Luck begins to throw

[FantasyFreak]

Out of curiosity, what are you willing to pay for Luck in draft capital in a 12 team standard?

All depends on team need, scoring, etc. I find it amusing that you refer to Luck as a throw in.

Seems so incredibly short sighted and centered on the redraft mentality of team management and player evaluation. Frankly, I was disappointed to see that remark from you Beast. In my opinion that line of thinking shows a general lack of patience, understanding of the position we are discussing, the player we are discussing, and the game we are playing.

To each their own.

Look at where his adp is, around guys like Alex Collins and Tarik Cohen. I think you’re hung up on the name. This isn’t a normal injury anymore and I’m surprised that isn’t apparent to all. Sure he might make a full recovery, but does that really seem like a high probability?

I would say no. I think he can still be an NFL starter, but I think the 40 TD upside is gone for good.

[jman3134]

^^ How can you possibly say that when he hasnt even thrown yet?

[FantasyFreak]

^^ How can you possibly say that when he hasnt even thrown yet?

That's why. Notice the part where it says "I think"? I'm not saying it as fact, but opinion. There is no historical reference that I can find to this situation, and I believe the signs are ominous. I can comfortably say I don't think Andrew Luck ever throws 40 TD's again. Doesn't mean he won't, I just don't think he will.

I find that the people putting up the biggest front to the idea that Luck will not regain his form tend to be Luck owners. I had Luck, sold him. My optimism on the outcome is obviously less than your. There is a risk and the possibility that he is not going to be the same player, that can't be disputed.

[jman3134]

My point isn't to challenge whether or not he will throw 40 TDs again. It's to challenge how we can comfortably say anything until he begins throwing. As far as I am concerned, he could throw 40 TDs, or his shoulder could cause him so much lingering pain that he retires in two years and fails to start most games. There's such a wide spectrum of possibilities and we really can't know until he takes that leap.

If you were to say the signs are ominous that he will have lingering pain and not be durable, you would probably have a case. Is that what you are saying? But why challenge how effective he can be presuming it does heal?

Edit: how I am thinking about it as an owner is that I could never possibly get the return I would be looking for via trade. So to me it is best to sink with the ship so to speak. I was a bit more positive seeing his body language at the last press conference, but that follows the resounding skepticism and fear I had after they were talking about trading TY. (Which is when I would have cut bait)

[FantasyFreak]

My point isn't to challenge whether or not he will throw 40 TDs again. It's to challenge how we can comfortably say anything until he begins throwing. As far as I am concerned, he could throw 40 TDs, or his shoulder could cause him so much lingering pain that he retires in two years and fails to start most games. There's such a wide spectrum of possibilities and we really can't know until he takes that leap.

If you were to say the signs are ominous that he will have lingering pain and not be durable, you would probably have a case. Is that what you are saying? But why challenge how effective he can be presuming it does heal?

Edit: how I am thinking about it as an owner is that I could never possibly get the return I would be looking for via trade. So to me it is best to sink with the ship so to speak. I was a bit more positive seeing his body language at the last press conference, but that follows the resounding skepticism and fear I had after they were talking about trading TY. (Which is when I would have cut bait)

Basically, and as a result will never hit that ceiling again. I sold him for Carr plus in a 1 QB league, but I had Watson as my other QB, so I was fine with it. I honestly hope he proves me wrong, I don't wish ill towards anyone just for the sake of being proven right.

[jman3134]

That's not bad return at all. I could never fetch that in my league, though owners in my league have been known to have very different values than consensus here.

Another thing is I have no incentive to promote an agenda on here, as no one in my league has found this site yet.

[ArrylT]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2326 ... bilitation

Article suggesting that one of the reasons the Colts moved from 3 to 6 was their comfort level in Lucks rehab.

[cazzie33]

A tennis ball.

Gotta crawl before you walk, right?

See Andrew...See Andrew walk...See Andrew run
.
.

What you haven't seen is Andrew throw a God dang football

And why is a tennis ball a better deal for Indy???
.
.

Because at least a tennis ball bounces back

[ArrylT]

cazzie's secret career as a childrens picture book author has just been revealed! Mo Willems?

It is sort of ironic (?) that Luck has been so unlucky?

[Phaded]

At the same time they've turned down multiple offers for Brissett.

[chopping mall]

At the same time they've turned down multiple offers for Brissett.

Right, everyone been treating the Colts trading down as confidence in Luck's rehab. Really, they already have a starting QB who knows their system and the second Luck is better they get an upgrade. This can easily be just like last year where they spend all year telling us he's about to come back and he never does or comes back late.

[Spinkso]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2326 ... bilitation

Article suggesting that one of the reasons the Colts moved from 3 to 6 was their comfort level in Lucks rehab.

To play devils advocate, weren't they comfortable with his rehab at this time last year as well? The Colts braintrust isn't hitting a high average at this point.

[ninotoreS]

I still think Luck is a future trade candidate for the Colts with Ballard as GM. They're just waiting for him to be fully healthy and playing on Sundays again, because otherwise they won't get the sale they want, of course. And with a 40 million dead-cap hit this year, they obviously can't cut him.

That they traded down this year doesn't mean much in my view, considering it's probable one of Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, and Rosen will still be on the board at 1.6... they could even sneakily be hoping for Lamar Jackson in the 2nd round. Or it could just mean they don't see any of this class's QBs as appetizing enough, and so they'll wait another year... which of course would align with the hypothetical optimal trade window for Luck. Also consider that Indy is likely to be in play for another early spot in the draft in '19, considering the state of their roster and that they might be the worst team in the AFC South now.

As I've opined around here a few times before, I suspect Chris Ballard wants to blow up Indy's roster and start over. If true, that would mean no desirable player off their rookie-contract is safe from being shopped, including injury prone, 29-in-September, slated-for-28-million-in-'19-and-'20 Andrew Luck. Heck, they could even cut him next year, and get back 15 million to spend in '19 (in contrast to this year).

[skip]

At the same time they've turned down multiple offers for Brissett.

Brissett also only makes about $800k a year. I wager there are very few (any?) backup QBs making so little. And I don't see that as a sign of anything aside from money. While he may know the system, does anyone honestly believe that Brissett should be on the field leading a team on Sunday afternoons? I certainly don't.

[Phaded]

I believe it is notable because as you mentioned, he really should not be a starting quarterback on a team but they are rejecting offers of a trade for him; which for a team like Indy would be a great idea to get some value out of a guy who is not your future. Indy needs to realize they need a full blown rebuild at this point. They have very little going for them. Yeah, he's not making much money - but to me it just points to a guy they want to keep around who performed "decently" for what is appearing to be the likely scenario that Luck is not ready in just over 4 months.