What RB can I get as a Trade for Pick 1.09?

[millworkguy]

I wouldn't pay 1.09 for Miller, shady I like for 1 year, can see it being 2 (of decent production) and if I am a contender I make that trade.

Assuming you start 2 rb, your solid most of the season, McKinnon may gain in value, I think Cohen gets a more defined role

[_yeti]

According to DLF ADP, here are the RBs within about 10 picks of where the 9th rookie slots into the ADP listing.

Tevin Coleman
Kenyan Drake
LeSean McCoy
----rookie #9----
Duke Johnson
Tarik Cohen
Alex Collins

Just traded Drake for 1.10, reading this gave me the idea to offer. Sent out offers for Drake for the 1.9 and 1.10.

1.9 declined and 1.10 accepted. In 2016 I traded 2017 2nd (became 2.12) and 2017 5th (became 5.12) for 2016 3.6 and drafted Drake. Now moved Drake for 2018 1.10. Pretty happy with it.

[millworkguy]

According to DLF ADP, here are the RBs within about 10 picks of where the 9th rookie slots into the ADP listing.

Tevin Coleman
Kenyan Drake
LeSean McCoy
----rookie #9----
Duke Johnson
Tarik Cohen
Alex Collins

Above post got 1.10 for drake, I just had an owner ask me for 1.03 for duke!

[Vcize]

Maybe I'm crazy but I wouldn't move Shady for 1.09.

I play Dynasty looking in three year windows, give me McCoy over the unproven rookie for the next three years

I think it's more likely than not that Shady has 0 more years, much less 3.

He just put up his worst career YPC (much lower than his recent average) in his age 29 season. That bodes very very poorly. When you look at career worhorse studs that were useless dreck at age 30 (LT, Edge, Alexander, etc) they all had an age 29 season just like McCoy's. Career low efficiency but enough volume to still be a decent fantasy option so they retained their value into their age 30 season where they were total garbage.

Meanwhile when you look at guys who were still useful through their early 30's, they pretty much passed through their age 29 season like they were still 22. Gore, Martin, etc. Above average YPC if not near career highs in their age 29 season.

McCoy showed signs of slowing down. History tells us that when a workhorse RB approaching 30 shows signs of slowing down, he is D-O-N-E the next year. No way I would be buying Shady right now. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him play 6 games at low efficiency and then pack it up with some seemingly minor injury and never be fantasy relevant again.

[darewood11]

I think McKinnon has potential to be a decent week to week starter in fantasy of he finds a nice home.

[cazzie33]

Maybe I'm crazy but I wouldn't move Shady for 1.09.

I play Dynasty looking in three year windows, give me McCoy over the unproven rookie for the next three years

I think it's more likely than not that Shady has 0 more years, much less 3.

He just put up his worst career YPC (much lower than his recent average) in his age 29 season. That bodes very very poorly. When you look at career worhorse studs that were useless dreck at age 30 (LT, Edge, Alexander, etc) they all had an age 29 season just like McCoy's. Career low efficiency but enough volume to still be a decent fantasy option so they retained their value into their age 30 season where they were total garbage.

Meanwhile when you look at guys who were still useful through their early 30's, they pretty much passed through their age 29 season like they were still 22. Gore, Martin, etc. Above average YPC if not near career highs in their age 29 season.

McCoy showed signs of slowing down. History tells us that when a workhorse RB approaching 30 shows signs of slowing down, he is D-O-N-E the next year. No way I would be buying Shady right now. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him play 6 games at low efficiency and then pack it up with some seemingly minor injury and never be fantasy relevant again.

What would you take in return for Shady since you are so certain that he has little to no life left as a feature RB ? ...A late 2nd ? ...Early 3rd ?

I highly doubt you would.

[Vcize]

Maybe I'm crazy but I wouldn't move Shady for 1.09.

I play Dynasty looking in three year windows, give me McCoy over the unproven rookie for the next three years

I think it's more likely than not that Shady has 0 more years, much less 3.

He just put up his worst career YPC (much lower than his recent average) in his age 29 season. That bodes very very poorly. When you look at career worhorse studs that were useless dreck at age 30 (LT, Edge, Alexander, etc) they all had an age 29 season just like McCoy's. Career low efficiency but enough volume to still be a decent fantasy option so they retained their value into their age 30 season where they were total garbage.

Meanwhile when you look at guys who were still useful through their early 30's, they pretty much passed through their age 29 season like they were still 22. Gore, Martin, etc. Above average YPC if not near career highs in their age 29 season.

McCoy showed signs of slowing down. History tells us that when a workhorse RB approaching 30 shows signs of slowing down, he is D-O-N-E the next year. No way I would be buying Shady right now. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him play 6 games at low efficiency and then pack it up with some seemingly minor injury and never be fantasy relevant again.

What would you take in return for Shady since you are so certain that he has little to no life left as a feature RB ? ...A late 2nd ? ...Early 3rd ?

I highly doubt you would.

Of course I wouldn't take those because I don't operate under the assumption that these trends are infallible and at that point we're talking about a low value enough piece that it's worth risking it on Shady.

But no way I'd give up 1.09 for him and my main point here is that everyone is overlooking the (fairly likely scenario) that he's got zero good years left in him. Everyone is making the assumption that he 100% will be the same stud Shady next year and maybe even the next 2. The risk doesn't start in 2019 or 2020 with him. It starts right now and my money is on the trend that says he's in for a really bad year like the guys last before him with a very similar career path.

[cazzie33]

So you don't buy your own hyperbole.

That's my main point. If you could get Shady for a late 2nd or 3rd you'd take the chance if you were a contender. Odds are getting closer to 50 / 50 he doesn't produce as a top ten RB. But for a contender the odds are less than 50 / 50 he will get a top ten RB @ the 1.09 or later.

Probably Barkley,Guice, Jones, Michel, Chubb and 2-3 more workout warriors @the RB position will be gone by the time the 1.09 pick rolls around. I'll bet big bucks McCoy outscores whomever you can pick there over the next two years.

[Vcize]

So you don't buy your own hyperbole.

That's my main point. If you could get Shady for a late 2nd or 3rd you'd take the chance if you were a contender. Odds are getting closer to 50 / 50 he doesn't produce as a top ten RB. But for a contender the odds are less than 50 / 50 he will get a top ten RB @ the 1.09 or later.

Probably Barkley,Guice, Jones, Michel, Chubb and 2-3 more workout warriors @the RB position will be gone by the time the 1.09 pick rolls around. I'll bet big bucks McCoy outscores whomever you can pick there over the next two years.

What hyperbole? I'm just saying that I think the odds that McCoy is already done are a LOT higher than people are giving credit for.

You say the odds are getting closer to 50/50 he doesn't produce as a top ten RB, but I think those odds are probably at least that high that he ends up being bench fodder, much less a top 10 RB. Meanwhile people are treating it like there's only a 1% chance he's not the same old Shady this year and probably the year after.

Yeah the alternatives at 1.09 aren't necessarily more likely to offer short term value but if they do hit they offer a LOT more value (IE Shady as a top 10 RB is nice, but a 22 year old that finishes as a top 10 RB like Hunt/Kamara is worth 100x more, even if it is less likely). Regardless, it's a bit moot since the only option isn't using the pick, he's specifically looking to trade it, and there are alternatives to trade it for. Guys in the same value range via ADP look to be guys like Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Kenyan Drake. I could easily see any of those guys outperforming Shady this year since I think there's a much higher than advertised chance that Shady is done and dusted, and they all offer a higher floor and of course much better longevity even if that's only viewed as an added bonus.

[cazzie33]

Agree that there's other options but I don't think Drake or Duke owners will trade them for the 1.09 unless they have stiff competition brought in to challenge their roles. If the status quo remains in Clev & Miami both are better values than the 1.09 especially in a PPR lg.

I don't see the Brownies not bringing in a serious threat to Duke. Drake is the only option I see as potential to outperform McCoy over the next couple of seasons. Coleman will be needing a Freeman injury or soft landing in free agency to outdo Shady.

If you want to bury Shady that's your prerogative but I don't see anything@ that pick that's going to boost his team up as a contender which I'm guessing is why he wants to trade. You might be able to replicate last year and get a Kamara or Hunt there but I don't see the chances of that happening as anywhere near as the likelihood of McCoy finishing in the top 15 RB's. Having that as your flex vs a crapshoot on a rookie @ 1.09 ... I'm going Shady all the way. Now if it appears that Drake has the lead role to himself and his gm us willing to trade for the 1.09 straight up I would probably go that route over McCoy for the potential longevity. But I don't see any GM worth a damn making that deal unless he's overloaded with RB's and wants a WR/QB there instead really bad. Even then they should ask for more than just the pick.