Watkins to Chiefs

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btv802
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:15 am

guyatwork37 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:12 am
Not a great landing sport for Watkins from a fantasy perspective. He's maybe the fourth mouth to feed there after Hill, Kelce, and Hunt. I'm guessing Tyreke is deep guy and Watkins is underneath / medium route guy. I just don't see him emerging as WR1 on his team which means he'll be a WR3 with WR2 upside, which is fine, you need those guys, but not what you expected from Sammy Watkins when he entered the NFL.

Great for Mahomes though.
Haha come on. Hunt is going to get whatever targets are left over after Kelce/Hill/Sammy get theirs. Lets not go overboard.

120+ targets to Kelce, 100+ targets for Tyreek and Sammy each...the rest will go to Hunt. Nobody else will be relevant in that offense.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady
RB: J. Mixon, M. Mack, T. Coleman, N. Hines, D. Henry, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, S. Perine
WR: B. Cooks, C. Davis, S. Watkins, All. Robinson, M. Williams, S. Roberts, C. Samuel, R. Switzer, J. Ross, J. Matthews, T. Taylor, C. Coleman
TE: D. Njoku, J. Smith
IR: D. Guice, D. Freeman, O.J. Howard, M. Lee
Taxi: B. Scott, K. Lauletta, R. Foster, K, Kirkwood
2019: 3rd, 4th, 4th
2020: 4th

(bold green indicates current projected starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:18 am

BigBawseRoss wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:11 am
its happened before lol....praying KC took note of the bills misuse in the targets dept.
I know about his past but Sammy seems to have grown up a bit since his days with the Bills.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady
RB: J. Mixon, M. Mack, T. Coleman, N. Hines, D. Henry, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, S. Perine
WR: B. Cooks, C. Davis, S. Watkins, All. Robinson, M. Williams, S. Roberts, C. Samuel, R. Switzer, J. Ross, J. Matthews, T. Taylor, C. Coleman
TE: D. Njoku, J. Smith
IR: D. Guice, D. Freeman, O.J. Howard, M. Lee
Taxi: B. Scott, K. Lauletta, R. Foster, K, Kirkwood
2019: 3rd, 4th, 4th
2020: 4th

(bold green indicates current projected starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:20 am

btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:18 am
BigBawseRoss wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:11 am
its happened before lol....praying KC took note of the bills misuse in the targets dept.
I know about his past but Sammy seems to have grown up a bit since his days with the Bills.
Not playing for Rex Ryan or the Bills in general helps.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby kamihamster » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:25 am

I know when Smith was the QB the WR position was weird in terms of production and snap count. Conley/Robinson would have 95-100% of the snap count but would put up hardly any numbers. Hill was around 60-80% but had a lot more production. I wonder if Mahomes at QB will change that, or if that is how Reid runs his system where one guy is more of a space maker/blocker where he has lots of snaps but doesn't catch the ball much. If it's the latter, I have a feeling Sammy is going to be that guy and will have another down year.
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QB: A.Rodgers, C.Keenum
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WR: J.Gordon, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, M.Valdes-Scantiling, Jo.Brown, L.Fitzgerald, Tw.Taylor, L.Treadwell
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper, M.LaCosse
IDP: D.James, N.Vigil, G.Hodges, K.Fuller
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2019 Picks: 3, 4, 4, 5
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby kris_kapsner » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:55 am

This a very interesting signing. Not where I would have thought Watkins would go. But, this is a smart move on his part. Andy Reid will get him the ball.

I expect 55-65 catches for Watkins and let's face it, with the new QB I can't project anything more than 8 TD's and that is probably on the high side. Long term I could see Watkins stats to go up if Mahomes can develop into top 10 QB. But, his ceiling is certainly capped with so many other big play makers on the field with him.

Mahomes owners have to be giddy with this. More targets mean better stats for him.

Kelce was probably due for a small step down with the QB change and Mahomes' inexperience. I still expect that. But, he'll still be a top 3 TE.

Hunt should be relatively uneffected. If anything, more weapons on the outside clear out the defense making it easier for dump off passes and running the ball.

Hill is the guy who takes a hit here in my mind. He's explosive and a gamer. But, there will only be so many balls thrown outside and the middle is owned by Kelce. I've had my trepidation with Hill even prior to this. The guy is 5'10" 185 pounds. He's fast. He's quick. He's a 5th round pick. I don't picture him as your ideal WR1. I know that Hill owners won't want to hear that. They want to think, hey, this guy just blew up in his second season and he should be even better going into his 3rd year. But that doesn't always happen. And even before the signing of Watkins, I was interested in keeping an eye on who else lands on the Chiefs that "projects" as having a WR1 skill set. I was planning on going for that guy and trying to get him on the cheap.
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QB: Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, G. Bernard, J. Richard, J. Rodgers, Scarbrough
WR: Fitz, Dez, AJ Green, Gordon, Watkins, D. Thomas, Fuller, Crabtree, Conley
TE: Kelce, Seals-Jones
K: Fairbairn
D: Baltimore

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby guyatwork37 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:24 am

btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:15 am
guyatwork37 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:12 am
Not a great landing sport for Watkins from a fantasy perspective. He's maybe the fourth mouth to feed there after Hill, Kelce, and Hunt. I'm guessing Tyreke is deep guy and Watkins is underneath / medium route guy. I just don't see him emerging as WR1 on his team which means he'll be a WR3 with WR2 upside, which is fine, you need those guys, but not what you expected from Sammy Watkins when he entered the NFL.

Great for Mahomes though.
Haha come on. Hunt is going to get whatever targets are left over after Kelce/Hill/Sammy get theirs. Lets not go overboard.

120+ targets to Kelce, 100+ targets for Tyreek and Sammy each...the rest will go to Hunt. Nobody else will be relevant in that offense.
Even if you assume 100 targets for Watkins, that's what, 55 to 60 catches (based on 55% career catch rate) for maybe 800 or 900 yards? Let's say he gets 5 or 6 touchdowns, that around 180 points (plus or minus) which would put him as a high end WR3 / low end WR2 in PPR. Like I said, certainly has a place on a fantasy team, but not what you were expecting when he came in to the NFL.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:29 am

guyatwork37 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:24 am
Even if you assume 100 targets for Watkins, that's what, 55 to 60 catches (based on 55% career catch rate) for maybe 800 or 900 yards? Let's say he gets 5 or 6 touchdowns, that around 180 points (plus or minus) which would put him as a high end WR3 / low end WR2 in PPR. Like I said, certainly has a place on a fantasy team, but not what you were expecting when he came in to the NFL.
Agreed that feels like a safe projection, but it's an improvement on last season and would make him a WR2 which is def useful in fantasy.

Edit: Sorry I just repeated what you said...so yes I agree 100% with everything you say.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady
RB: J. Mixon, M. Mack, T. Coleman, N. Hines, D. Henry, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, S. Perine
WR: B. Cooks, C. Davis, S. Watkins, All. Robinson, M. Williams, S. Roberts, C. Samuel, R. Switzer, J. Ross, J. Matthews, T. Taylor, C. Coleman
TE: D. Njoku, J. Smith
IR: D. Guice, D. Freeman, O.J. Howard, M. Lee
Taxi: B. Scott, K. Lauletta, R. Foster, K, Kirkwood
2019: 3rd, 4th, 4th
2020: 4th

(bold green indicates current projected starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:52 am

From a football perspective this is a great fit. Watkins adds the Maclin dimension back to Reid's offense. I was wrong about Hill and he was fantastic last season. However, he's not a possession receiver. Watkins is and Reid can move him around the offense and utilize him as a chain mover and in the redzone where KC ranked 29th in scoring last season. The bonus is that you now have two WR's who are more than capable of winning deep. Imagine that with Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt still on the field.

KC's offense could be a big-time PYP offense.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:12 am

I agree with the idea that in 2018 Mahomes will not be tasked with carrying the offense. KC had a solid running game (when they committed to it) in 2017 and they should have more depth this season with the return of Ware to compliment Hunt. Reid will likely protect his young QB with the running game in a similar fashion to what Seattle did with Russell Wilson when he became their starter. Mahomes' role should expand as he grows into the position.

But this narrative that having several talented players on an offense is a bad thing confuses me a bit. When you've got one quality pass catcher, be it a RB, WR, or TE and a defense can key on that player they do so to neutralize an attack. The Triplets in Dallas, The Greatest Show on Turf in St. Louis, whatever they called Harrison/Wayne/Addai/Clark in Indy, all had so many talented players that you couldn't stop them from scoring points.

Real world NFL points = fantasy points. The better and more diverse an NFL offense is, the more scoring drives they will create. That in turn translates to fantasy success for the cogs in that machine. Give me a good player on a good offense over that same player in a mediocre to poor offense every time. Target share be damned. I want the quality targets.

As for Watkins landing in KC I don't see it as being that much different than his situation in LA last year, but will reserve judgement until I see how this looks on the field. Hill/Watkins/Kelce/Hunt is a lot more appealing to me than Hill/Kelce/(Wilson or Conley)/Hunt would have been had KC stayed with what they had.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, (RB/WR/TE), K, D

QB: R. Wilson, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, L. Miller, N. Chubb, I. Crowell, J. Jackson
WR:M. Thomas (N.O.), T.Y. Hilton, A. Jeffery, C. Godwin, D. Pettis, J. Reynolds, D. Cain
TE: T. Kelce, E. Engram, D. Njoku

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby JFever » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:37 am

So, whoever the KC kicker is - go get him. right?

:biggrin:
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby mullmania » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:11 am

I did not feel WR was a big need for the Chiefs.

Feels like a massive overpay

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:16 am

JFever wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:37 am
So, whoever the KC kicker is - go get him. right?

:biggrin:
I'm not advocating that move. Though I do like kickers from high scoring offenses if you have to play one.

I realize you're just making fun. That's fine, carry on.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, (RB/WR/TE), K, D

QB: R. Wilson, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, L. Miller, N. Chubb, I. Crowell, J. Jackson
WR:M. Thomas (N.O.), T.Y. Hilton, A. Jeffery, C. Godwin, D. Pettis, J. Reynolds, D. Cain
TE: T. Kelce, E. Engram, D. Njoku

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am

I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:57 am

TryingToWin wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am
I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.
This is the optimistic take. I'm admittedly biased but don't hate it.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady
RB: J. Mixon, M. Mack, T. Coleman, N. Hines, D. Henry, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, S. Perine
WR: B. Cooks, C. Davis, S. Watkins, All. Robinson, M. Williams, S. Roberts, C. Samuel, R. Switzer, J. Ross, J. Matthews, T. Taylor, C. Coleman
TE: D. Njoku, J. Smith
IR: D. Guice, D. Freeman, O.J. Howard, M. Lee
Taxi: B. Scott, K. Lauletta, R. Foster, K, Kirkwood
2019: 3rd, 4th, 4th
2020: 4th

(bold green indicates current projected starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:07 pm

btv802 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:57 am
TryingToWin wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am
I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.
This is the optimistic take. I'm admittedly biased but don't hate it.
Agreed. That's a sexy narrative, I just hope it comes to fruition!
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen
MIXON, AP, Collins, Ajayi, D Martin, Chase E, R Smith
HILL/DIGGS/KA/EVANS/HILTON, ARob, Sammy, C Davis, Tre'Quan, Ateman, Foster
GRONK, Vance, Herndon, Shaheen
-
DL: CHANDLER/CAM JORDAN/FLOWERS, Short, Golden, Addison, Sheard, Larry O
LB: KENDRICKS/WARNER/ZACH C, Schobert, Williamson, R Evans, A Walker, KJW, Bynes, Kyzir
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/SIMMONS, John J, Kazee, TJ Mac, Diggs

T2
RIVERS, Jimmy G, Dalton, Eli, Colt M
GURLEY/DJ/MIXON, Guice, Gus E, J Wilson, Chase E, Darkwa
NUK/HILL/KA/EVANS/AJG, Golladay, Sammy, David Moore, J-Wash, Foster, Patrick, Sherfield, J'Mon, JMatt
ENGRAM, Doyle, Vance, Herndon, Higbee, Everett, Hollister
-
DL: BUCKNER/BARNETT/GRIFFEN/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Autry, Ogbah, Wolfe, T Bryan, N Spence, Simon
LB: BURFICT/WARNER/HITCHENS, Danny T, KJW, Ebukam, A Walker, Vince W, Morrow, Hodges
DB: GEATHERS/POYER/JOHN J, Diggs, S Williams, Phillips, Kazee, Whitehead


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