Dynasty Addictz Pre Combine Rookie QB Ranks

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Dynasty Addictz Pre Combine Rookie QB Ranks

Postby Dynasty Addictz » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:39 am

Hey guys, long time DLF member here! Recently decided to go rogue and start writing fantasy articles! This is my first dynasty article ever so please cut me some slack! I hope to continue writing as ive always had a love for it! Please leave feedback below, and any suggestions on any future articles!

1. Baker Mayfield
I will admit when I sat down to write this, Mayfield was not my #1. He was my #2, I had Rosen above him and felt a little unsure about it. So, I sat down and watched his tape a little more and read some more articles and was blown away. He is the most NFL ready QB in this draft, and I am not sure how close it is. I understand why some are worried about his antics, planting that flag, the crotch grab, I can understand if that worries you but as far as a football player he is the man! Its no secret that this guy loves to play football, he plays with a passion. He plays with the same level of intensity as OBJ does, maybe what he does is immature or looks stupid but its because he is so invested in the game he plays it with a fire. To add to the passion, he plays with the passion of being thought of as underrated, to short, or the underdog. He went from a walk on at Texas Tech to a Heisman trophy winner at Oklahoma. Now to the field. For starters Baker owns the best two single-season Pro Football Focus grades in four years of college grading. His passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket is 143.8, more than 20 points higher than any of the other quarterbacks entering the draft. Now I understand anyone can throw from a clean pocket, well under pressure, his passer rating was still 111.6. This makes him the only QB in the class to have a passer rating above 100 when under pressure. Over his last three seasons he has ranked first in the nation for passer rating under pressure. Something else I love about Mayfield is how he looks to pass first run second. Even when things get bad he repositions, rolls out and progresses to his next read. He rolls around to throw not to bail on the play and run, not that he is Russell Wilson, but similar to what Wilson does when the blocking breaks down. Multiple times during his tape you could see him look at his first option and either throw or adjust to the pressure/coverage and find his next target. He doesn’t force a ton of throws because of this which is why he is so good at taking care of the ball. Mayfield looks to be the most NFL ready QB. He takes care of the ball, he is a leader, and comes to play ball, not for the fame or fortune but for the love of the game! His ability to adjust to pressure, throw on the run, and take care of the ball will play to his advantage as he will likely be taken top 10 to a team where he will be depended on early.  
2. Josh Rosen
Coming in at #2 on my February QB Rookie Rankings is none other than UCLA’s Josh Rosen. Rosen is a consensus top 3 QB in ranks right now and is thought to be the best pure passer in the draft, so its not surprise to see him #2. The first thing I noticed about Rosen when watching his tape is how mature he looks in the pocket. Often when watching college tape, you will see quarterbacks crack under pressure and make mistakes trying to get the ball out or not recognize the pressure and take a sack. However, Rosen can be seen on tape staying strong in the pocket, going through his progressions, dropping back, and stepping into his throws. On multiple occasions I watched him do this despite taking monster hits the moment the ball leaves his hand. His footwork and arm strength combined with his ability to stand in the pocket makes him look like the most NFL ready QB. The downside to Rosen is he sometimes would try too hard to make a throw from the pocket resulting in a turnover, if he can develop his decision making he could very well become one of the next elite NFL QB’s. Off the field he is known to have a big ego and is someone who is hard to get along with which could hurt his draft stock, but on the field, he has the upside to be one of the NFL’s elite passers.
3. Sam Darnold
If I was writing this last year he would’ve been in a tier of his own. He was hot off a terrific year as a red shirt freshman and was already drawing Andrew Luck comparisons. Fast forward a year and he has cooled off. From 2016-2017 we saw a slight TD regression, but the big eye opener was how he handled the ball. He threw 4 more interceptions than the year before, lost four more fumbles, and threw a worse completion percentage. However, all this bad is only what dropped him from #1 to #3, he still showed elite mechanics and pocket presence. He has the it factors to rally his team together and looks like a natural leader on and off the field. Darnold is also slightly more athletic than Rosen, combo that with his arm strength and he could be deadly. He is only 20 and will be just 21 week one of the 2018 season which leaves him plenty of time to grow and clean up his mistakes. Turnovers are key for him, they will make or break his ranking, everything else you see with Darnold is hard not to love. Landing spot could put Darnold back to #1 overall conversations, if he ends up in LA or Baltimore and can sit a year, expect him to move back up for me.
4. Josh Allen
There is so much left to wonder with Allen. A great 2016 has been quickly forgotten by a poor 2017 campaign where he failed to reach 2,000 yards passing. He also saw massive dips in TD’s. The one bright spot was he toke better care of the ball by throwing 10 less interceptions. Allen can be seen ranked as high as 1 and as low as 5/6. I personally think he falls in wonderful at #4. He possesses terrific arm strength and is one of the more athletic QB’s in the draft. Allen has one of the lowest floors in the draft due to his accuracy concerns, however also has huge upside. He stands at 6’5” but can roll out of the pocket to create time like Russell Wilson and can throw the ball as far as Brett Favre. Now I am in no way saying Allen is those two but showed flashes of similar play. As mentioned earlier, Allen’s biggest flaw after the 2017 campaign was his accuracy. Allen threw a dismal 56% accuracy both 2016 and 2017. Through all of this people remain very optimistic due to his athleticism and size. He is quick, he is strong, and he can throw which are all great traits, but it takes much more to win in this league. It is also fair to argue he had no supporting cast and battled an injury. Therefore I said he leaves much to wonder. If you believe he can develop his traits and grow, he could move up a spot or two, however at his current state he will not succeed as an NFL player, he isn’t NFL ready. If he is drafted somewhere and expected to start day 1 without having time to grow, cough cough Deshone Kizer, I think he will fail miserably.
5. Lamar Jackson
Man, this is where things got seriously tough for me. While Allen is a more natural pocket passer, there is no argument on who is more athletic. Lamar burst onto the scene two years ago, stealing the show in 2016. He was electric, passing for over 3500 yards, 30 TDs, but the eye opener was the additional 1500 yards on the ground as well as 21 TD’s. He did it all for Louisville, which led him to go on and win the Heisman. Despite how good he was major question marks began to arise. The biggest question is whether this translate to the NFL or not. We have seen this many time, electric college players who went on to totally bust in the NFL. All offseason reports of him working to become a better NFL passer could be found anywhere. Jackson was nothing short of electric in his follow up campaign in 2017. He threw more, ran less, but had better numbers in every category. So why is he ranked 5th? The biggest red flag to me is what I already mentioned and that is his play style. He relies to much on his feet, as soon as things get bad he doesn’t readjust he rolls out and runs. Now this is fine because he is an amazing runner, but this doesn’t normally translate well to the NFL. Another thing I don’t love is his arm strength and accuracy are nothing special. While he threw a 59-completion percentage in 2017 Baker Mayfield threw a 70, Rosen a 63, and Darnold a 63. Now this is one number and isn’t the only thing I’m comparing but when its added to everything else its what makes him my #5 QB. Without a doubt he has the highest ceiling he has the lowest floor. Part of this is personal preference, I just have that gut feeling he doesn’t work out. Another thing I don’t love about Jackson is after watching his tape is his poor footwork. He has a tendency to bring his feet together to where they all but touch when he drops back. This leads to a poor throwing motion and inaccuracy. I will finish with this, Jackson is still very very raw, if he is drafted to a team where its clear he will sit and develop I would move him up to as high as 2 or 3, because he was electric and showed great promise but is very raw and needs developed. IF he is drafted somewhere to become the starter day 1 his rank is firm here around 5. Jackson could very possibly have the most upside for fantasy as any of the other rookies.


Bonus:
#6 Mason Rudolph – Very sound mechanics, great accuracy, potential sleeper.
#7 Luke Falk – Good accuracy, but unimpressive arm, good upside.
#8 Kyle Lauletta – Good accuracy, takes care of the ball, big, and consistent.

I am in no way an expert, this is simply my own opinion. This is also my first ever dynasty article. I used film, other articles, and just my own research to develop these rankings. Obviously post combine and post draft can change all of this but in the middle of February this is where I stand with the 2018 class. I think it provides great depth and upside at the position and should make for some exciting rookie seasons. Thanks for reading! Would love to get your rankings!
Last edited by Dynasty Addictz on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: Dynasty Addictz Pre Combine Rookie QB Ranks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:22 am

I'm kind of curious where you'd find passer rating under pressure for these QB's and past Qb prospects. Has it shown to be important?

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Re: Dynasty Addictz Pre Combine Rookie QB Ranks

Postby Dynasty Addictz » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:40 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:22 am I'm kind of curious where you'd find passer rating under pressure for these QB's and past Qb prospects. Has it shown to be important?
Pro football focus is usually where I find this info at! As for the question, while there is no direct connection of bust rate to under pressure passer rating there is some very interesting things that I found when I researched further after reading the Rosen stat. For example in 2017 Brady Mariota and Wentz were all 3 in the top 5 for highest passer rating under pressure. Now what do all these guys have in common? They are all good at taking care of the ball and not normally known for making many turnovers. Another in the top 5 was josh McCown who threw under 10 ints in 2017. Winston was also in the top 5 and he threw a career low 11 int this year. So while there’s no amazing data to make this an earth shattering statistic. I did find it worth noting when looking which nfl qbs performed well under pressure and more often than not found that it was qbs who take care of the ball. Which to me is an important trait to have going into the nfl!
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