Watkins to Chiefs

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Kaz
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Kaz » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm

I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.
QB: Ryan, Bridgewater
RB: McCoy, McKinnon, R.Jones, Lynch
WR: T.Hill, A.Rob, D.Adams, DT, Sanders, Edelman, Lockett, Anderson, Kirk
TE: Olsen, Clay, Kittle, M.Andrews
DL: Jordan, Golden, Ngakoue, Tuitt, C.Harris
LB: Mosley, D.Jones, Wright, Treviathan, V.Williams, Evans, Warner
DB: S.Davis, J.Evans, Bell[

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm

Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm
He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, T. West, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


(bold green indicates projected '18-19 seasonal starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm

Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm
I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.


Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby cweds » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:32 pm

Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm
I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.
Is it that crazy to believe the Chiefs paid Sammy a top 3 receiver salary because they think he's actually good? It's not like they have cap space to burn. Clearly, they see him as a talented player and have a vision for his role (likely an important one at this price).
Team 1 (2nd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Joe Williams, J. Richard, Lacy
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, C. Williams, C. Henderson, Mitchell
TE: Olsen, Kittle, Ebron, J. Smith, Shaheen
2018: 1.11, 2.09, 2.11, 3.09, 3.11, 4.11, 5.11
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 2 (1st season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: DJ, Guice, Penny, Royce Freeman, Yeldon, Carson, Conner, Dixon
WR: Allen, Robinson, JJSS, Landry, Watkins, Doctson, Godwin, Callaway, J. Moore, Allison, Valdés-Scantling
TE: Kelce, Njoku, Shaheen

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Kaz
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Kaz » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm

btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm
Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm
He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Playing one full season does not erase several seasons worth of problems that either kept him off the field or severely limited him.
TryingToWin wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm
Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?
We can justify it because our dynasty leagues are hobbies. Usually, the worst you'll be out is a couple hundred dollars if you are playing in the expensive money leagues. However, GMs are gambling with millions of dollars of cap, ticket sales, and other attendance base things. It's safe to say they are putting their jobs on the line, so it's up to them whether they want to risk it on paying for potential. Paying for potential and being right wins your superbowls. Being wrong wins you first spot in the unemployment line. I also disagree that he's a top 10 talent.
cweds wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:32 pm
Is it that crazy to believe the Chiefs paid Sammy a top 3 receiver salary because they think he's actually good? It's not like they have cap space to burn. Clearly, they see him as a talented player and have a vision for his role (likely an important one at this price).
Not at all. I simply think they are wrong. Now, only time will tell who is right, but I will be mildly surprised if he plays all three years of his contract. I simply think Sammy is a middling #2 WR who will sometimes produce like a low end #1. I feel like the dynasty community has become so enraptured based on his physical stats and "potential" that they aren't reconciling it with his actual production. To me, he is the WR C.Mike, though a bit more productive. At 16m, that's simply too expensive for me to gamble on, especially for a team that had salary cap troubles coming into this FA.
QB: Ryan, Bridgewater
RB: McCoy, McKinnon, R.Jones, Lynch
WR: T.Hill, A.Rob, D.Adams, DT, Sanders, Edelman, Lockett, Anderson, Kirk
TE: Olsen, Clay, Kittle, M.Andrews
DL: Jordan, Golden, Ngakoue, Tuitt, C.Harris
LB: Mosley, D.Jones, Wright, Treviathan, V.Williams, Evans, Warner
DB: S.Davis, J.Evans, Bell[

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:57 pm

Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm
TryingToWin wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm
Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?
We can justify it because our dynasty leagues are hobbies. Usually, the worst you'll be out is a couple hundred dollars if you are playing in the expensive money leagues. However, GMs are gambling with millions of dollars of cap, ticket sales, and other attendance base things. It's safe to say they are putting their jobs on the line, so it's up to them whether they want to risk it on paying for potential. Paying for potential and being right wins your superbowls. Being wrong wins you first spot in the unemployment line. I also disagree that he's a top 10 talent.
I took that into account before writing my post. I don't think your reasoning is solid because if the Chiefs believe he is a top tier WR and the market drives his price to $16 milli, then the teams that believe in his talent will pay that price. Real life football GMs included.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby hankmurphy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:35 pm

I'm excited!
10-team 0.5PPR 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1WR/TE
28-player roster, 18 keepers

J Winston, P Mahomes, M Trubisky

J Mixon, A Kamara, T Coleman, CJ Anderson, J Allen, M Brieda, E McGuire, R Burkhead

O Beckham, B Cooks, A Robinson, S Watkins, D Parker, C Davis, C Kupp, C Godwin, C Meredith

A Seferian-Jenkins, OJ Howard, D Njoku, G Kittle

2018 - 1.01, 2.01, 2.09, 4.01, 5.01

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:39 pm

Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm
btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Playing one full season does not erase several seasons worth of problems that either kept him off the field or severely limited him.
Lol sure, but it's closer to the truth than saying he can't stay on the field. The most recent thing we've seen him do is exactly that.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, D. Guice, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, S. Perine, T. West, J. Hill, M. Gillislee
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, M. Williams, C. Coleman, J. Ross, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


(bold green indicates projected '18-19 seasonal starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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spotxc
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby spotxc » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:44 pm

I hope mahomes is the truth and sammy becomes a favorite since all these guys are starting rapport with mahomes

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby dipANDglide » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:33 pm

btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm
Kaz wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm
He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Ty!!! This narrative has gotten out of hand.

I like this spot more than LAR and CHI. Reid and KC didn't pay him 16m/yr to give him 70 targets. Hill was great this year and I think he and Watkins can coexist and each get 100-125 targets. I expect WR2 as his ceiling year 1 with room to grow as Mahomes matures. I'm excited to see Mahomes and co.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:46 pm

Anyone on this forum should know by now, I am a HUGE Sammy truther. I love his talent.

But every time someone says "They wouldn't have paid him $16M/y to be an ancillary piece", I can't help but think "Ok but didn't we say the same thing about the Rams paying a 2nd for him??".

2nd round picks are real capital. Teams don't just throw them around lightly.
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Kenny G, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Herndon
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Simon, Goodson
DB: CHURCH/TAVON/POYER, Farley, John J, Geathers, Maye, McLeod, Quandre, D Everett

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby ericanadian » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:38 pm

Watkins was brought in to replace Maclin. Reid was pissed over what happened with Maclin getting cut and this is the result. Watkins is definitely capped in KC. Reid spreads the ball around a lot and bringing in an Air Raid QB doesn't suggest a change in plans. How this effects guys like Hill will depend on how effective the offense is. Mahomes is going to need to spread the ball around to be effective and Reid can make that offense happen, but I think guys are going to disappear regularly.
The Jolly Rodgers - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Trubisky, Garoppolo
RB - Montgomery, Henry, Bernard, Foreman, Booker, Prosise, Darkwa
WR - Julio, D. Bryant, Watkins, Lee, Gordon, Kupp
TE - Kelce, J. Smith, Shaheen
LB - Kuechly, Shazier
DL - Ansah, Suh, Hunter
DB - Joseph, Neal, Peppers
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby pvillebiker » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:49 pm

Laughing at all the fine peeps so pained that the Chefs (over)paid the $16 mill per for Sammy, as if it's their $ or that it matters if they actually overpaid. This if fantasy football. There's no crying in fantasy -- oh wait wrong narrative -- all we care is if he scores points or not. I'm betting he does in Reid's offense, but I suspect Sammy's production will more resemble Cooks boom-or-bust stat lines than his good 1/2 season in Buffalo. At least the first year while junior is learning the ropes.

oh yeah, Robert Woods is gonna fold like the lawn chair he is unless the rams bring in legit WR1 replacement. To intentionally mis-quote Clint, "the rams are looking for a few good WR's, and you ain't it Robert Woods!" LOL

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby JFever » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:04 pm

I disagree on the Robert Woods thought. I think there is more to that kid. He may not be an NFL prototypical wr1, but, he had good to great chemistry with Goff. That shouldn't be minimized as much as it is around here if we are all being objective and honest.
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:29 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:46 pm
Anyone on this forum should know by now, I am a HUGE Sammy truther. I love his talent.

But every time someone says "They wouldn't have paid him $16M/y to be an ancillary piece", I can't help but think "Ok but didn't we say the same thing about the Rams paying a 2nd for him??".

2nd round picks are real capital. Teams don't just throw them around lightly.

Actually, no, 2nd round picks are not real capital. Plain and simple, they’re not. Try telling an owner that signs checks from his money that a 2nd round pick has any sort of monetary semblance to $48 million. One options costs them nothing, the other costs $48 million.
Last edited by TryingToWin on Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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