Jerick McKinnon Thread

[Valhalla]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.

I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.

I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.

That’s fair, but do you believe the 49ers think the same way you do. If he tears his Achilles like Foreman did or tears his acl like cook, are the 49ers not going to spend a significant amount of draft capital or bring in a FA that will rival his role on the team. I can’t say for sure one way or the other, but given McKinnons unproven track record I think it’s likely they would. I’m curious what you think.

[ericanadian]

I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.

I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.

That’s fair, but do you believe the 49ers think the same way you do. If he tears his Achilles like Foreman did or tears his acl like cook, are the 49ers not going to spend a significant amount of draft capital or bring in a FA that will rival his role on the team. I can’t say for sure one way or the other, but given McKinnons unproven track record I think it’s likely they would. I’m curious what you think.

His cap impact suggests he's guaranteed at least two years on the roster. I think he'd have to look pretty bad prior to such an injury to completely eliminate himself from competing for the lead role in 2019. That said, an early injury would almost completely wipe out his value on a near permanent basis as owners can only be burned so many times before they just assume failure is inevitable.

How long do you think McKinnon would have to produce before he gained some value insulation?

[Valhalla]

I suppose if he got hurt they’d be forced to bring in a demarco Murray or freshly cut Jeremy Hill or something to get by, and when the next draft season rolled around, I’d expect them to get an update on his recovery status and if doing well they’d draft a mid-level talent, like a 3rd-5th round back, and he’d have his receiving back role still locked in at worst provide health. Even with a round 2 big compliment back, mckinnon would still get lots of receiving down work in a system that has used backs like that a fair amount. So some level of a safe floor even if injured, with a nice upside if he can stay healthy and get a lot of carry and scoring opportunity.

[nathanq42]

I suspect if McKinnon becomes a pillar of the 49ers new offensive unit he becomes instantly insulated. If he comes out of the gate on fire and wins the fans the 49ers will have to give him a decent leash. Especially because he got such a large contract the front office will do anything to validate it to the fans

[Accumen]

lol. Mckinnon = approximately 25+ touches per game next year, and for those of you skeptical of successful systems in 2018--Time to wake up. See, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics (under Brad Stevens). See, This most recent version of the Seahawk's "Legion of boom" and friends Defense, see, McVay in Los Angeles and Goff, and pleeeeese see, what Shanahan fixin to do with Mckinnon this year. Can't wait

[Bot101]

lol. Mckinnon = approximately 25+ touches per game next year, and for those of you skeptical of successful systems in 2018--Time to wake up. See, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics (under Brad Stevens). See, This most recent version of the Seahawk's "Legion of boom" and friends Defense, see, McVay in Los Angeles and Goff, and pleeeeese see, what Shanahan fixin to do with Mckinnon this year. Can't wait

McKinnon + 25+ touches per game = IR by week 6...

[nathanq42]

Yeah..... He is 215... Guys that get 25+ are dj, Gurley, bell, Zeke. All 225+ there is a reason RBs traditionally don't last long, they are cheap so they get ran into the ground and dumped on the side of the road when they have nothing left to give.

[Accumen]

Yeah..... He is 215... Guys that get 25+ are dj, Gurley, bell, Zeke. All 225+ there is a reason RBs traditionally don't last long, they are cheap so they get ran into the ground and dumped on the side of the road when they have nothing left to give.

Freeman is the same size, man

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Yeah..... He is 215...

209... at the combine at least...

[M-Dub]

Yeah..... He is 215... Guys that get 25+ are dj, Gurley, bell, Zeke. All 225+ there is a reason RBs traditionally don't last long, they are cheap so they get ran into the ground and dumped on the side of the road when they have nothing left to give.

Freeman is the same size, man

I’m about as big a McKinnon truther as you’ll find around here, and even I think the idea of McKinnon getting 25+ touches/game is simultaneously absurd and terrifying.

Freeman has averaged about 17.5 touches/game the past two seasons. Even in his “workhorse” season in 2015, he averaged 21 touches/game, and I suspect Shannahan realized (wisely) that that’s just not sustainable for a back his size.

I love McKinnon and fully expect him to be an RB1 this year barring injury, but projecting him for 25+ touches/game just shows a basic lack of understanding of the game of football. Only two RBs in the NFL averaged more than 25 touches/game last year: Bell and Zeke. I would bet way more than I can afford to lose that McKinnon is not joining that club in 2018.

[Bot101]

Yeah..... He is 215... Guys that get 25+ are dj, Gurley, bell, Zeke. All 225+ there is a reason RBs traditionally don't last long, they are cheap so they get ran into the ground and dumped on the side of the road when they have nothing left to give.

He is not even 215 lbs. He doesnt even look anywhere close to 215 lbs. A quick google search, Ive found 205, 205 and player profiler has him at 209. He is NOT feature back 25+ touches per game. And if I owned him, I wouldnt want that. I dont care whether or not hes great or flames out. If I were to bet, I would say hes going to be great for fantasy for the first half of the season, then tail off. Bookmark my comment and we can revisit it when the fantasy season ends.

[nathanq42]

Wow.. so I guess they updated his weight since last time I checked.. because I swear I was pumped for him getting this role on the 49ers because I swear he was listed at 215.... Bugger me... Ideally he will get 10-12 carries and 5-7 catches a week. Anything more is just too much for a back his size to handle tbh

[_yeti]

He also had 32 reps on the bench press at the combine, so let's not act like all guys his weight are created equal strength-wise. He may get hurt, it's football, everyone might get hurt!

As far as size and everyone needing him to have Zeke/Bell volume, I command all McKinnon haters to immediately sell their CMC shares right now

[psu007]

Personally I see his floor as what he did last year, or RB15 in my PPR league. For a guy that catches the ball well, he doesn't need to hit that 20 touch number, if he sticks around his average I'll be quite happy. In terms of rookie pick this year I'd take for him, it's around the 1.07 being my cutoff pick. I'm torn on RoJo and Penny compared to McKinnon.

I just look at Minnesota last year and it was all game plan specific. If it fit to grind out with Murray, that's what they did, and McKinnon just didn't get the ball as much, do you hold that against him? I don't see that problem with San Fran and think he'll always be factored into the game plan to some degree