Allen Robinson - The Forgotten Stud?

[ericanadian]

The Efficiency and Garbage Time

Allen Robinson 2015

aDoT 20+ 15/41 567 yards
aDoT 12-19 20/39 402 yards
aDoT 6-12 17/30 194 yards
aDoT 2-6 17/26 138 yards
aDoT <2 12/16 54 yards

Allen Robinson 2016

aDoT 20+ 4/32 101 yards
aDoT 12-19 23/45 453 yards
aDoT 6-12 9/25 91 yards
aDoT 2-6 29/38 196 yards
aDoT <2 7/10 31 yards

Now, I think it's perfectly reasonable that, even with Bortles, ARob should be able to improve on 4/32 on the deep ball. Those are Tim Tebow numbers. Even if you just take the average of the two, which is still bad, he has an 1,100 yard season and probably an extra couple TDs. No one is talking about a down season at this point.

The Shift to the Run Game

They threw roughly 75 less passes in 2017 compared to 2015. The fact that they did so without Allen Robinson should not be ignored. He's probably not going to make up the whole difference, but the run game struggled often because there was no threat downfield. Fournette averaging only 3.9 YPC is pretty hard to blame on Fournette. The pass attempts will go up. Maybe not 600+, but certainly they break 550.

The Competition

I don't really understand what people were talking about when they were arguing that Westbrook was a good deep threat. I'm not saying he was bad, but he averaged 12.6 ypr and less than 20% of his targets were over 20 DoT. He might even end up the slot guy with ARob and Cole on the outside. Maybe he's good deep, but the coaching staff certainly wasn't treating him like the guy going downfield. As for Cole, even if he's a deep specialist, I don't see the team adjusting ARob's role to accomodate him.

[AussieMate]

Why are you trying to trade for someone that you feel is overvalued on the trade market?

I wasn't specifically targeting Arob, but he was in a package trade I was considering, although I'm not so sure now. The op was the beginning of my deeper research. I posted on here, while continuing research, to seek out opinions/views that I hadn't contemplated as I don't consider myself to be infallible. Also, I wanted to see what the appeal was, as it wasn't obvious to me.

He originally struck me as a one season wonder, now I see him in a different light - good player but bad fantasy situation. So this thread/along with research has helped round out my opinion of the player. I still feel he's overvalued though lol.

Still too early to consider one year wonder,
One elite year
One crap year
One injured year
And people forget he was doing very well in his rookie year before injury.

I don't think he will get anywhere near 180 targets but between 120 and 140 should be the spot. Also bortles looked alright last year, hopefully that run continues for him

[Vcize]

Are we 100% convinced he gets the franchise tag?

Certainly not. It just seems the most likely (by far) scenario right now is that he stays in Jacksonville as there are reports that they are committed to keeping him, but it's certainly not a guarantee.

On the flip side, while we've all been salivating about him leaving Jax what are the chances that he actually ends up in a better situation for fantasy? SF is of course the dream spot but that seems like one of the more unlikely scenarios. Beyond Jax the next most likely spot is probably Chicago, but is that really much better with Trubisky looking like a bit of a check down machine? Next spots up are Washington with no QB and Carolina with a QB that is even less accurate than Bortles and doesn't really create great fantasy receivers.

It just seems like we're all kind of going all-in on this magical dream of him landing in SF, and I think it's far more likely than not that we end up disappointed on that front.

[nathanq42]

Don't forget the jets that are going to buy an offense this season, I want arob in SF or with cousins or even tygod (home boy hucks that thing up with no care in the world)

[AussieMate]

The Efficiency and Garbage Time

Allen Robinson 2015

aDoT 20+ 15/41 567 yards
aDoT 12-19 20/39 402 yards
aDoT 6-12 17/30 194 yards
aDoT 2-6 17/26 138 yards
aDoT <2 12/16 54 yards

Allen Robinson 2016

aDoT 20+ 4/32 101 yards
aDoT 12-19 23/45 453 yards
aDoT 6-12 9/25 91 yards
aDoT 2-6 29/38 196 yards
aDoT <2 7/10 31 yards

Now, I think it's perfectly reasonable that, even with Bortles, ARob should be able to improve on 4/32 on the deep ball. Those are Tim Tebow numbers. Even if you just take the average of the two, which is still bad, he has an 1,100 yard season and probably an extra couple TDs. No one is talking about a down season at this point.

The Shift to the Run Game

They threw roughly 75 less passes in 2017 compared to 2015. The fact that they did so without Allen Robinson should not be ignored. He's probably not going to make up the whole difference, but the run game struggled often because there was no threat downfield. Fournette averaging only 3.9 YPC is pretty hard to blame on Fournette. The pass attempts will go up. Maybe not 600+, but certainly they break 550.

The Competition

I don't really understand what people were talking about when they were arguing that Westbrook was a good deep threat. I'm not saying he was bad, but he averaged 12.6 ypr and less than 20% of his targets were over 20 DoT. He might even end up the slot guy with ARob and Cole on the outside. Maybe he's good deep, but the coaching staff certainly wasn't treating him like the guy going downfield. As for Cole, even if he's a deep specialist, I don't see the team adjusting ARob's role to accomodate him.

That 4/32 is next level bad, brings the whole year into a different light. Thanks for the stats

[goose6690]

It is probably likely he comes back.. 75%. Jacksonville is probably trying to convince him to take less money right now with zero leverage... it won't work. They want the discount from him being injured all year. Things could deteriorate quickly in which case he is a free agent.

San Fran makes the most sense on paper. They just gave a QB with 7 games experience the most money ever. You might want to give him some weapons so that doesn't blow up in your face. They need a red zone/deep threat and Arob is that and garcon is not. But since it makes too much sense I agree, probably won't happen.

Chicago sucks, I lower his value if he goes there. Carolina might not be bad, its an improvement over Jax and I am not sure Cam has ever had a decent WR (35 year old steve smith doesn't count). Dallas is possible and an improvement. Ravens need a WR, not the best landing spot.

My Arob destination rankings:
San Fran
Dallas
Carolina
Ravens
Jacksonville
Chicago

[Cowboysfan33]

I agree it might be likely he comes back.. 75%. Jacksonville is probably trying to convince him to take less money right now with zero leverage... it won't work. They want the discount from him being injured all year. Things could deteriorate quickly in which case he is a free agent.

San Fran makes the most sense on paper. They just gave a QB with 7 games experience the most money ever. You might want to give him some weapons so that doesn't blow up in your face. They need a red zone/deep threat and Arob is that and garcon is not. But since it makes too much sense I agree, probably won't happen.

Chicago sucks, I lower his value if he goes there. Carolina might not be bad, its an improvement over Jax and I am not sure Cam has ever had a decent WR (35 year old steve smith doesn't count). Dallas is possible and an improvement. Ravens need a WR, not the best landing spot.

My Arob destination rankings:
San Fran
Dallas
Carolina
Ravens
Jacksonville
Chicago

I would love for the Cowboys to get him but I doubt that they do because even though they are around 19 mill under the cap, they have to extend Zack Martin and will have a big chunk invested in Demarcus Lawrence so I doubt that they will be players in the AROB sweepstakes if he becomes available. I could see Baltimore or the Jets as likely candidates. Honestly, almost anywhere but Jax would seem to be an upgrade so hopefully he’ll find a better situation.

[StableOfRBs]

It is probably likely he comes back.. 75%. Jacksonville is probably trying to convince him to take less money right now with zero leverage... it won't work. They want the discount from him being injured all year. Things could deteriorate quickly in which case he is a free agent.

San Fran makes the most sense on paper. They just gave a QB with 7 games experience the most money ever. You might want to give him some weapons so that doesn't blow up in your face. They need a red zone/deep threat and Arob is that and garcon is not. But since it makes too much sense I agree, probably won't happen.

Chicago sucks, I lower his value if he goes there. Carolina might not be bad, its an improvement over Jax and I am not sure Cam has ever had a decent WR (35 year old steve smith doesn't count). Dallas is possible and an improvement. Ravens need a WR, not the best landing spot.

My Arob destination rankings:
San Fran
Dallas
Carolina
Ravens
Jacksonville
Chicago

Bear in mind this is a completely fantasy agnostic take:

The Jaguars just won their division for the first time since 1999 and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 without him. ARob had a fantastic 2015 but in his other 3 seasons in the league he hasn't gone over 900 yards once and hasn't had more than 6 TDs. You can blame it on Bortles or injuries or defenses playing back and all of those things are definitely factors but you need to look at it from an NFL/money standpoint, teams and owners pay for production and over 4 seasons ARob has averaged like 715 yards and 5.5 TDs a year. I like the guy, maybe less than some but I do like him. He's a young guy with some solid talent (although it remains to be seen how his ACL recovery has gone) and he 100% helps the Jags win games but in now way do they need him to win games. That's pretty much the exact opposite of zero leverage. I think it's highly likely they franchise him and see what he can do with another healthy season.


PS: SF does have a pretty good deep threat in Goodwin, granted ARob is more talented than Goodwin but Goodwin has already shown some chemistry with JimmyG so it's not like they're completely destitute at the position.

[nathanq42]

Jags also lost to the Pats to make it to the SUPERBOWL because Bortles couldn't get a first down on the last 3 drives of the game. Out around 6'3 220lb. Frame on the field and that's likely a different story, either through a lighter box for Lenny, or arob posterizing a fool

[StableOfRBs]

Jags also lost to the Pats to make it to the SUPERBOWL because Bortles couldn't get a first down on the last 3 drives of the game. Out around 6'3 220lb. Frame on the field and that's likely a different story, either through a lighter box for Lenny, or arob posterizing a fool

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/statu ... 6289936384

This twitter thread sheds a lot of light on why they failed to do anything in the 4th. Yeah, sure having Bortles under center probably didn't help but you'd think any coaching staff that could bring their team to a championship game would be smarter than trying to run the same setup over and over against one of the smartest head coaches in NFL history.

A quick summary just in case you can't/didn't read it:

-Every single 1st down in the 4th quarter was a run from shotgun
-Every single 2nd down in the 4th quarter was a deep pass downfield (distances of 20, 20, 35, and 17 yards)
-Every single 3rd down in the 4th quarter was a pass
-Most of the plays were snapped with plenty of time left on the play clock even though the game clock wasn't stopped (they didn't bother running it down)

This is a team that had a lead going into, and for most of, the 4th quarter. Bortles isn't the greatest QB in the NFL, obviously, probably average at best (which he was this year). That being said the plays that were called for Bortles in the 4th quarter were absolutely horrible. It's like dealing all the cards face up to just one guy at a poker table and wondering why he isn't winning any money. ARob or not that's pretty much a no-win situation.

[abajaba]

I love ARob and think he's a great player, but in order for him to be the absolute fantasy stud I think he can be 1 of 3 things need to happen:

1. The Jags tag him or work an extension plus they sign Kirk Cousins. Now I know they have to pay Bortles because of the injury thing but they could also trade him after signing Cousins. The Bills have 2 1st's and don't want Tyrod back. They made the playoffs last year and Bortles has more playoff wins than both Cousins & Jimmy G along with a contract that fits their cap this year and is the pocket passer they want.

2. The Jags lowball him due to injury "concern" (reasoning for lowball) and he decides to take a prove it deal to sign with SF. Him and Jimmy G would be fantastic as the focal point in that offense.

3. Jags lowball him like above but the Jets grab him on a longterm deal after they fail to sign Cousins and are stuck with Tyrod. Tyrod loves to chuck it up and since they don't have much talent on that team it leads to tons of targets for ARob.

But this ain't Madden so who knows if those would ever happen. Again, it's my favorite ideas for a guy like ARob.

[ArrylT]

Bortles extension through 2020 now.

https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2018/2/24 ... le-jaguars

[nathanq42]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[nathanq42]

Silver lining is that Bortles is dumb and will likely zero in on arob again because he is far and away the best receiving option for the jags

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Silver lining is that Bortles is dumb and will likely zero in on arob again because he is far and away the best receiving option for the jags

i don't think Bortles can "zero in" on anyone.