You're making my point for me. The mistake with the 2014 rookie WR class (and the several just before it) was that a short run of successful WRs led people to overrate the likelihood of 1st round WRs producing. Now you're doing the exact same thing with RBs after a short run of success, which comes at an even smaller sample size (there have only been 5 RBs drafted in the 1st round the last three years, so not exactly a significant sample).benpickering44 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm ok but draft capital does not always correlate with success. First round receivers like Breshad Perriman, Pihlip Dorsett, Josh Doctston, Treadwell, Agholor, Ross, Mike Williams, have all been massive disappointments. Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.
Here are the 1st round RBs prior to that short run of a whopping FIVE guys.
Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Mark Ingram
CJ Spiller
Ryan Mathews
Jahvid Best
Knowshon Moreno
Beanie Wells
Donald Brown
You're letting a short run of quality RBs conflate your opinion of how likely they are to hit just like people let a short run of quality WRs centered around 2014 do the same. I think you're literally making the exact mistake you are chastizing people for making in the title of the thread.
Besides, the whole point is moot anyway. We're not comparing first round RBs to first round WRs. Barkley and Guice are by far the consensus 1 and 2 picks. We're comparing second and even THIRD (maybe even FOURTH!!!!) round RBs to 1st round WRs. And if you look at the list of those guys historically you will see how catastrophically unlikely it is for those guys to work out, but you're letting this glorious 2017 that included guys like Hunt and Kamara cloud your reality the same way that the 2014 WR class clouded people's reality about WRs.
Untrue, hindsight. DT and Hopkins as prospects had at least as many flaws as this year's top WRs, if not more. There will likely be two maybe even three WRs that NFL teams invest more capital into this year than they invested into those guys. And much like the hindsight above, 3 years from now if one of them hits you'll be using revisionist history to say "well yea obviously Ridley was an elite prospect" the same way you're using hindsight to say that about DT and Hopkins.benpickering44 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pmDemaryius and Hopkins I agree they were elite wr prospects with very few flaws. There are no elite receivers that were even close to the caliber of either of those two players.
Bottom line, like I said above, I think Ayou're taking home all the wrong lessons from the 2014 WR class and people's reaction to it. You're repeating the mistakes of the 2014 WR class.
DD is on the money here. Evaluate each prospect individually. Stop trying to follow these silly short term trends that take you down a false path and leave you holding a bunch of junk in your hands because you mistook a short term outlier for a long-term trend.