Hindsight is 20/20

[Madadamus]

Fantasy, especially dynasty, would be a lot different if you had a crystal ball. We sort of have our own crystal ball as owners, looking into the future and projecting stats from a single game, to a year, to one's career. It's what makes this hobby or passion, or whatever you want to call it so much fun.

I know some people don't like hypothetical questions, but I want rewind the clock for you guys just 3 years ago.

It's February 2015, fresh off the amazing 2014 WR class. We have Dez and Julio as the top WR's and top overall players according to ADP. But we also have this amazing RB class coming in. There's this guy Todd Gurley from Georgia who we waited for for a couple of years since he burst on the scene at Georgia. He's the best RB prospect we have seen in a long time, and the fantasy community is starved for RB's. Melvin Gordon is another hot name too, and they are 1st round locks despite Mel Kiper saying he would never draft a RB in the 1st round.

In those start-up drafts that year, Gurley was generally the consensus rookie 1.01, although Amari Cooper had it's supporters. But when Gurley was matched up to veterans like Julio Jones, it was Jones slam dunk -- no contest.

But what if you could re-do that start-up draft in 2015.

So my question to you all is, if you were given the opportunity, would you still draft a 26 year old Julio Jones over a 21 year old Todd Gurley knowing what you know today?

[Phaded]

Yeah, I still would.

[pokerface40]

Yes. You still had 3 years where Julio is more valuable, and could sell for a higher price, say 1.01 plus in 2016

[Madadamus]

Yes. You still had 3 years where Julio is more valuable, and could sell for a higher price, say 1.01 plus in 2016

Alright, my hypothetical had a loophole exploited there!

Say you couldn't trade, you had to plug them in your lineup for their entire career.

[pokerface40]

Yes. You still had 3 years where Julio is more valuable, and could sell for a higher price, say 1.01 plus in 2016

Alright, my hypothetical had a loophole exploited there!

Say you couldn't trade, you had to plug them in your lineup for their entire career.

I would leave a league if you weren't allowed to trade

[kamihamster]

so what you're really asking is. would you trade the 1.01 now for OBJ?

[skip]

It's 2018 and I'd still draft Julio ahead of Gurley. No way in hell would I have made such a trade 3 years ago.

[dynastyninja]

Gurley easily here over Julio.

Gurley single-handedly won people championships this year with his late-season performance. If you made the playoffs with Gurley you were virtually a lock to win the title. Julio was a guy who got you to the championship game, but not necessarily won it for you (2015 maybe). Plus Gurley is 23 in a high-powered offense and Julio is 29, so you have a lot more long-term value from Gurley.

[AussieMate]

Depends, am I a contender for those 3 years. Am I rebuilding? If I had a decent team it would be Julio all day still, if rebuilding it would be gurley.

[dynastyninja]

A little analysis to back up my Gurley assertion. This is patched together because I couldn't find a single source for every year.

I looked up what percentage of championship teams had a certain player for 2015-2017. Here is how Julio and Gurley stacked up:

Gurley
2015 - under 19% (can only find top 10)
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 47.1%

Julio
2015 - 20.1%
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 20.2%

So basically, the highest owner share Julio has had among championship teams in any year is 20.2%. Gurley's was an amazing 47.1%.

These numbers aren't perfect, but they illustrate my point. In 2015 Julio was better but not dominant. They both had little playoff impact on championships in 2016, and 2017 Gurley was owned by 47.1% of championship teams.

Gurley this year was the closest thing we've seen to a lock for a championship. Also, at the end of 2017 you're set with a 23 year old RB over a 29 year old WR.

[Phaded]

Except it happens every year with players that get hot during the fantasy playoffs and win it for you. It just so happened in 2017, it was a player who also had a great season.

You build your team to win during the season and then hope you get lucky in the playoffs. Your numbers illustrate that Gurley's 2017 was clearly an outlier, not common place.

[dynastyninja]

Except it happens every year with players that get hot during the fantasy playoffs and win it for you. It just so happened in 2017, it was a player who also had a great season.

You build your team to win during the season and then hope you get lucky in the playoffs. Your numbers illustrate that Gurley's 2017 was clearly an outlier, not common place.

I definitely understand what you mean, but hindsight completely changes things. I 100% agree that you build to win during the season and hope to get lucky during the playoffs. Here we know exactly how to get lucky during the playoffs.

Julio never single-handedly won a championship. If you had him you had a 20% chance at winning it all. Owning Gurley in 2017 meant you were a coin flip away from winning.

[Vcize]

A little analysis to back up my Gurley assertion. This is patched together because I couldn't find a single source for every year.

I looked up what percentage of championship teams had a certain player for 2015-2017. Here is how Julio and Gurley stacked up:

Gurley
2015 - under 19% (can only find top 10)
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 47.1%

Julio
2015 - 20.1%
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 20.2%

So basically, the highest owner share Julio has had among championship teams in any year is 20.2%. Gurley's was an amazing 47.1%.

These numbers aren't perfect, but they illustrate my point. In 2015 Julio was better but not dominant. They both had little playoff impact on championships in 2016, and 2017 Gurley was owned by 47.1% of championship teams.

Gurley this year was the closest thing we've seen to a lock for a championship. Also, at the end of 2017 you're set with a 23 year old RB over a 29 year old WR.

Great info. How did you get the data on this?

[dynastyninja]

A little analysis to back up my Gurley assertion. This is patched together because I couldn't find a single source for every year.

I looked up what percentage of championship teams had a certain player for 2015-2017. Here is how Julio and Gurley stacked up:

Gurley
2015 - under 19% (can only find top 10)
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 47.1%

Julio
2015 - 20.1%
2016 - under 15.7% (can only find top 10)
2017 - 20.2%

So basically, the highest owner share Julio has had among championship teams in any year is 20.2%. Gurley's was an amazing 47.1%.

These numbers aren't perfect, but they illustrate my point. In 2015 Julio was better but not dominant. They both had little playoff impact on championships in 2016, and 2017 Gurley was owned by 47.1% of championship teams.

Gurley this year was the closest thing we've seen to a lock for a championship. Also, at the end of 2017 you're set with a 23 year old RB over a 29 year old WR.

Great info. How did you get the data on this?

Had to patch it together. Links below:

2015: http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/st ... ng-rosters

2016: http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000769029

2017: http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000902425

[Tvols]

With this being hindsight and have knowledge of this information I would take Julio hands down back then ..


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