Jerick McKinnon Thread

[Fezzik]

If he gets enough carries too and breaks a few runs for long gains or TDs, than he has an RB1 ceiling in PPR. My price tag on him is probably somewhere between 1.06 and 1.10, ironically enough about where Tevin Coleman is valued, because I view McKinnon's floor in SF as Coleman's RB22 finish in 2017.

I said this already early on in this thread; it really comes down to one thing: Either you believe in Shanahan, or you don't. I do.

To support your point (which I agree with) on JM's ceiling w/ Shanahan - In 2016, Devonta Freeman was the RB6, playing 16 games for Atlanta, averaging 17.5 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. Now they had an MVP season out of Matt Ryan and Freeman scored 13 combined touchdowns and it sure didn't hurt having Julio getting all the attention on the outside, but this is within the range of reasonable outcomes for McKinnon. He doesn't need to get 20-25 touches a game.

[Fezzik]

I'd like to go back to an earlier question posted in the thread - what does McKinnon have to do to make believers out of you? Directing this towards the non-believers. We get that he hasn't done enough yet for you. What does it take for you to be wrong? If he plays ___ games and averages __ ppr points per game for __ seasons, you'll be satisfied?

Like someone said, Lamar Miller in 4 seasons had 2 rb1 years and 2rb 2 years. That kind of production for the 1.06? Feel like I came out a winner if I traded for Miller pre Houston.

Houston Lamar Miller production would be great and would justify McKinnon's price. Not sure that happens, though.

That's fair. Nobody is sure, we're all gambling/guessing, and all the dialogue on this thread comes down to 'is JM a good bet to produce given his talent/contract/situation, and at what price is he worth the bet?'

In PPR, he was the RB15 last year (full season) and the RB9 (post Cooks injury weeks 5-16) last year, despite being in a timeshare.

"Well that only means he couldn't beat out Cook and Murray; they never wanted him to be the guy."
"Well now they want him to be the guy, they paid him a lot of money to be that."
"Well he's never done anything worth talking about. Can't you see that?"

People are emotionally invested in being 'right' about this guy not being good for some reason, and want to make whatever argument they can against him. I believe he will be successful this year, and honestly like to get some guys on record as to what would constitute success, b/c it seems a little bit like whatever he does won't be enough.

[James McGhee]

McKinnon truthers:

McKinnon haters:

No one's giving in. Time to let it rest until the season unfolds and we find out the truth.

Hopefully it's clear cut. Watch it be that he produces as a high end RB1 for 2/3s of the season but misses a decent chunk of time and both sides will be like and then it's all over again.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

McKinnon truthers:

McKinnon haters:

No one's giving in. Time to let it rest until the season unfolds and we find out the truth.

Hopefully it's clear cut. Watch it be that he produces as a high end RB1 for 2/3s of the season but misses a decent chunk of time and both sides will be like and then it's all over again.

The first will be when they draft another RB

[jman3134]

That would truly surprise me because I fully expect them to give Joe Williams a shot this coming year. Maybe get a veteran for the fourth string RB slot.

[Shoreline Steamers]

McKinnon truthers:

McKinnon haters:

No one's giving in. Time to let it rest until the season unfolds and we find out the truth.

Hopefully it's clear cut. Watch it be that he produces as a high end RB1 for 2/3s of the season but misses a decent chunk of time and both sides will be like and then it's all over again.

The first will be when they draft another RB

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

[Pullo Vision]

McKinnon truthers:

McKinnon haters:

No one's giving in. Time to let it rest until the season unfolds and we find out the truth.

Hopefully it's clear cut. Watch it be that he produces as a high end RB1 for 2/3s of the season but misses a decent chunk of time and both sides will be like and then it's all over again.

The first will be when they draft another RB

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

But it's not just RBs, though. It's any player who has a significant amount of their value locked in their situation/volume. Crowell and Duke Johnson are currently comfortably ahead of their depth chart mates, but what about guys like Doctson, Davante Parker, Garcon and Dez? They top their depth chart because of the weak competition. A rookie could, if given the opportunity, steal their lead role.

I'm neither a truther or hater of Jerrick- he's a role player, and he can be very effective in that role. Nothing more, nothing less.

[FantasyFreak]

The first will be when they draft another RB

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

But it's not just RBs, though. It's any player who has a significant amount of their value locked in their situation/volume. Crowell and Duke Johnson are currently comfortably ahead of their depth chart mates, but what about guys like Doctson, Davante Parker, Garcon and Dez? They top their depth chart because of the weak competition. A rookie could, if given the opportunity, steal their lead role.

I'm neither a truther or hater of Jerrick- he's a role player, and he can be very effective in that role. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ahead of Hyde? Also, I expect SF to draft a RB. Their is nobody behind McKinnon right now besides Williams and Breida, who aren't exactly supreme talents. Just because the 49ers will draft a RB doesn't change the fact that Shanahan will most likely use McKinnon quite regularily. McKinnon is going to get the opportunity, I think the major argument is what he does with it. That can be argued all the way until September, but we are all just going to have to wait and see.

[dynastyninja]

The first will be when they draft another RB

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

But it's not just RBs, though. It's any player who has a significant amount of their value locked in their situation/volume. Crowell and Duke Johnson are currently comfortably ahead of their depth chart mates, but what about guys like Doctson, Davante Parker, Garcon and Dez? They top their depth chart because of the weak competition. A rookie could, if given the opportunity, steal their lead role.

I'm neither a truther or hater of Jerrick- he's a role player, and he can be very effective in that role. Nothing more, nothing less.

Only reason Dez would lose his lead role would be Dallas drafting a receiver who meshes better with Dak. There's not a receiver in the class on Dez's level.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The first will be when they draft another RB

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

But it's not just RBs, though. It's any player who has a significant amount of their value locked in their situation/volume. Crowell and Duke Johnson are currently comfortably ahead of their depth chart mates, but what about guys like Doctson, Davante Parker, Garcon and Dez? They top their depth chart because of the weak competition. A rookie could, if given the opportunity, steal their lead role.

I'm neither a truther or hater of Jerrick- he's a role player, and he can be very effective in that role. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes, but RB's are generally thought of to have a more immediate impact, whereas WR's take longer to "take over" the competition. Or, at least it's the perception.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Only reason Dez would lose his lead role would be Dallas drafting a receiver who meshes better with Dak. There's not a receiver in the class on Dez's level.

Pretty much agree on both counts. I'm curious about how things would shake out should Dallas land Hurns. But in general (pre 2014) it was understood that rookie WR's don't generally dominate their first season in the league. That's why I didn't include the position in my earlier post.

As for McKinnon, agreed that he will definitely have a role, and likely a sizable one. It just remains to be seen who the 49'ers use to compliment his skill set. Breida and Williams are obviously first in line, but as others have stated San Fran is very likely to add to that position group. 3 RB's in camp just doesn't cut it.

[Pullo Vision]

So common with a lot of NFL situations. It's why I have learned a hard lesson over the years, post free-agency/pre-NFL Draft is the absolute worst time to buy RB's. Too much uncertainty, and risk of having your apple cart upset.

But it's not just RBs, though. It's any player who has a significant amount of their value locked in their situation/volume. Crowell and Duke Johnson are currently comfortably ahead of their depth chart mates, but what about guys like Doctson, Davante Parker, Garcon and Dez? They top their depth chart because of the weak competition. A rookie could, if given the opportunity, steal their lead role.
I'm neither a truther or hater of Jerrick- he's a role player, and he can be very effective in that role. Nothing more, nothing less.

Only reason Dez would lose his lead role would be Dallas drafting a receiver who meshes better with Dak. There's not a receiver in the class on Dez's level.

Which is very possible with the talk they'll shift from a "Romo-friendly offense" to a Dak friendly one. If I were involved in that, it'd be pouring over Prescott's college game tape to see what kind of receiver he works with best. There's been speculation he doesn't like to throw 50-50 balls, which is where Dez wins. That's aside from finding the right route combinations he likes.

[clarion contrarion]

dude made dewalkya wilson & fred ross viable against a bunch of future NFL corners in the SEC , I think this could be more of a dez problem than a dak problem.

[FantasyFreak]

dude made dewalkya wilson & fred ross viable against a bunch of future NFL corners in the SEC , I think this could be more of a dez problem than a dak problem.

That was my nickname for him, too. Should Simulcam him vs Orlando Brown and Rich Eisen.

[Cowboysfan33]

Only reason Dez would lose his lead role would be Dallas drafting a receiver who meshes better with Dak. There's not a receiver in the class on Dez's level.

Pretty much agree on both counts. I'm curious about how things would shake out should Dallas land Hurns. But in general (pre 2014) it was understood that rookie WR's don't generally dominate their first season in the league. That's why I didn't include the position in my earlier post


If they land Hurns, which I’m really hoping for, he will eat into both Williams and Beasley time. I actually think it will help Dez, as far as taking pressure off of him. It will take some receptions away but IRL, it will help him. They just re-signed Williams last off-season, so I doubt they would cut him but Beasley is going into his final year of his contract and for some of the fans, bloggers, etc that seem to blame pretty much everything on Dez, Williams and Beasley both had terrible seasons, imo. I know Hurns isn’t a superstar but he will help the Cowboys a lot, if they can get him signed.