The 2014 wr class affect

[Vcize]

ok but draft capital does not always correlate with success. First round receivers like Breshad Perriman, Pihlip Dorsett, Josh Doctston, Treadwell, Agholor, Ross, Mike Williams, have all been massive disappointments. Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.

You're making my point for me. The mistake with the 2014 rookie WR class (and the several just before it) was that a short run of successful WRs led people to overrate the likelihood of 1st round WRs producing. Now you're doing the exact same thing with RBs after a short run of success, which comes at an even smaller sample size (there have only been 5 RBs drafted in the 1st round the last three years, so not exactly a significant sample).

Here are the 1st round RBs prior to that short run of a whopping FIVE guys.

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Beanie Wells
Donald Brown

You're letting a short run of quality RBs conflate your opinion of how likely they are to hit just like people let a short run of quality WRs centered around 2014 do the same. I think you're literally making the exact mistake you are chastizing people for making in the title of the thread.

Besides, the whole point is moot anyway. We're not comparing first round RBs to first round WRs. Barkley and Guice are by far the consensus 1 and 2 picks. We're comparing second and even THIRD (maybe even FOURTH!!!!) round RBs to 1st round WRs. And if you look at the list of those guys historically you will see how catastrophically unlikely it is for those guys to work out, but you're letting this glorious 2017 that included guys like Hunt and Kamara cloud your reality the same way that the 2014 WR class clouded people's reality about WRs.

Demaryius and Hopkins I agree they were elite wr prospects with very few flaws. There are no elite receivers that were even close to the caliber of either of those two players.

Untrue, hindsight. DT and Hopkins as prospects had at least as many flaws as this year's top WRs, if not more. There will likely be two maybe even three WRs that NFL teams invest more capital into this year than they invested into those guys. And much like the hindsight above, 3 years from now if one of them hits you'll be using revisionist history to say "well yea obviously Ridley was an elite prospect" the same way you're using hindsight to say that about DT and Hopkins.

Bottom line, like I said above, I think Ayou're taking home all the wrong lessons from the 2014 WR class and people's reaction to it. You're repeating the mistakes of the 2014 WR class.

DD is on the money here. Evaluate each prospect individually. Stop trying to follow these silly short term trends that take you down a false path and leave you holding a bunch of junk in your hands because you mistook a short term outlier for a long-term trend.

[bsp27]

ok but draft capital does not always correlate with success. First round receivers like Breshad Perriman, Pihlip Dorsett, Josh Doctston, Treadwell, Agholor, Ross, Mike Williams, have all been massive disappointments. Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.

You're making my point for me. The mistake with the 2014 rookie WR class (and the several just before it) was that a short run of successful WRs led people to overrate the likelihood of 1st round WRs producing. Now you're doing the exact same thing with RBs after a short run of success, which comes at an even smaller sample size (there have only been 5 RBs drafted in the 1st round the last three years, so not exactly a significant sample).

Here are the 1st round RBs prior to that short run of a whopping FIVE guys.

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Beanie Wells
Donald Brown

You're letting a short run of quality RBs conflate your opinion of how likely they are to hit just like people let a short run of quality WRs centered around 2014 do the same. I think you're literally making the exact mistake you are chastizing people for making in the title of the thread.

Besides, the whole point is moot anyway. We're not comparing first round RBs to first round WRs. Barkley and Guice are by far the consensus 1 and 2 picks. We're comparing second and even THIRD (maybe even FOURTH!!!!) round RBs to 1st round WRs. And if you look at the list of those guys historically you will see how catastrophically unlikely it is for those guys to work out, but you're letting this glorious 2017 that included guys like Hunt and Kamara cloud your reality the same way that the 2014 WR class clouded people's reality about WRs.

Demaryius and Hopkins I agree they were elite wr prospects with very few flaws. There are no elite receivers that were even close to the caliber of either of those two players.

Untrue, hindsight. DT and Hopkins as prospects had at least as many flaws as this year's top WRs, if not more. There will likely be two maybe even three WRs that NFL teams invest more capital into this year than they invested into those guys. And much like the hindsight above, 3 years from now if one of them hits you'll be using revisionist history to say "well yea obviously Ridley was an elite prospect" the same way you're using hindsight to say that about DT and Hopkins.

Bottom line, like I said above, I think Ayou're taking home all the wrong lessons from the 2014 WR class and people's reaction to it. You're repeating the mistakes of the 2014 WR class.

DD is on the money here. Evaluate each prospect individually. Stop trying to follow these silly short term trends that take you down a false path and leave you holding a bunch of junk in your hands because you mistook a short term outlier for a long-term trend.

Yes, but you can't deny that in recent years, coaches have begun to give much more opportunity to rookies. We are seeing more and more often rb's in recent years walk in and immediately get handed full time roles. 10 years ago, that was not the case.

In no way am I expecting rb's in this class to produce even similarly to the ones of the 2017 class. I agree that all rb's aren't guarantee hits, and that outliers exist. But the point remains, that drafting rb's over wr's should be a priority. And my entire point in this thread is that rb's should be prioritized in rookie drafts over wide receivers.

Writing for FiveThirtyEight.com, Neil Paine and Allison McCann discovered that running backs drafted in round 1-3 had a higher probability of out-producing their draft capital investment than wide receivers selected in rounds 1-3.

Attached below is a chart that reveals the probability of running backs and wide receivers outproducing their draft position, and rb's (especialy round rb's) clearly have a higher hit rate.

And this isn't even including the fact that Rb's plateau at age 25-26, while wr's reach their peak at age 28-29. It's much wiser to leverage the prime years of running backs by drafting them in rookie drafts.

So, factually speaking, running backs have a much higher hit rate than receivers over the last 34 years. It's really very simple.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

But most people would draft a 1st round RB over a 1st round WR. So the question is (that I think you are raising, otherwise what on earth are you talking about) is whether you should be taking 2nd, 3rd or even 4th round RB's over a 1st round WR. According to the chart you posted, a receiver taken in round 1 has a better chance of outproducing their draft capital then a running back in round 2. You're posting charts that counter your own argument.

[Vcize]

Yes, but you can't deny that in recent years, coaches have begun to give much more opportunity to rookies. We are seeing more and more often rb's in recent years walk in and immediately get handed full time roles. 10 years ago, that was not the case.

And over and over again you keep making the same mistake that people were making with the 2014 WR class.

Are coaches giving more opportunity to rookie RBs nowadays or did the rookie RBs of the 2017 class just earn more carries because they were an outlier good class?

In the 3 years prior to 2017 there were 21 RBs drafted in the first three rounds and 7 of them (33%) have received 150+ carries in a season.

In the 3 year stretch ten years ago there were 25 RBs drafted in the first three rounds and 11 of them (44%) had received 150+ carries in a season at similar points in their career.

And yes, I accounted for the current crop still going. IE since the guys in 2016 have only played two years I only counted the first 2 years of the class 10 years earlier, etc.

It's just that in 2017 six of the eight (75%) were given a huge role out of the gate. Because they were really good players. That is not indicative of some trend that has existed "lately" with RBs. It has existed once lately, amongst a sea of much more normal usage.

So again, we have you conflating last year's outlier class with a greater trend that simply does not exist. If we raise the carry threshold to an even higher number the case doesn't get any better for recent years either.

In no way am I expecting rb's in this class to produce even similarly to the ones of the 2017 class. I agree that all rb's aren't guarantee hits, and that outliers exist. But the point remains, that drafting rb's over wr's should be a priority. And my entire point in this thread is that rb's should be prioritized in rookie drafts over wide receivers.

Writing for FiveThirtyEight.com, Neil Paine and Allison McCann discovered that running backs drafted in round 1-3 had a higher probability of out-producing their draft capital investment than wide receivers selected in rounds 1-3.

Attached below is a chart that reveals the probability of running backs and wide receivers outproducing their draft position, and rb's (especialy round rb's) clearly have a higher hit rate.

And this isn't even including the fact that Rb's plateau at age 25-26, while wr's reach their peak at age 28-29. It's much wiser to leverage the prime years of running backs by drafting them in rookie drafts.

So, factually speaking, running backs have a much higher hit rate than receivers over the last 34 years. It's really very simple.

And that would be great if we were comparing 1st round RBs to 1st round WRs, 2nd round RBs to 2nd round WRs, etc. But we're not. We're essentially comparing guys that are at minimum 2nd, but in some cases 3rd round RBs with 1st round WRs. And in that comparison those charts tell a different story.

So again you're not using the charts that say round 1 WR > round 2/round 3 RB based on years of charted data. You're using the 2017 class that says round 2/round 3 RBs > round 1 WRs based on one recent year of bias. Which, once again, is exactly the mistake you were railing against with the 2014 WR class.

[clarion contrarion]

SUMMARY : wait until people are frothing at the mouth with draft rabies and trade your picks for proven players !

[Phaded]

This thread is dumb and has a very poor argument, especially when relying on a very small sample size and ignoring the countless 1st round RB busts before that.

But go ahead.. Use your strategy and fail.

[jp67]

Is this Matt Kelly

[bsp27]

Yes, but you can't deny that in recent years, coaches have begun to give much more opportunity to rookies. We are seeing more and more often rb's in recent years walk in and immediately get handed full time roles. 10 years ago, that was not the case.

And over and over again you keep making the same mistake that people were making with the 2014 WR class.

Are coaches giving more opportunity to rookie RBs nowadays or did the rookie RBs of the 2017 class just earn more carries because they were an outlier good class?

In the 3 years prior to 2017 there were 21 RBs drafted in the first three rounds and 7 of them (33%) have received 150+ carries in a season.

In the 3 year stretch ten years ago there were 25 RBs drafted in the first three rounds and 11 of them (44%) had received 150+ carries in a season at similar points in their career.

And yes, I accounted for the current crop still going. IE since the guys in 2016 have only played two years I only counted the first 2 years of the class 10 years earlier, etc.

It's just that in 2017 six of the eight (75%) were given a huge role out of the gate. Because they were really good players. That is not indicative of some trend that has existed "lately" with RBs. It has existed once lately, amongst a sea of much more normal usage.

So again, we have you conflating last year's outlier class with a greater trend that simply does not exist. If we raise the carry threshold to an even higher number the case doesn't get any better for recent years either.

In no way am I expecting rb's in this class to produce even similarly to the ones of the 2017 class. I agree that all rb's aren't guarantee hits, and that outliers exist. But the point remains, that drafting rb's over wr's should be a priority. And my entire point in this thread is that rb's should be prioritized in rookie drafts over wide receivers.

Writing for FiveThirtyEight.com, Neil Paine and Allison McCann discovered that running backs drafted in round 1-3 had a higher probability of out-producing their draft capital investment than wide receivers selected in rounds 1-3.

Attached below is a chart that reveals the probability of running backs and wide receivers outproducing their draft position, and rb's (especialy round rb's) clearly have a higher hit rate.

And this isn't even including the fact that Rb's plateau at age 25-26, while wr's reach their peak at age 28-29. It's much wiser to leverage the prime years of running backs by drafting them in rookie drafts.

So, factually speaking, running backs have a much higher hit rate than receivers over the last 34 years. It's really very simple.

And that would be great if we were comparing 1st round RBs to 1st round WRs, 2nd round RBs to 2nd round WRs, etc. But we're not. We're essentially comparing guys that are at minimum 2nd, but in some cases 3rd round RBs with 1st round WRs. And in that comparison those charts tell a different story.

So again you're not using the charts that say round 1 WR > round 2/round 3 RB based on years of charted data. You're using the 2017 class that says round 2/round 3 RBs > round 1 WRs based on one recent year of bias. Which, once again, is exactly the mistake you were railing against with the 2014 WR class.

how do you think the first round of rookie drafts should play out?

[df_sarc]

Every RB drafted in the 1st round from 2009-2016. Ugly.

2009 Knowshon Moreno Broncos
2009 Donald Brown Colts
2009 Beanie Wells Cardinals
2010 CJ Spiller
2010 Ryan Mathews Chargers
2010 Jahvid Best Lions
2011 Mark Ingram Saints
2012 Trent Richardson Browns
2012 Doug Martin Buccaneers
2012 David Wilson Giants
2015 Todd Gurley Rams
2015 Melvin Gordon Chargers

[Cameron Giles]

The problem with RB's is that they get injured more often than WR's and their roles are typically replaceable. They also share downs with cheaper RB's, who can become league winners in any given year. Plus, you need a good offensive line to create lanes.

No position is fullproof, so it's a mistake to go all-in on one and ignore the other.

[BustedCoverage]

I always draft rb heavy and buy low on wr prospects that I like that stumble out of the gate. Davis is my main target this offseason.

[dynastyninja]

Every RB drafted in the 1st round from 2009-2016. Ugly.

2009 Knowshon Moreno Broncos
2009 Donald Brown Colts
2009 Beanie Wells Cardinals
2010 CJ Spiller
2010 Ryan Mathews Chargers
2010 Jahvid Best Lions
2011 Mark Ingram Saints
2012 Trent Richardson Browns
2012 Doug Martin Buccaneers
2012 David Wilson Giants
2015 Todd Gurley Rams
2015 Melvin Gordon Chargers

Where's Zeke in 2016?

[nathanq42]

Build a balanced team and draft BPA. I drafted Evans, bought obj and arob, picked up Jones and Agholor off the WW, I find that on a week to week basis WRs are less consistent and impactful thanRBs of similar calliber. I paid for young high end WRs because now I know I am basically set for the foreseeable future. I recently bought DJ for Julio and scraps. I traded for a couple picks in the top 7, Imma be taking two backs to balance out my team, then from there on out I'll be drafting BPA without a care in the world about how a draft class is composed.

I personally think most RBs in this class are better than most WRs, only couple WRs I think should be top 10 are Washington, Moore, and Ridley/kirk/Sutton depending on the combine.

Looking back I think the 2014 WRs didn't push mediocre we talents into the first round, it declared WRs that don't have an immediate impact busts, like how the recent run of effective RBs are going to declare slow starting RBs busts.

Key is balance, patience, and luck.

[ArrylT]

Every RB drafted in the 1st round from 2009-2016. Ugly.

2009 Knowshon Moreno Broncos
2009 Donald Brown Colts
2009 Beanie Wells Cardinals
2010 CJ Spiller
2010 Ryan Mathews Chargers
2010 Jahvid Best Lions
2011 Mark Ingram Saints
2012 Trent Richardson Browns
2012 Doug Martin Buccaneers
2012 David Wilson Giants
2015 Todd Gurley Rams
2015 Melvin Gordon Chargers

Where's Zeke in 2016?

Maybe he hates the Dallas Cowboys (like lots of us do) and tries to pretend they do not exist.

[bsp27]

Every RB drafted in the 1st round from 2009-2016. Ugly.

2009 Knowshon Moreno Broncos
2009 Donald Brown Colts
2009 Beanie Wells Cardinals
2010 CJ Spiller
2010 Ryan Mathews Chargers
2010 Jahvid Best Lions
2011 Mark Ingram Saints
2012 Trent Richardson Browns
2012 Doug Martin Buccaneers
2012 David Wilson Giants
2015 Todd Gurley Rams
2015 Melvin Gordon Chargers

not as ugly as the wr's lol


2009 Heyward-Bey
2009 Crabtree
2009 Maclin
2009 Harvin
2009 Nicks
2009 Britt
2010 Demaryius
2010 Dez
2011 Green
2011 Julio
2011 Jon Baldwin
2012 Blackmon
2012 Floyd
2012 Wright
2012 Jenkins
2013 Austin
2013 Hopkins
2013 Patterson
2014 we all know
2015 Cooper
2015 White
2015 Parker
2015 Agholor
2015 Perriman
2015 Dorsett
2016 Coleman
2016 Fuller
2016 Treadwell
2017 Corey Davis
2017 John Ross
2017 Mike Williams