My homemade draft pick value tool

[hockeyBjj]

So, been crunching numbers in excel for all the draft picks made in the last two years in my league (I've only played Dynasty two years) and made myself a tool to show the average fantasy value of each pick by round, and also odds of hitting a stud/starter/player by each round. Later on this summer I'll clean up the tool, post it in full form as a google doc, and then maybe someone else can do the leg work of finding MFL rookie ADP for the last 5 or 7 years and get us a much better use of averages as I feel knowing these numbers will really help the "should I trade up or down? What's X player worth in picks?" questions

These are the results from that tool. Keep in strong mind, the biggest limitation at the moment is the small sample size and also bias of not giving up on 2017 rookies yet who haven't produced. Even with those things, I still think it'll be pretty useful to share. 10 team league, ppr, and my own personal league's last two years drafts. So there are some amazing hits, and astounding fails (Marlon Mack at 1.4 last year) that are skewing the data some. If you have questions on exactly which players are getting what result (Kareem Hunt is the lone stud from the 2nd round fyi) for their odds please ask away!!! I'll be looking for advice to help make this better as well, or additional info to crunch from the data set

I have Fantasy Pros (rankings just needed to be ok, not perfect) for player rankings. And then assigned top 20 = stud, top 60 = starter, top 140 = player. Note, percentages are inclusive of the tier above it

Round 1: Average player rank = 76. 25% chance of stud, 50% chance of starter, 80% chance of player

Top 3 picks: 48 33% studs, 67% starters, 83% players
Picks 4-7: 43 (I blame Treadwell for pulling down the average of top 3) 33% studs, 83% starters, 100% players (again, recency bias of still hopeful for high drafted 2017 rookies)
Picks 7-10: 123 player rank with 13% studs, 25% starters, 63% players
so definitely seeing a drop off of late 1st compared to mid and early first even with kamara in there at the 1.10

Round 2: average player rank = 128. 5% studs (Hunt), 20% starters, 60% players
picks 11-15: 106 player rank. 10% studs, 20% starters, 60% players
picks 16-20: 150 player rank, 0% studs, 20% starters, 50% players

Round 3: 189 player rank. 0 studs, 5% starters (Carson Wentz), 30% players

Round 4: 224 player rank. 0 studs, 5% starters (D Watson), 30% players

Round 5: 252 player rank. 0 studs, 0 starters, 5% players (Cohen)

Rankings went to 280 on fantasy pros and I assigned a 300 to anyone not on the list. 5th round is being supported by Tarik Cohen, Trubisky, and George Kittle from last year. Tyler Higbee at 242 is the only ranked at all 5th rounder from 2016

Hoping this info helps people preparing for the draft and how to value their picks, even if its just based off two year's of data from a single league. Hoping sometime this summer to release this as a proper tool. This is the data I have so far

[clarion contrarion]

keep me posted interested to see how this turns out !

[hockeyBjj]

keep me posted interested to see how this turns out !

Definitely. Still a work in progress but wanted to share what the data spat out based off what I have now. I'll clean it up and post a template sometime around the NFL draft will be my goal

Few questions- Anyone have MFL ADP data from rookie drafts? I'd rather use the averaged out picks to balance the reach and hits or swings and misses.

Also will need year by year dynasty rankings so that I'm not just looking at 2018 rankings. Struggling to find that

Similar to that, how do I set the ADP of players who are past their prime from older rookie drafts? Average their top 3 ADPs that weren't from their rookie or sophomore campaign so that its based on results and not hope and then also takes away their regressing older years?

[nathanq42]

Thanks for the hard work

[dlf_kenm]

I might be able to help out with some of that data. DM'ing you...