Postby hjernazian » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:11 pm
ninotoreS wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:01 am
Mack wasn't terrible last year. Final grade of 73.4 by PFF. Not great, but not bad.
I don't believe he has the necessary pop in his pads to be a majority touch-share leadback in the NFL. Runs with okay pad-level but has little ferocity into contact, he'd much rather just bounce. He's a space-back only, by which I mean everything he legitimately does well, he does only in space. Thus while he could be fantasy valuable in the right scheme / offense, he doesn't have the skill-set to be more than a complementary piece in the real football context.
As of '17, Indy is not the right scheme or talented enough an offense to enable Mack to statistically overachieve. Even putting aside the base offensive-line's deficiencies, Indy was even worse at second-level blocking (25th) and in second-level / open-field yards (29th) last year than they were in adjusted line yards (18th). If there's gonna be an NFL offense that unlocks Mack as fantasy viable as a space-back, it absolutely needs to be an offense that's drastically better in those areas than Indy in 2017.
Mack isn't a rational dynasty buy or hold at this point in time. Indy has too many problems, too weak a roster to cast the die on players like Mack that need to be surrounded by talent to unlock his own talent. They're rebuilding under Ballard, and that means they're looking for legitimate foundation talent. Mack isn't that. Even if Indy doesn't splash for a Day 1 or early Day 2 RB this year, and thus Mack seems dynasty relevant for another season, it still probably won't amount to much statistically just as it didn't in '17, and we'll be right back here predicting Mack's imminent tumble on the depth-chart next off-season.
^this. Spot on analysis. Even if they don't touch a RB, he will lose you more weeks than he wins you in that offense next year. Plug him into an offense like ATL, NO, etc. and he is a solid weekly PPR play (at best). The best thing that could happen for Mack is that the Colts revamp their O line and plug in a plodding, non-passing catch back. What do you guys think would've happened to D. Sproles and the likes if they were worked into a bellcow role early in their career? I can answer that: You probably would have never heard of D. Sproles.
Team 1
Superflex, 1.0 point PPR
QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant
2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06
Team 2
Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI
QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott