The 2014 wr class affect

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bsp27
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The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:08 pm

It seems to me that people are still grossly overrating first round receivers in rookie drafts, despite the fact that Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross were consensus first rounders last year. Looking at the first 16 players by adp in the 2017 rookie class, it included stud running backs like Kamara, Fournette, Mccaffrey, Cook, Hunt, Mixon. 5 of these players had their values increase dramatically, mainly because high draft pick running backs are essentially locked into a voluminous role as rookies. Not to mention that running backs generally peak at about age 26, with their primes being in the age 21-25 seasons. Wide receivers, inversely, enjoy longer careers, often times being productive into their mid 30's, with the peak being in the late twenties. It seems obvious to me that we should be leveraging the young running back years by hoarding rb's in rookie drafts, and investing in receivers in start-ups / trades. People still seem to be opting for receivers this year in rookie drafts, yet again.

Courtland Sutton was outproduced by slot receiver Trey Quinn, and only produced against terrible competition. He has suspect athleticism (but the combine will prove athleticism). Calvin Ridley is an old and relatively unproductive slot receiver, and James Washington is a polarizing deep threat with route running capability questions.

To me, it is absolutely asinine to consider any of the these wide receivers in the top 5 picks this year.

My top 10 would look something like this:

1. Barkley
2. Guice
3. Chubb
4. Penny
5. Michel
6. Jones
7. Freeman
8. Walton
9. Kelly
10. DJ Moore


Thoughts?
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby Vcize » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:20 pm

My thoughts are that 3 years from now we'll have a similar thread called "The 2017 RB class effect".

Guys like Chubb and Penny are looking like 3rd or 4th round NFL picks and we're talking about the consensus wanting them in fantasy ahead of WRs who will likely be 1st rounders, in some cases maybe top 15 or even top 10 picks. If that's not chasing the points of Kamara and Hunt the same way people were chasing the points of the 2014 WRs then I don't know what is.

I am and always have been a hardcore RB guy, even in that few year stretch where the consensus was that WRs ruled all, but this reminds me of the last time people were this gaga about RBs and were chasing the Ben Tate and Montarrio Hardesty and Montee Ball's of the world while the Demaryius Thomas' and DeAndre Hopkins' slipped to the middle or even mid-late 1st round of rookie drafts.

ETA: As an aside I have no idea what you're talking about when you say "people this year tend to be opting for WRs in rookie drafts yet again" when the consensus is far and away that everyone wants this year's RBs and could almost care less about the WRs.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby Vcize » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:31 pm

Bottom line is I think people are looking at the 2014 WR class and saying "we need to learn from our mistake", but they're learning from the wrong mistake. The mistake wasn't that WRs are a weak asset in rookie drafts. The mistake was that we shouldn't be judging the importance of an entire position based off of one year or even a short several year run. It appears that very few have actually learned from the correct mistake.
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QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:35 pm

I see you've listened to the rotounderworld podcast.

I appreciate the sentiment (I was one of the first to say Rb's were going to come back in style) but the problem is when people start making up these lazy generalized rules. "Zero RB!" and now it's "Zero WR!". Rarely is it one size fits all. You can look at previous draft classes and they don't remotely resemble 2017 which is an outlier! Everyone knew the 2016 class was crap. People weren't all that excited about the 2017 class either, there's a reason why Mike Williams (a prototypical-size WR1 drafted in the top 10) was going around 1.06. There's a reason why Perriman was going mid-late 1st and DGB late-1st even early 2nd sometimes b/c ppl knew they were projects. John Ross was routinely going in the 2nd round in many drafts. It's completely revisionist history to say ppl were going gaga over these WR's. You don't want a WR, fine. But then which RB do you pick. Sure, 2017 says you pick ANY RB and you're gold but that's not reality. Most classes is 50% at best you get anything useful and usually it's a lot worse than that. Your argument is to take players like Yeldon, Abdullah, Montee Ball, Tre Mason, Matt Jones, CJ Prosise etc etc etc over guys like Corey Davis. It might work and you get Kamara but it might not and you get Sankey. You would say to draft Perine over Mike Williams but where would that have gotten you. Having any type of plan revolving around a coin flip at best is no plan at all. Evaluate each class and draft players accordingly.

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm

Vcize wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:20 pm My thoughts are that 3 years from now we'll have a similar thread called "The 2017 RB class effect".

Guys like Chubb and Penny are looking like 3rd or 4th round NFL picks and we're talking about the consensus wanting them in fantasy ahead of WRs who will likely be 1st rounders, in some cases maybe top 15 or even top 10 picks. If that's not chasing the points of Kamara and Hunt the same way people were chasing the points of the 2014 WRs then I don't know what is.

I am and always have been a hardcore RB guy, even in that few year stretch where the consensus was that WRs ruled all, but this reminds me of the last time people were this gaga about RBs and were chasing the Ben Tate and Montarrio Hardesty and Montee Ball's of the world while the Demaryius Thomas' and DeAndre Hopkins' slipped to the middle or even mid-late 1st round of rookie drafts.

ETA: As an aside I have no idea what you're talking about when you say "people this year tend to be opting for WRs in rookie drafts yet again" when the consensus is far and away that everyone wants this year's RBs and could almost care less about the WRs.
ok but draft capital does not always correlate with success. First round receivers like Breshad Perriman, Pihlip Dorsett, Josh Doctston, Treadwell, Agholor, Ross, Mike Williams, have all been massive disappointments. Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.

Demaryius and Hopkins I agree they were elite wr prospects with very few flaws. There are no elite receivers that were even close to the caliber of either of those two players.

I'm saying that receivers in rookie drafts are being overvalued. People clearly value the receivers highly, as Sutton is drafted as the third player, and Ridley, Kirk, Washington are all top 10 rookie picks.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:57 pm

Vcize wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:31 pm Bottom line is I think people are looking at the 2014 WR class and saying "we need to learn from our mistake", but they're learning from the wrong mistake. The mistake wasn't that WRs are a weak asset in rookie drafts. The mistake was that we shouldn't be judging the importance of an entire position based off of one year or even a short several year run. It appears that very few have actually learned from the correct mistake.
I somewhat agree with this but there is clearly a much larger sample size of first round receiver busts than first round rb busts. Rb's have always been the ideal targets in rookie drafts, its just that the 2014 wr class was such a great outlier that people have been chasing that every year since.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:59 pm

The “effect” from the 2014 class is that when WRs don’t immediately tear up the league we now assume they’re busts, when we used to always think WRs took 2-3 years to become reliable starters.
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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:01 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:35 pm I see you've listened to the rotounderworld podcast.

I appreciate the sentiment (I was one of the first to say Rb's were going to come back in style) but the problem is when people start making up these lazy generalized rules. "Zero RB!" and now it's "Zero WR!". Rarely is it one size fits all. You can look at previous draft classes and they don't remotely resemble 2017 which is an outlier! Everyone knew the 2016 class was crap. People weren't all that excited about the 2017 class either, there's a reason why Mike Williams (a prototypical-size WR1 drafted in the top 10) was going around 1.06. There's a reason why Perriman was going mid-late 1st and DGB late-1st even early 2nd sometimes b/c ppl knew they were projects. John Ross was routinely going in the 2nd round in many drafts. It's completely revisionist history to say ppl were going gaga over these WR's. You don't want a WR, fine. But then which RB do you pick. Sure, 2017 says you pick ANY RB and you're gold but that's not reality. Most classes is 50% at best you get anything useful and usually it's a lot worse than that. Your argument is to take players like Yeldon, Abdullah, Montee Ball, Tre Mason, Matt Jones, CJ Prosise etc etc etc over guys like Corey Davis. It might work and you get Kamara but it might not and you get Sankey. You would say to draft Perine over Mike Williams but where would that have gotten you. Having any type of plan revolving around a coin flip at best is no plan at all. Evaluate each class and draft players accordingly.
I never implied that all running backs are 100% guarantee producers. I am saying that there is a higher bust rate for wr's in the first round of drafts, compared to rb's.

And I would never take a JAG rb over an elite prospect like Corey Davis. There is no wr in this class that is remotely close to the prospect that Davis was.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:04 pm

And to clarify a bit more: my proposition is not to take all rb's over all wr's every single year. It is that this year, specifically, we should be drafting the rb's ahead of the receivers, mainly because of the quality of the rb's and how underwhelming the receiver prospects are.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:20 pm

benpickering44 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.
Because in today's nfl teams don't draft RB's in the 1st round unless they're elite elite prospects. From a fantasy standpoint, no there haven't been any busts. But I'd argue CMC is more receiver than running back and Melvin Gordon is the 2nd coming of Trent Richardson, the only difference being the Chargers stuck with Gordon whereas the Browns were able to ditch TRich for a 1st. In any event, a sample size of 3 years is nothing to hang your hat on. A few years ago you'd be telling us to avoid RB's and draft WR's using the same logic.

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:25 pm

benpickering44 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I never implied that all running backs are 100% guarantee producers. I am saying that there is a higher bust rate for wr's in the first round of drafts, compared to rb's.
Compared to WHICH rb's though?

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby drbuttermaker » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:21 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:59 pm The “effect” from the 2014 class is that when WRs don’t immediately tear up the league we now assume they’re busts, when we used to always think WRs took 2-3 years to become reliable starters.
This cannot be said too loudly nor often.

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:27 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:25 pm
benpickering44 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I never implied that all running backs are 100% guarantee producers. I am saying that there is a higher bust rate for wr's in the first round of drafts, compared to rb's.
Compared to WHICH rb's though?
literally all first round rb's in the last 10+ years.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:29 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:20 pm
benpickering44 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.
Because in today's nfl teams don't draft RB's in the 1st round unless they're elite elite prospects. From a fantasy standpoint, no there haven't been any busts. But I'd argue CMC is more receiver than running back and Melvin Gordon is the 2nd coming of Trent Richardson, the only difference being the Chargers stuck with Gordon whereas the Browns were able to ditch TRich for a 1st. In any event, a sample size of 3 years is nothing to hang your hat on. A few years ago you'd be telling us to avoid RB's and draft WR's using the same logic.
no? One large point is how talented this rb class is and how underwhelming the wr class is. The recent rb classes have been vastly superior to the wr ones, yet the wr's are still drafted extremely highly.
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant

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Re: The 2014 wr class affect

Postby bsp27 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:32 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:20 pm
benpickering44 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm Are there any running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft the last 3 years that were colossall busts? The bust rate for firt round receivers is clearly much greater than running backs.
Because in today's nfl teams don't draft RB's in the 1st round unless they're elite elite prospects. From a fantasy standpoint, no there haven't been any busts. But I'd argue CMC is more receiver than running back and Melvin Gordon is the 2nd coming of Trent Richardson, the only difference being the Chargers stuck with Gordon whereas the Browns were able to ditch TRich for a 1st. In any event, a sample size of 3 years is nothing to hang your hat on. A few years ago you'd be telling us to avoid RB's and draft WR's using the same logic.
my point is about this current year's rookie class too. I'd be curious to see how you think the first round of rookie drafts should play out
Superflex tight-end premium team:
Qb: Kyler Murray, Dak Presscott, Sam Darnold,
Rb: Derrick Henry, Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Dexter Williams, Brian Hill
Wr: Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Tre'Quan Smith, Daesean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Trey Quin, Snead,
Te: TJ Hockensen, Gesicki, Hurst

1 2020 first, 1 2020 2nd, 1 2020 3rd, 1 2020 4th

Devy superflex
Qb: Cousins, Prescott, Lamar Jackson
Rb: Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead,, Mcguire, Edwards
Wr: Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Tre'quan Smith, John Brown, Carlos Henderson, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Taywan Taylor, Leonte Carroo, Antonio Callaway
Te: David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Mark Andrews,

devy: Deondre Francois, Cam Akers, Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, Sewo Olonilua, Jalen Reagor, Peoples-Jones, Noah Fant


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