Stop calling Sammy Watkins a stud

[UATahoe]

I am loving the move for my share in Mahomes. My trade of Mark Ingram for Amari Cooper, Mahomes, and the 2.04 feels like downright stealing. Lol.

[ArrylT]

Nice post Cameron Giles^. I appreciate your take. The examples you shared make sense. I do however think there is a bit more to it. It's possible that Goff was just going through growing pains. Maybe his progressions were a touch slow, Maybe Watkins is an expensive decoy. His role on an offense may be to make it easier for others to find a one on one mismatch. Seems an odd way to use wr1 talent, but, one can make the argument that by doing so, you are elevating the play of 1, 2, or even 3 other offensive players. So, I guess there is that.

Sammy's stat line last year in 15 games of 39 receptions on 70 targets for 593 isn't what I'd call numbers I'd be happy with from my wr1. But.... his lack of success likely did contribute to Woods very impressive state line in 14 games of 56 receptions from 85 targets and 781 yds. I didn't add in Kupp's production, but, I think it would be more of the same. Kupp did have a very nice rookie campaign and I think it makes sense that Watkin's decoy role had to have contributed to not only Woods, but also Kupp and very likely contribute to there being more room for Gurley to run.

So, then, since Watkins is gone from the Rams, do we expect T.Gurley to struggle like he did before S.Watkins got there from Buffalo? Logical question to an extent because if we expect Woods and Kupp to regress, we should also expect opposing defenses to key in on Gurley even that much more as he would be the number one weapon on that offense. What a twisted web of interrelated pieces... ugh.

I'm not sure of the answer to that. McVay has been an OC for four years (3 WSH, 1 LA). He had DeSean Jackson in Washington and Sammy Watkins last season. So, he's always had that WR with game-breaking speed who can stretch the field and take attention away. Does LA currently have a comparable player? I don't know. But, McVay is one of the top offensive minds in the league, so I'm sure he'll figure something out. I don't think Woods or Kupp will necessarily be worse next season, I just think they'll have to adjust to clearly being the talented receivers on the team.

I guess they are hoping Reynolds can fill part of that role?

[jaykay22]

It was as close to a shadow as it gets.

Watkins will still likely get the #1 CB in KC too, but that wasn't the issue for his lack of production and targets. The key for Watkins becoming more fantasy relevant in Kansas City will be if they use him as more of a possession receiver than vertical threat. Hill already stretches the secondary with his speed, so Watkins can operate more in the short and intermediate levels.

If that is in fact what ends up happening, would it be a fair comparison in a Reid offence to say Tyreek plays more of the DeSean Jackson role with his elite speed and Sammy plays more of the Maclin role as a possession WR?

I think that's exactly what Reid is hoping to accomplish.

[Orenthal Shames]

I think this is your last window to sell him to someone who still thinks he has wr1 value. A year from now he will be valued appropriately as a wr2 or 3.

[maxhyde]

In 2 points I will be be perfectly honest how I feel about this.
1. Hard to get less than the 70 targets he had in a full 16 game season last year
2. 16M/yr he is not there to be a decoy or run 2nd fiddle to Tyreek

This may affect Tyreek's targets but might not affect his touches as much. He is a gifted player that has serious ability with the ball in his hands. Watkins likely gets the top targets and the top coverage which may help Tyreek get free.

Besides if your leagues are anything like mine Watkins value is in the tank so you gain what exactly by selling him before seeing what the plan is?

[Orenthal Shames]

Not a great landing sport for Watkins from a fantasy perspective. He's maybe the fourth mouth to feed there after Hill, Kelce, and Hunt. I'm guessing Tyreke is deep guy and Watkins is underneath / medium route guy. I just don't see him emerging as WR1 on his team which means he'll be a WR3 with WR2 upside, which is fine, you need those guys, but not what you expected from Sammy Watkins when he entered the NFL.

Great for Mahomes though.

Haha come on. Hunt is going to get whatever targets are left over after Kelce/Hill/Sammy get theirs. Lets not go overboard.

120+ targets to Kelce, 100+ targets for Tyreek and Sammy each...the rest will go to Hunt. Nobody else will be relevant in that offense.

Even if you assume 100 targets for Watkins, that's what, 55 to 60 catches (based on 55% career catch rate) for maybe 800 or 900 yards? Let's say he gets 5 or 6 touchdowns, that around 180 points (plus or minus) which would put him as a high end WR3 / low end WR2 in PPR. Like I said, certainly has a place on a fantasy team, but not what you were expecting when he came in to the NFL.

^This is where I stand on Sammy with KC. Each league is different. In mine, owners still treat him as a high end dynasty asset. If his value in yours is in the toilet, snatch him up. I just think that a year from now his value will be pretty in step with his actual wr2/3 production, so buy or sell accordingly.

[UATahoe]

So for a fair value, what are we thinking? Mid 2nd? Late 2nd? As a Mahomes owner I wouldn't mind owning Sammy but I wouldn't do it at the expense of a 1st.

[Jfever]

Doubt any of his owners are going to move him for a mid to late 2nd. What is in it for them? May as well hold and see. You'd have to sweeten the pot a bit.

[maxhyde]

Doubt any of his owners are going to move him for a mid to late 2nd. What is in it for them? May as well hold and see. You'd have to sweeten the pot a bit.

I own Watkins in a couple leagues and other than Barkley there isn't a rookie today I would swap him for. Definitely no WR in this draft and without known landing spots the other RB's aren't worth it to me either. Maybe after the draft you may find an owner willing to swap him for a rookie RB other than Barkley but for my money I would/will stick with Watkins

[btv802]

So for a fair value, what are we thinking? Mid 2nd? Late 2nd? As a Mahomes owner I wouldn't mind owning Sammy but I wouldn't do it at the expense of a 1st.

Think you are a little off there buddy. A guy in my league that admittedly doesn't value Sammy very highly offered me 1.07 over the weekend and I turned it down. That was his, "I don't expect this to get it done but doesn't hurt to try" offer.

[UATahoe]

Dont think I am off bud, just think we have a different opinion. I wouldn't give up a 1st. That's not saying he wouldn't play well but it is a gamble in my mind and one I wouldn't take. Thanks for the feedback though.

[pierson242]

Dont think I am off bud, just think we have a different opinion. I wouldn't give up a 1st. That's not saying he wouldn't play well but it is a gamble in my mind and one I wouldn't take. Thanks for the feedback though.

Hes worth an early to mid first, late first at the very least. I dont see any owners accepting a mid 2nd

[btv802]

Dont think I am off bud, just think we have a different opinion. I wouldn't give up a 1st. That's not saying he wouldn't play well but it is a gamble in my mind and one I wouldn't take. Thanks for the feedback though.

I'm not really criticizing your opinion of Sammy so much as I'm thinking you aggressively overvalue rookie picks. Last year was one of the best rookie classes we've seen in a long time and the mid-late 2nd wasn't exactly inspiring. If you drafted Kupp in that range that's great (still would rather have Sammy 1000x over). If you drafted anybody else odds are you've got a roster clogging asset with a low probability of ever becoming fantasy relevant. Not sure how you can think those types of players are remotely close to fair value for Sammy.

[joeya2001]

I wouldn't mind having the guy, but idk if I give up something great, maybe something good.

SW in 4 seasons only played one full his rookie year, 16,13,8,15.
Even when he was "Balling" most receptions was 65, topped 1000 yards once and barley, (1047).
He does product TD's so he can fin the end zone, ill give him that.

Id say a mid-late first is his price, other than that, your paying for his name, and this assumed potential were still waiting on.
Me personally id rather if I didn't have him go to the Josh Gordon owner and see what they want, may be cheaper and id say they are the same player.


If Watkins was a QB he would be Sam Bradford!

[UATahoe]

Dont think I am off bud, just think we have a different opinion. I wouldn't give up a 1st. That's not saying he wouldn't play well but it is a gamble in my mind and one I wouldn't take. Thanks for the feedback though.

I'm not really criticizing your opinion of Sammy so much as I'm thinking you aggressively overvalue rookie picks. Last year was one of the best rookie classes we've seen in a long time and the mid-late 2nd wasn't exactly inspiring. If you drafted Kupp in that range that's great (still would rather have Sammy 1000x over). If you drafted anybody else odds are you've got a roster clogging asset with a low probability of ever becoming fantasy relevant. Not sure how you can think those types of players are remotely close to fair value for Sammy.

No worries at all man. That’s definitely a fair assessment. I can see where the 1.11 or 1.12 could possibly turn out an underachiever for sure but there are still guys that I think could fall to there. It obviously all depends on how the draft unfolds really. Within my league, I feel pretty confident a couple of guys I like could fall to the end of round 1 and they would be guys I would be confortable rolling with instead of Sammy. That very well could change come draft time if I were on the clock though. I guess I view both situations as gambles honestly at that point and a wash. Given my need for RB help, I would lean more towards the draft and trying to hit on a RB rookie so the better use of my pick would be in the draft and not a trade. Sammy is just a. Wild card. Don’t get me wrong, I would turn the 2.04 in a heart beat for him but I am holding my 1.06 and wouldn’t even entertain moving it for Sammy.