatt to guys like Doug Baldwin, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, OBJ, AJG, etc...the guys demonstrating a relatively high catch rate paired with a high y/tgt. Those guys are catching a high percentage of their targets and accounting for a lot of yards in the process, most likely because their aDot is higher overall but I'd have to check to confirm.

But based on that idea, you can compare JMatt favorably to guys like Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, DT, Crabtree. JMatt outperformed a few of those guys substantially over the past four seasons he's been in the league with what I think most would agree was not good QB play and he did it at a much younger age than most.

I'm obviously a JMatt fan and feel like his negative rep in the dynasty community has gone a little too far. People suggesting he's worth nothing and that he'll be out of the league, etc. So much recency bias loaded in to those takes in my opinion. While never the stud many believed him to be, JMatt performed like an above average young receiver in this league and if he proves he's healthy and gets back to doing what he's been capable of previously, he's so easily worth so much more than a 3rd round rookie pick.

I think it has more due to his knee than his talent. There is clearly some major concerns about it from NFL teams.